Dynasty Outlook
April 3
Malik Nabers is our WR2 for rookie drafts and checks in as WR9 in our overall dynasty ranks. He is an elite WR prospect with comps that match some of the best players in the league. He doesn’t have the same floor we see from Marvin Harrison Jr., which lands him slightly behind, but he is still an elite dynasty asset worthy of a high selection. Nabers is most commonly mocked to the Giants, but any team who drafts him will likely make Nabers the top target in the offense. He should return production immediately.
Profile Summary
Nabers is one of the better recent WR prospects we have seen, and would be the slam-dunk WR1 in most other classes. The scouts compare him to some of the best players in the NFL, and the statistics back that up. Nabers will absolutely be selected inside of the top 10, and should be the top target for whichever team drafts him.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 20.4
Experience — 3 years
Height — 72.25 inches
Weight — 199 pounds
Forty — 4.35 seconds
Vertical — 42 inches
Broad — 129 inches
By the Numbers
Nabers impacted LSU right away as a true freshman, earning a 15% dominator rating despite being surrounded by NFL talent: Kayshon Boutte, Trey Palmer, and Brian Thomas. The Tigers were not a big passing team in 2021, but in 2022 Jayden Daniels transferred in and Brian Kelly became the head coach. Pass volume increased tremendously, and Nabers became the offense’s top target, eclipsing 1,000 total yards. That was good for 27% of his team’s yards, but his lack of TDs (three) prevented a breakout.
It all came together in 2023. Even with another first-rounder at WR on the roster, Nabers had a monster season as part of Daniels’ Heisman-winning campaign. He averaged 17.6 yards per reception on his 89 catches, and scored 14 times. The list of Power 5 WRs to average over 17.0 YPR with 80+ catches is short, though it does include some other players in this class:
Rome Odunze
Troy Franklin
Ja’Marr Chase
Tylan Wallace
Dede Westbrook
Terrance Williams
Deandre Hopkins
Alshon Jeffery
Dez Bryant
Mike Hass
Larry Fitzgerald
Geoff McArthur
Mark Clayton
Josh Reed
The first-round picks on this list are quite impressive: Chase, Hopkins, Jeffery, Bryant, Fitzgerald, and Clayton. Everyone but Clayton has had multiple WR1 seasons.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein comped Nabers to Justin Jefferson:
Nabers is the next big thing coming out of LSU’s receiver room, with the pure explosiveness and talent to be mentioned in the same breath as former LSU stars now starring in the league today. Despite a lack of polish and precision as a route runner, Nabers’ gliding movements and speed alterations seem to disguise the top-end speed and separation potential that await opposing coverages. He’s a bouncy leaper with the athletic ability to make the impossible catches possible. He tucks away accurate throws and displays the toughness and play strength to fight for tight-window victories over the middle. Nabers will need to address his tendency to track and play deep throws with finesse, or his early advantages will turn into 50/50 battles. He can play all three receiver spots and has the profile to become a productive, high-volume target over all three levels as a potential WR1.
Daniel Jeremiah is reminded of D.J. Moore:
Nabers is a dynamic receiver with outstanding competitiveness and production. He explodes off the line in his release, creating immediate separation. He sets up defenders before snapping off his route. He isn’t afraid to work in the middle of the field and has strong hands to finish through contact. When working back to the quarterback, he prefers to let the ball travel into his body, but his drops are limited. He can scoop low throws off his shoes and easily adjusts to balls on his back hip. He does a lot of damage on slot fades, where he uses his speed to win early, and he tracks the ball with ease. After the catch, he explodes through tackles and also has a nasty stiff arm. Overall, Nabers is an electric playmaker who reminds me of D.J. Moore with the ball in his hands.
Dane Brugler believes it is close between Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr.:
An explosive playmaker (FBS-best 34 catches of 20+ yards in 2023), Nabers uses his gliding speed to consistently win on slot fades or one-on-one vertical routes, and his favorite play in the playbook is the jet sweep. His seven-on-seven highlights from high school are legendary.
He also can win underneath as a snatch-and-run target and will continue to ascend as he develops his finishing skills and route discipline. There isn’t a wide gap between Harrison and Nabers for the WR1 spot.
Draft Projection
Nabers has an expected draft position of 6.2 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Nabers fifth overall. Jeremiah had Nabers sixth in his most recent mock, and Brugler’s had him sixth as well. Nabers is certainly going to be a top-10 pick in this year’s draft.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
The high-end comps for Nabers are excellent. Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb are two of the most valuable WRs in dynasty right now, and Greg Jennings had a brilliant career. The ceiling is clearly there for Nabers.
DeVante Parker and Jerry Jeudy had intermittent success, but nothing sustained at the NFL level. Corey Coleman was a total bust, as were the non-first-round players. It may be a bit of a red flag that we see three such players in Nabers’ comp set.
