I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
I really liked this slate on DraftKings. There were a few of different ways to go at WR, TE, and D/ST. Picking the right ones would be the key.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Isiah Pacheco (leg) still wasn’t ready to return. That left Kareem Hunt again with the backfield to himself for one of the best possible matchups against the Panthers. Our DvP data had Carolina inflating RB scoring by 14.5% over expectation, 2nd-most in the league. The touchdown expectation for Hunt relative to his meager $5700 salary was massive.
* De’Von Achane is the ideal DraftKings play. He’s a featured member of the pass game, has shown a goal-line role, and can break the slate on low volume if needed. Achane certainly wasn’t “cheap” at $7500, but once Brock Purdy (shoulder) was ruled out then Achane became my favorite high-end RB for cash. The Patriots came into the slate 21st in yards per play allowed.
MY WANT PLAYS
* It was a weak quarterback slate. I certainly didn’t love Anthony Richardson’s matchup against the best team in the NFL, but I knew the floor was solid. Richardson’s return to the saddle in Week 11 yielded an absurd amount of RPOs and designed runs, and this game was in the dome in a spot the Colts would have to be aggressive offensively. Despite all of A-Rich’s struggles this season, he still came into the week 6th in fantasy points per QB dropbacks. So at just $5600, a floor of 10 DK points in a spot A-Rich could hit a ceiling was fine by me.
* I only thought four RBs were in play in for cash: Kareem Hunt, De’Von Achane, Brian Robinson, and James Conner. I did prefer Conner to B-Rob, but he was $900 more. And given the setup for the Commanders – at home against Cooper Rush and a decimated Cowboys team which has been a massive run funnel all year. I didn’t think it was worth making sacrifices elsewhere to get from Robinson to Conner, who has been leaking a little work to Trey Benson/Emari Demercado.
* Regular readers know I rarely, if ever, want to pay $5800 for tight end. Especially when it’s a 35-year-old one who likely wouldn’t be needed to beat Carolina. So I was happy to get down off Kelce in favor of getting more firepower at wide receiver.
The choices were Nico Collins ($7600), Tyreek Hill ($7200), or CeeDee Lamb ($7300). We had them all projected very close, but Nico was the one I wanted. If he didn’t get that long touchdown called back in Week 11, people would’ve been more excited about him. He didn’t have the systemic risk of Lamb’s Cowboys, and didn’t have the health/decline concerns of Tyreek. With Stef Diggs out and another week removed from the hamstring pull, I considered Nico the best raw WR on the slate.
But in order to get that extra money, I needed to come off Bucs D/ST. I wouldn’t have done that if there weren’t two other truly elite options. Dolphins at home against Drake Maye and the inept Patriots OL, and Broncos against Gardner Minshew. I decided I was fine with any of those three defenses, and would play whichever one fit.
* Courtland Sutton was facing a poor Raiders defense, missing secondary pieces, in the perfect conditions at Vegas. I thought Sutton was among the most solid plays on the slate given how the Broncos have schemed the ball to him over the last month, and how well Bo Nix is playing. Sutton and Jakobi Meyers (see below) were two of just three WRs in our DraftKings projections showing a positive salary-based value.
* The last 2v2 I looked at was Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry vs. DK Metcalf and Luke Schoonmaker. I thought the latter side clearly had more upside, especially considering the difficult matchup for Jakobi.
But in the end, Schoonmaker’s poor underlying usage scared me off in cash. Although his targets per route run and production has been elite, it’s come while running on less than half the routes when Ferguson has been out. The Jakobi/Henry side was certainly boring, but it did project 2.46 points better for us. I’m always willing to IKB (I Know Better) the projections in tournaments, and willing to IKB it in cash if it’s within a point. But 2.46 points clear is a long and shaky bridge to walk on.
Week 12 Results
When Luke Schoonmaker outscored Hunter Henry, I was kicking myself on that last 2v2. How could I possibly pass on a very viable stone minimum priced tight end?? But then Jakobi Meyers went off, making me a winner on that decision.
The other big spot was Nico Collins outscoring Tyreek Hill… and that one could’ve been even better if Nico’s second touchdown wasn’t taken back by a lazy illegal shift penalty. Anthony Richardson actually ran pretty bad – he had a touchdown pass dropped and a few long completions called back by penalty. But I can’t complain too much, good to book another solid win on DK.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 147.38 points, won 98.6% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 116.94 points, won 21.1% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 109.3 points, won 54.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: 146.28 points, won 75.3% of head-to-heads
Week 5 DraftKings: 143.06 points, won 83.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 134.12 points, won 50.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7 DraftKings: 93.14 points, won 28.2% of head-to-heads
Week 8 DraftKings: 173.16 points, won 96.3% of head-to-heads
Week 9 DraftKings: 170.86 points, won 65.2% of head-to-heads
Week 10 DraftKings: 117.92 points, won 66.1% of head-to-heads
Week 11 DraftKings: 133.00 points, won 81.5% of head-to-heads
Week 12 DraftKings: 145.08 points, won 77.8% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 2 FanDuel: 143.24 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 111.88 points, won 71.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: 120.92 points, won 41.9% of head-to-heads
Week 5 FanDuel: 130.22 points, won 71.4% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 133.36 points, won 80.6% of head-to-heads
Week 7 FanDuel: 100.04 points, won 65.0% of head-to-heads
Week 8 FanDuel: 122.36 points, won 70.4% of head-to-heads
Week 9 FanDuel: 132.1 points, won 52.0% of head-to-heads
Week 10 FanDuel: 108.82 ponts, won 60.9% of head-to-heads
Week 11 FanDuel: 112.58 points, won 29.0% of head-to-heads
Week 12 FanDuel: 120.56 points, won 47.8% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
