I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games. I make one cash lineup for DraftKings and one for FanDuel.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineups in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a really straightforward week for cash. Because some pieces of the DET-ARZ game were so underpriced, it made for relatively few tough decisions.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Jahmyr Gibbs was $9800 on DraftKings and $10000 on FanDuel. Yes, that’s expensive. And still, Gibbs was still our best salary-adjusted value in projections (on both sites) by a big margin.
* There were not a lot of great game environments for quarterbacks on this slate. So the ability to save money with Jacoby Brissett ($5500) was an absolute lock. Brissett came into the game averaging 40.1 dropbacks per game, and was now home against the Lions. Brissett was $1100 less than the only other QB I would’ve considered, Jared Goff.
* The Bears have one of the best run schemes and run-blocking OLs in the entire league. Kyle Monangai (toe) was out, leaving only Roschon Johnson behind D’Andre Swift. With Swift at just $6200, this was another easy one.
* I did not want to put American dollars on Chargers offensive players. But both Ladd McConkey (foot) and Quentin Johnston (chest) were out. And so were the top-2 Broncos CBs in Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss. There simply weren’t many other places for the ball to go other than Tre Harris, and he was just $4100.
* I rarely would call a $6700 tight end a “must.” But there were no cheap options I felt comfortable with on this slate, and Trey McBride’s matchup plus game environment was elite. It was not hard to fit expensive tight end given all the value we had to choose from.
* I was playing Michael Wilson at $6200 against the Lions before the Marvin Harrison trade. In fact, I thought the Harrison trade wasn’t ideal for Wilson because Kendrick Bourne was more likely to earn targets than Harrison. But this was a very cheap tag given the absurd Wilson usage and the game environment. Wilson came into this game averaging 10.7 targets/game over his last 13.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I thought the biggest decision on the slate was the 1v1 at RB3: Braelon Allen vs. Emanuel Wilson. We had them with literally the same projection. I went back and forth on this for a while. In the end, there were a few factors that made me go Wilson:
First, team-level floor. The Seahawks are going to be competent, run a solid amount of plays, be in scoring position. I could not say that about the Jets, even at home against the Browns.
Second, I wasn’t sure if George Holani (knee, groin) was going to be active. We had Wilson and Braelon with the same projection with Holani in.
Third, I thought there was some chance Isaiah Davis would play a bit more here. The Jets only got 32 plays off in Week 4, and came out of that game saying they intended to get Davis more work.
And lastly, least importantly, Wilson played in the late window. That gave me swap options that Allen didn’t. But to be honest, I rarely swap in head-to-head anyway.
* The last 2v2 I looked at was Kendrick Bourne and Jets D/ST vs. Roman Wilson and Titans D/ST. Note that Bourne was not in play until the Marvin Harrison trade.
I thought it was close, mainly because I did buy that Aaron Rodgers likes Roman Wilson. And that is tough to quantify in projection. But Bourne also has a ton of rapport with Jacoby Brissett. They played together in New England, and Bourne had an 8-catch game in Week 1. Also by playing Michael Wilson and Bourne together I raised the floor of the team. And Jets D/ST in the rain against Deshaun Watson was clearly an upgrade over Titans.
Week 5 Results
Whenever I have 5+ “must plays” in a week, I know it’s going to be a good one. That’s because I know a ton of people who play me won’t consider them “musts.” As for the 1v1 results, Braelon Allen was at about 12 points with three minutes left in the game. The Browns are punting to pin the Jets deep, and force a throw-heavy drive. Instead, the ball goes through the punters hands, Braelon gets a TD and the 100-bonus right after. Perhaps Braelon was the right side, but I’m not going to sweat that 1v1.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 159.94 points, won 82.2% of head-to-heads
Week 2 Draftkings: 154.76 points, won 81.1% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 163.30 points, won 73.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: 104.38 points, won 41.1% of head-to-heads
Week 5 DraftKings: 158.96 points, won 79.5% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: Did not play due to site functionality
Week 2 FanDuel: 125.86 points, won 66.7% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 140.36 points, won 82.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: 137.68 points, won 78.9% of head-to-heads
Week 5 FanDuel: 151.16 points, won 92.3% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
