I play roughly 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a strange slate for two reasons. First, it was perhaps the worst RB pool I’ve ever played – outside of James Robinson. And second, we had plenty of money to spend but not much to spend it on at the high end.
MY MUST PLAYS
* DeVante Parker was in play for cash at $4300 before Jaylen Waddle (COVID) was ruled out. Without Waddle’s 8.7 targets before game, Parker became a lock. He is an alpha talent facing the NFL’s worst pass defense by most metrics.
* It was a perfect storm for James Robinson. Carlos Hyde (concussion) was out, Urban Meyer was gone, and the Jags were actually favored in a home game against the Texans. Although we bet unders on James Robinson props, the fact that the line was even set at 109.5 total yards for a guy priced at $5400 spoke volumes. Robinson’s spot stuck out even more because this was the worst RB slate I’ve been a part of.
* Gabriel Davis was priced as if Emmanuel Sanders (out, knee) was in. I also consider Davis a significantly better player at this point in their careers – Davis had a rock solid 16% target per route run on the season and was a clear priority for Josh Allen in the red zone. Given the Bills’ pass rate and the tough individual matchup for Stef Diggs, this wasn’t a spot I could pass on.
MY WANT PLAYS
* Most of the teams I looked at Sunday morning had Jeff Wilson. Some had Najee Harris. If I could have, I would have only played one running back – they were all such clear poor plays other than James Robinson. In the end, I wanted to attack this historically bad Jets defense and let the chips fall.
I was aware that Myles Gaskin did not get activated off COVID until Friday and I was aware of the shaky Brian Flores quotes regarding Gaskin. But with only street free agent Duke Johnson and forgotten man Salvon Ahmed in the mix, I thought Gaskin’s early-down role at a minimum was safe.
* The only tight ends I considered were James O’Shaughnessy, CJ Uzomah, and Mike Gesicki. I did not want to pay $7500 at the position for George Kittle, whose target floor is very low for that tag. I did look at lineups which used O’Shag to get up from Dak Prescott to Kyler Murray or Josh Allen, but it wasn’t a clean 2v2.
So I was fine to go with Gesicki, adding another WR to my lineup in the TE spot. He has a low floor for $5000, but the ceiling is not comparable to the Oshag/Uzomah types.
* I played around with four different QBs – Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and Josh Allen. It’s rare that a quarterback is a “last piece” of a lineup, but that’s what it was for me this week. Paying full prices for Allen/Kyler was fine, paying down for Tua was fine, and somewhere in the middle for Dak was fine as well. I was only concerned with pass volume for Dak, not efficiency.
* The Diontae Johnson projection is tough. Paying $7500 for someone with such a bad quarterback and such a low yard per target rate isn’t great. But in cash, the safety of Johnson’s outrageous target volume is worth a lot. In hindsight, perhaps a different defense and Stef Diggs would have been stronger, but something has been off with Diggs all year. I actually preferred Diontae straight up.
* On an ugly slate like this, I often think it’s worth overpaying for floor and slate-breakers. That describes Davante Adams every week, but especially against a decimated Ravens secondary. Rostering someone who is so likely to get 15 points when literally no other skill player on the slate has that floor goes a long way.
* There wasn’t a priority defense for me this week. The Cowboys were my favorite, but I’m almost never spending $3600 at D/ST. I was fine with Jaguars, Texans, Bengals, Broncos, Bills, 49ers. Given my choice of those (as I had in this construction), I preferred the Bills at home against the corpse of Cam Newton for a lot of dropbacks.
Week 15 Results
The Myles Gaskin play was egregious. No excuses, I made a really bad mistake. I knew that the Dolphins had soured on Gaskin based on the signing of Phil Lindsay and Duke Johnson. I also knew Gaskin barely practiced all week due to COVID. It’s just too much risk to take on, even on a horrific RB slate. I also am frustrated I didn’t just stick with Jeff Wilson, who was in an excellent setup even if I thought he wouldn’t catch any passes and share some with Deebo Samuel. This loss is on me.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 124.86 points, won 70.5% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 92.88 points, won 5.7% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 151.52 points, won 63.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 104.92 points, won 8.1% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 187.08 points, won 82.7% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 147.98 points, won 82.3% of head-to-heads
Week 7: 163.38 points, won 88.1% of head-to-heads
Week 8: 135.62 points, won 37.0% of head-to-heads
Week 9: 127.54 points, won 81.4% of head-to-heads
Week 10: 152.74 points, won 90.0% of head-to-heads
Week 11: 109.02 points, won 55.3% of head-to-heads
Week 12: 117.32 points, won 80.1% of head-to-heads
Week 13: 180.08 points, won 86.9% of head-to-heads
Week 14: 127.30 points, won 51.4% of head-to-heads
Week 15: 119.58 points, won 36.8% of head-to-heads
