I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
I came into the week with an open mind on which site to play cash on this week. On Friday, I thought that the setup on DraftKings was better than FanDuel for me. By Saturday night, I regretted that decision immensely. With Derek Carr getting ruled in and Taysom Hill getting in, we had some very tough decisions at RB. There were also some incredibly tight 2v2s and 1v1s.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Christian McCaffrey has the NFL’s best RB role and had an elite spot at home against the Seahawks. I would not have scoffed at paying $10,000 for him in this spot on DraftKings. At just $9200, he was an absolute lock. Note that on FanDuel CMC was extremely difficult to fit at a whopping $10,5000.
* Yes, Zack Moss faceplanted in Week 13 from a results perspective. But his underlying usage was truly elite. Now Moss was just $5900 for a clean matchup. Obviously I don’t think Moss is as good as he was playing early in the season, but he was an easy click at this price against a Bengals defense ranked dead last in yards per play allowed.
MY WANT PLAYS
* Rashee Rice ($5400) was certainly underpriced given the ability he’s shown to earn targets from arguably the greatest QB ever. But he wasn’t a “must” because we know he only rounds a route on 70% of the dropbacks, and because we know the WR target shares in KC are not sticky week-to-week. That said, I did prefer Rice to both Garrett Wilson (rain, Zach Wilson) and Drake London (volume concerns).
* At quarterback I only considered Jake Browning, Brock Purdy, and Justin Fields. I liked both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, but they were simply too expensive for the context of the slate.
I played around with lineups including all three QBs. I didn’t think that decision was overly important. In the end, the 2v2 I looked at was Justin Fields and Brevin Jordan vs. Brock Purdy and Isaiah Likely. I thought there was merit to (hopefully) getting all of the 49ers’ touchdowns through Purdy and CMC. I also thought Likely was the best TE play given he’s in the Mark Andrews role, has proven he can win at the NFL level, and was just $3500.
* Another 2v2 I looked at closely was Alvin Kamara and Drake London vs. Keenan Allen and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. We had the Kamara side slightly ahead in projection. I decided to go with with the CEH/Keenan side mostly because I preferred the other RB options to the other WR options.
In other words, I thought CEH at $4200 with a 10-14 touch projections playing with Patrick Mahomes was better than London or Jaxon Smith-Ngiba or Jonathan Mingo or any other cheap WR play. I also felt really good about Keenan Allen’s volume with Josh Palmer still on the sideline, Mike Williams of course out for year, Quentin Johnston being incapable, and the defense struggling so badly.
* Another 2v2 I looked at was Jaxon Smith-Ngiba and Brevin Jordan vs. Zay Jones and Isaiah Likely. I think I would have played the JSN side if Geno Smith was healthy. But with Drew Lock likely to start, I decided to ride with Zay. With Christian Kirk out, I expected Jones to run a route on at least 90% of the dropbacks. Plus Trevor Lawrence (ankle) seemed reasonably healthy, and CB Denzel Ward was out for the Browns.
* The Browns D/ST was going to be a stone-cold lock if CJ Beathard started. But even with Trevor Lawrence starting, I thought Browns D/ST was the best play at $3000 or below. The Jaguars were down to their 3rd-string left tackle, Lawrence couldn’t walk just five days ago, Christian Kirk was out, and the Browns have one of the best defenses in the entire league.
Week 14 Main Slate Results
The 2v2 that made all the difference was going Keenan Allen + Clyde Edwards-Helaire over Alvin Kamara + Drake London. Keenan was shockingly ineffective even before Justin Herbert (finger) left, but CEH’s role was what I expected. The problem was London going off for 32.2 points. In hindsight, I was likely too afraid of Arthur Smith and limited Desmond Ridder dropbacks given that London was just $4600 in a really good spot. Just can’t afford to get those wrong.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 132.7 points, won 51.5% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 126.34 points, won 63.6% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 166.98 points, won 59.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 169.12 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 107.62 points, won 5.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 140.22 points, won 49.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7: 124.98 points, won 51.2% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 8: 79.58 points, won 10.3% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 9: 113.88 points, won 56.3% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 10: 92.76 points (original team), won 8.2% of head-to-heads. 131.16 points (late swap), won 100% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 11: 107.96 points, won 31.0% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 12 Thanksgiving: 134.54 points, won 82.8% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 12 Main: 147.90 points, won 79.6% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 13: 169.36 points, won 95.8% of head-to-heads
Week 14: 134.32 points, won 40.4% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
