NBA Matchups: November 17

Milwaukee Bucks (front end) at Charlotte Hornets (front end)

Team Totals: Bucks 121.8, Hornets 114.3

Injury Report: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Q, calf), Gordon Hayward (Q, hamstring), Brandon Miller (Q, ankle), Miles Bridges (available), MarJon Beauchamp (Q, ankle)

Bucks projected starters: Damian Lillard, Malik Beasley, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez

Hornets projected starters: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington, Mark Williams

Griffin quotes: Said Dame took control of the game and he’s so hard to guard because of his range, said Brook’s rim protection was huge in the TOR game, said Dame reads the game so well and he makes the right play all the time, said Beasley is working hard on the defensive end and he’s able to knock down the good looks he’s getting within the offense, said he’s his own toughest critic for the mistakes he’s made as a coach, said they will come up with a plan on if they rest Middleton on Friday or Saturday.

Clifford quotes: Said he’ll have a significant role for Miles Bridges, said they were too disorganized in their loss on Tuesday, said Bridges “will be a big part of things for sure” but didn’t say if he was going to start, said Bridges did everything he could to make sure he can make an impact right away.

Stats and Notes: 

*My god. The Q tags. From a macro standpoint, the biggest thing is how awful the Hornets are on defense, ranking dead last in the NBA. Their starting lineup has the second-worst D rating in the league (Bulls, duh), and that lineup is also seventh in the NBA for pace. It’s just a fantasy goldmine with terrible on-ball D and horrific transition defense, and teams are smoking them on jumpers. Their rim defense has gotten a bit better, and actually, they’re better on the offensive glass recently. It still sets up extremely well for the Milwaukee offense as they have started to get on track, moving up to eighth in the league after a great offensive game on Wednesday (even without Giannis… Dame is too good).

*Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Q tag is the whole story here, and there’s not too much to say besides that. It’s a back-to-back set and it looks like they are choosing to play Khris Middleton here, so it makes sense to sit him. If he goes, he could explode against weaker 1-on-1 defenders.

*Damian Lillard did have his breakout game against the Raptors en route to a 37/4/13 line. Dame undressed the Raptors’ defense with his downhill game, scoring 17 points on his 17 drives in just 30.7 minutes. Obviously no Giannis was a big reason why he was able to dominate in such limited playing time, and he would need Giannis to sit to realize his ceiling.

*Khris Middleton is still hitting his minutes cap. While it was a blowout on Wednesday, it looked quite clear that Dame was subbing in for Middleton to keep him at 21. The matchup is so good, but he may not get enough playing time.

*Malik Beasley caught fire against the Raptors with 30 points on 11-of-14 shooting from the field and no FTAs (eight treys), and the matchup sets up quite nicely for him here. He would probably need Giannis to sit to have a huge ceiling.

*Brook Lopez could also be in a great spot. Centers have crushed against the Hornets, and no Giannis would set him up to overlap with Portis a ton. On Wednesday, they overlapped for 18.2 minutes, so there’s just a huge minutes ceiling on him. The same goes for Portis, and the Hornets will likely leave him open a ton.

*The Bucks are still pretty iffy in the on-ball department, and they’ve seen plenty of lead guards put up big lines on them. LaMelo Ball should be very busy and his role has been insane since Clifford lifted his minutes limit. In the last five, LaMelo leads the league by far in touch time (9.0 minutes; Maxey second at 7.8), he leads the NBA in drives, and he’s at 18.6 potential assists (only Haliburton has more among guys to play at least 4/5 of team’s last five). The Bucks also play super fast in the first unit, so the possessions will certainly be there. There’s a huge upside here, and he’s the only guy on the team who may not have to worry about how Miles Bridges fits in.

*OK, so the small forwards all have questions. Brandon Miller and Gordon Hayward practiced, so it sounds like they’re going to play. If Clifford is indeed going to play Bridges big minutes, that could mean he runs it tight to boot JT Thor, some Theo Maledon, and maybe even Nick Richards gets cut down. It’s a tough area to target any of these guys.

*Mark Williams isn’t in a great spot here. On top of a bad matchup, he’s at risk of losing minutes to small-ball lineups. Maybe it’s the other guys who are affected, but the juice probably isn’t worth the squeeze in this spot. You can say the same for P.J. Washington, who undoubtedly can’t have a big minutes ceiling unless he’s cooking so much that Cliff can’t take him out.

Great matchups: Giannis Antetokounmpo (if he goes), Damian Lillard (if Giannis sits)

Good matchups: LaMelo Ball, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis

Bad matchups: Mark Williams

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New York Knicks (front end) at Washington Wizards

Team Totals: Knicks 117, Wizards 110.5

Injury Report: Quentin Grimes (Q, wrist), R.J. Barrett (Q, migraine)

Knicks projected starters: Jalen Brunson, R.J. Barrett, Josh Hart, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson (Note: Would think it’s IQ if Barrett can’t go)

Wizards projected starters: Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Deni Avdija, Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Gafford

Thibodeau quotes: Said Grimes has a bruised hand and didn’t get the results yet, said he doesn’t expect R.J. to miss extended time.

Unseld quotes: Said he was going to give Coulibaly his chance on Luka.

Stats and Notes: 

*Congrats to the Knicks for their best offensive performance today! Kidding aside, the Wizards continue to just get pummeled on the defensive end. Not only are they 29th in defense and 27th in halfcourt D per possession, but they’re giving up the highest offensive rebound percentage in the league while also allowing the lowest halfcourt frequency in the league. Basically, teams get to play the crappiest defense (Hornets are last for now), but they get more chances to do so with the Wizards ranking first in overall pace. The NYK offense is in its best groove all year with 59+ percentile efficiency on offense for five straight games, ranking second in offense over that span. They’re still playing solid defense at sixth overall with fantastic rim defense and being the best team in the NBA at limiting offensive rebounding. They’ve also been able to keep teams from running on them. It’s all going well in Manhattan.

*Jalen Brunson has been running into a lot of tough defenders to start the year, but he gets the most cupcake matchup out there. Brunson just can’t dig himself out of the driving inefficiencies he has himself in as the league’s worst driver from an efficiency standpoint (top 60 drivers per game). Brunson’s role has still held up overall, but the dime output has dropped as a function of the NYK offense falling off a bit when Brunson is on the floor.

*Like Brunson, Julius Randle would also greatly benefit from R.J. Barrett missing this game. Randle gets about as easy of a matchup as he could ask for against this team. His FG% on layups keeps ticking up, and he had his best at-rim game of the year against the Hawks. He’s a pretty good play today, but the projections will know that.

*Centers against Daniel Gafford are a print fest, and the Wizards being so bad around the basket bodes very well for Mitchell Robinson. It’s pretty straightforward here.

*Quentin Grimes has a sprained wrist, so you’d think he has to miss some time. Hopefully R.J. Barrett can make it back after his migraine issue has kept him out since Sunday. If one of them misses, it should be a huge opportunity for Josh Hart, whose style of play fits great with the pace and mistakes the Wizards have in their games. If they’re both out, Immanuel Quickley would be in a huge spot, as well. Plus, a thinned-out second unit could mean Thibs leans on his starters.

*The Knicks possibly losing Quentin Grimes sets up great for Jordan Poole. His usage is starting to tick back up, and he ran bad on Wednesday with foul trouble cutting him down. Poole can’t finish around the rim, but that doesn’t matter against a stout N.Y. interior defense. It’s an interesting spot for him, but he could completely airball.

*Kyle Kuzma has the best matchup for the Wizards. He lit them up last year with 40-, 27-, and 23-point games, and his perimeter shooting should thrive against a team that gives up a lot from the outside. He’s also playing a lot and is seeing a huge usage spike.

*No thanks on Daniel Gafford. The Knicks rebound the ball too well, and they protect the rim. It’s arguably the worst spot possible for Gafford.

Great matchups: The Knicks

Good matchups: Kyle Kuzma

Bad matchups: Daniel Gafford

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Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks