I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a tough slate as value evaporated quickly. I thought we would get cheap Patriots RB, but then Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) played. I thought we would get Elijah Moore, but then Mike White (ribs) gave way to Zach Wilson. I thought we would get a strong Patriots WR punt, but then Jakobi Meyers (concussion) got cleared. It left us with another tightish week.
MY MUST PLAYS
* After the Saints played Mark Ingram for a massive role in Week 14, I was ready to call it a season on playing Alvin Kamara in cash. But then Ingram (knee) went down, and then Dwayne Washington (illness) got scratched along with new arrival Eno Benjamin. It left only Kamara, the corpse of David Johnson, and gadgety Taysom Hill as options in a dream home matchup against the Falcons. I thought Kamara could reach 90% of the snaps here at just $6800, a massive number for someone with his pass-game and goal-line ability.
* Chris Moore wasn’t a “must” in a vacuum. But given the slate, he was the clear-cut puntish WR on a slate we needed to save at the position. Given Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins were out again, we had Moore for 7.4 targets against a beatable Chiefs secondary. That’s more than enough at $4200.
MY WANT PLAYS
* It’s D/ST, so Broncos D was not a “must.” But this is a very good defense at home facing Colt McCoy, and they were the 7th-cheapest D/ST on the slate. That’s because the Kyler Murray injury occurred after pricing was released.
* There were a lot of very strong expensive plays on this slate. I thought the best ones were Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Ja’Marr Chase. Normally in cash, I lean RB in this spot. However, there were holes to poke in both Henry and Jacobs. Henry was a road dog with offensive line concerns, a spot I don’t like to play him. And Jacobs had a middling matchup plus I was a little worried about his pass-game role thanks to the finger issue. Meanwhile, Ja’Marr Chase’s volume has been among the best in the league since he returned from injury in Week 13. And I thought this game in Tampa could turn into a shootout.
* I’m not sure people are fully aware of James Conner’s current role. Over the previous two weeks, he played on 134-of-140 snaps. That kind of usage, one that comes with solid pass-game work as well, simply rarely exists in today’s NFL anymore. So at $6900, I felt good about Conner even in a tough spot at Denver. The reason Conner wasn’t a full-blown must was because he was “only” $1100 less than Derrick Henry and $1200 less than Josh Jacobs.
* I thought the best teams punted one WR spot. However, once Jakobi Meyers was ruled in it was tough to figure out which one. I considered Nelson Agholor, Rasheed Shaheed, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Elijah Moore. Given how balky Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) appeared to be, how little Jakobi (concussion) practiced, and the Raiders pass defense, I expected a pass-centric gameplan from the Patriots. I also didn’t think Meyers presence affected Agholor too much, as he doesn’t play a ton in the slot.
* I thought there were three QBs in play for cash: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert. Certainly I preferred Mahomes or Hurts, but I didn’t think it was a priority given the spot for Herbert. They have leaned extremely pass-heavy lately, the Titans (thanks in part to injuries) have one of the NFL’s biggest pass funnels, and Herbert had all his weapons healthy. So in this team I did not have the money to get up to the elite QBs, and I was fine with that.
* The last 2v2 I looked at was CeeDee Lamb and Chig Okonkwo vs Keenan Allen and Greg Dulcich. I thought it was incredibly close. I actually started with Keenan and Chig for a few reasons.
First, Keenan gave me a stack with Justin Herbert which is better when playing a lot of head-to-heads. Second, Keenan played in the late window while Lamb was early. I wanted maximum swap options just in case Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) ended up late scratched. And finally, I could always go to Dulcich in case I got behind early – I thought he would be significantly less owned than Chig, but with a similar projection.
If I had started off well, I would have been OK leaving the $600 on the table and blocking all the Chig ownership. But since I started off poorly (didn’t have Zay Jones or Jalen Hurts, Kamara was meh), I went for the Dulcich leverage.
Week 15 Results
I played terribly this week and I deserve to eat my worst week of the season. Justin Herbert over Patrick Mahomes for just $900 less feels bad in hindsight. I should not have been so down on Zach Wilson and just played Elijah Moore over Nelson Agholor – in cash the way Elijah wins is far better. WR Ja’Marr Chase over RB Derrick Henry wasn’t great.
After Jalen Hurts (22% in the $25 SE Double Up), Patrick Mahomes (13%) and Zay Jones (29%) all went off in the early games, perhaps I should have gone for a bigger swap. I only swapped Chig Okwonu to Greg Dulcich. But note that Zonovan Knight (26%), Isiah Pacheco (25%), Miles Sanders (23%), and other high-owned players busted. And Chris Moore/Alvin Kamara were very owned. I think swapping to Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs over Ja’Marr Chase may have been right, but I’m OK not going with a full-blown swap here.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 172.02 points, won 80.7% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 127.28 points, won 65.8% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 139.86 points, won 96.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 171.52 points, won 89.5% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 184.36 points, won 62.1% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 135.86 points, won 51.6% of head-to-heads
Week 7: 165.40 points, won 77.8% of head-to-heads
Week 8: 194.24 points, won 87.1% of head-to-heads
Week 9: 161.62 points, won 73.9% of head-to-heads (does not include ties)
Week 10: 160.18 points, won 81.7% of head-to-heads
Week 11: 96.68 points, won 52.2% of head-to-heads
Week 12: 145.12 points, won 59.9% of head-to-heads
Week 13: 150.04 points, won 52.1% of head-to-heads
Week 14: 130.60 points, won 57.5% of head-to-heads
Week 15: 101.42 points, won 8.1% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
