I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games. I make one cash lineup for DraftKings and one for FanDuel.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineups in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was an awesome slate because there were an incredible amount of strong plays. This was the first time all season I thought there were quality options at all price points, and at all positions.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Breece Hall (quad) was out once again. We have a big sample on Braelon Allen usage in this spot, and it’s truly elite. Now he got an up pace (per Thorman article) matchup against the Raiders at home with a 46.5 total. And Braelon was just $6100.
* The Dolphins are a significantly better matchup for RBs and TEs than WRs, as noted in our DvP data. Even with TreVeyon Henderson in, I thought Rhamondre Stevenson was an interesting play (although not a cash play). Once THendo was ruled out, I considered Rhamondre a must at just $5600. We don’t get three-down RBs in good offenses at this price very often.
* I’ve previously noted that anytime Puka Nacua and Matthew Stafford are both healthy, and Puka is below $9k, he’s blindly in play for cash. When Davante Adams is out, it becomes a must. We know Puka is going to get 10+ targets when he’s competing with dusty WRs and multi-TE sets for looks.
* It’s rare I would consider a Cam Ward possession receiver a must. But Wan’Dale Robinson has a very long history of earning targets at an extremely high level. And now Carnell Tate was out, and we could project a ton of Ward dropbacks as the Titans were 13-point dogs. Specifically on full-PPR DraftKings, this Wan’Dale was a high-floor kind of punt WR at $4200.
* There were a ton of RBs to play. And yes, I expected Samaje Perine to be annoying as usual. But Chase Brown was just $6300 for a team implied for nearly 30 points. Joe Burrow is an elite thrower to the RB position, and Brown is an excellent pass-catcher. I wasn’t going to overthink the projection here, we had Brown for 18.7 DK as our fifth-best salary-adjusted value at running back.
MY WANT PLAYS
* There were a lot of QB options on this slate. As we discussed on Friday’s Establish The Show, I would’ve been fine with Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, or Dak Prescott. I did slightly prefer Dak over Lawrence because I thought the Cowboys could fall behind against the consistently live-dog Cardinals. Whereas the tanking Colts were drawing very thin to generate offense.
* Zay Flowers has been a top-3 WR in the NFL this season, despite Tyler Huntley playing half the snaps for the Ravens. With Lamar Jackson (ankle) back to face the pass-funneling Bills, I was really excited to play this spot. We did have Ja’Marr Chase projected for one more point than Zay, but I did not see a clean way to get the $500.
* I didn’t want to play any tight ends on this slate other than Trey McBride and Brock Bowers. That’s what I tried to do in tournaments. But in cash, saving the $4000 for viable (although bad) options was fine. So I was deciding between Cade Otton and Mark Andrews as punts, both at $3400. Otton is a dad-runner and Andrews is cooked. I decided to go with Otton given his splits when Mike Evans was off the field… perhaps he could find same success with Emeka Egbuka (concussion, foot) out and Baker Mayfield playing without the glove.
* I would’ve loved to play Steelers or Jaguars at defense. But as usual, I was trying to spend as little as possible here. That left me with the Broncos D/ST, home against the Chiefs. Note that in head-to-heads people played my team except with Mark Andrews over Cade Otton, I late swapped to Dolphins D/ST to unblock myself.
Week 8 Results
Lamar Jackson (finger) left on the first play, and Tyler Huntley (toe) left soon after. So I took a zero from Zay Flowers at $7200, which is beyond brutal.
I knew it could rain in Tampa, but I did not think there would be a torrential downpour for the whole game. Baker Mayfield attempted three passes all day, completing zero. So I took a zero from Cade Otton.
That said, I feel really good about this team. I’d likely play it, or something close to it, if we could replay the slate again.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 159.94 points, won 82.2% of head-to-heads
Week 2 Draftkings: 154.76 points, won 81.1% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 163.30 points, won 73.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: 104.38 points, won 41.1% of head-to-heads
Week 5 DraftKings: 158.96 points, won 79.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 125.60 points, won 48.5% of head-to-heads
Week 7 DraftKings: 114.06 points, won 50.8% of head-to-heads
Week 8 DraftKings: 118.90 points, won 22.6% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: Did not play due to site functionality
Week 2 FanDuel: 125.86 points, won 66.7% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 140.36 points, won 82.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: 137.68 points, won 78.9% of head-to-heads
Week 5 FanDuel: 151.16 points, won 92.3% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 112.08 points, won 87.5% of head-to-heads
Week 7 FanDuel: 96.06 points, won 30.8% of head-to-heads
Week 8 FanDuel: 142.40 points, won 50.1% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties
