I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games. I make just one cash lineup for DraftKings and one for FanDuel.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineups in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a very loosely priced slate. That’s because we had a fistful of RB injuries, and also no Christian McCaffrey or Puka Nacua. I knew we’d have to prioritize raw points over value.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Jaxon Smith-Njigba came into Week 5 sporting an absurd 34% target share and 76% catch rate on a strong 12.8-yard aDOT. It’s an outrageous role and talent profile for someone priced at just $7100 in full-PPR. On top of that, he was facing a pass-funneling Bucs defense which was without top CB Jamel Dean. JSN was easily our best WR value on the slate.
* We had the Panthers inflating RB fantasy scoring by a league-high 8.4%. I also love playing De’Von Achane in cash because he has the absurd pass-catching role to go with game-breaking big-run ability and a workhorse role. Given the matchup and then layering in Tyreek Hill’s absence, Achane was a must for me – even on a very strong RB slate.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I only considered Justin Fields and Justin Herbert at DK quarterback. On FanDuel, Kyler Murray was cheaper than Fields and in play as well. In the end, I liked Fields best given the matchup (our DvP model has the Cowboys inflating QB scoring by a league-high 6.1%) and his truly special rushing ability.
* I thought there were five clear-cut elite RBs on this slate: Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, Rachaad White, Rico Dowdle. I was always playing Achane (see above). So I needed two of the other four. Givem how loose this slate was priced, I wanted to pay up for Jonathan Taylor on both sites. He had no competition for the passing-down role with Tyler Goodson out, and was a threat to play 100% of the snaps against the Raiders.
For the RB3 spot, I wanted to get Breece Hall given the elite matchup and the Braelon Allen injury. But I didn’t think it was worth punting TE or WR3 to get Breece in, and I was fine with Rico Dowdle. The Dolphins are one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and we didn’t expect the Panthers to trust Trevor Etienne.
* The Saints D/ST was a home favorite against a rookie QB operating without his WR1. I wasn’t going to overthink this when they were just $2200. The Saints were easily our best value at the position.
* We had a ton of money to spend on this slate. So while I thought both Mason Taylor ($2800) and Tommy Tremble ($2900) were in play as punts, it simply wasn’t necessary here. So I looked only really looked at teams with both Tyler Warren and Trey McBride. I did think McBride would outscore Warren, but the $1100 price gap was too wide. Shout out Penn State.
* As usual, it was a very weak WR slate. I only thought four were in play for cash: JSN (see above), Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle, and Jakobi Meyers. With Brock Bowers out and a plus matchup against the Colts, Meyers became a priority. I would have played Waddle over Olave on DK (as I did on FD) with Tyreek Hill out, but it didn’t fit.
Week 5 Results
The white hot start to the season continues. Definitely got lucky that Justin Fields ran up so many points in garbage time, and obviously Rico Dowdle’s result was 99th percentile. But I was happy with the way we read the murky ARZ, TB, and CAR RB situations this week and were able to emerge with Rico ahead on Top Plays. Can’t say enough about our projections team, as our projected optimals continue to score around GPP-contention levels.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 111.32 points, won 37.0% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 145.40 points, won 76.5% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 168.68 points, won 70.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: Did not play
Week 5 Draftkings: 192.22 points, won 87.5% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: 114.22 points, won 92.3% of head-to-heads
Week 2 FanDuel: 119.00 points, won 95.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 149.42 points, won 82.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 5 FanDuel: 177.7 points, won 89.4% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
