NBA Matchups: October 26

MIN @ CLE | WAS @ CHA | DAL @ MIA | CHI @ BOS | IND @ MIL | PHX @ OKC | ATL @ HOU | MEM @ UTA | GSW @ DEN

We’re wrapping up the first week of the season today! This is the first NBA Matchups where there are teams on the back end of a B2B, and I wrote most of this article before yesterday’s games were over. That means the stats used in this article do not include yesterday’s action (that’ll be basically all year).

Minnesota Timberwolves (back end) at Cleveland Cavaliers

Team Totals: Wolves 114.5, Cavs 119

Injury Report: Timberwolves (not yet submitted), Khalifa Diop (O, knee), Nae’Qwan Tomlin (O, back)

Timberwolves projected starters: LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Jonathan Kuminga, Rudy Gobert

Cavaliers projected starters: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen

Finch quotes: Said the ball movement has been contagious, said they are much better at pursuing the basketball on the boards, said Ant is so much better at finding two on the ball, said they can be a high-assist team, said LaMelo is great at getting people involved, said TSJ was great in the second unit for them, said Lyles was aggressive and that’s what they want.

Atkinson quotes: Said turnovers and missed FTs were a problem, said “we’re not in elite condition right now,” said they really need to move the ball better, said it can’t just be Harden and Mitchell making plays, said they played well for 90% of the game.

Stats and Notes:

*The Wolves are playing just the way they want with a top-five offense (before Sunday), and they are destroying opponents on the glass. The Cavs have major issues on the boards and were embarrassed in the preseason (average in the regular season). The Cavs are also getting killed in transition early, too. Minnesota is also allowing the lowest halfcourt ORB% to lead the NBA in TRB%. The Cavs have been torched at the basket for a league-high rim frequency allowed. The Wolves are on a B2B, but they should be in position for a solid offensive night. On the other side, the Wolves have given up a ton to on-ball scorers as they take away off-ball stuff. With the way the Wolves are crushing on the boards, the Cavs will have to rely heavily on their guards to produce enough points. 

*Anthony Edwards has been firing away with a league-high 13.0 3PAs per game, which puts him at third at 30.0 PPG this season (Ty Jerome, Devin Booker). He’s been bombing on pull-up treys at a league-high 8.5 per game, and he’s scoring 14.0 PPG on pull-ups. It’s likely going to be Peyton Watson guarding him, and he’s been able to take it to Watson at times. He’s in a pretty favorable spot here, especially if LaMelo Ball’s minutes are held in check on a B2B. Lastly, the Cavs have been flying in pace with their guards to start the season (111.4 pace with James Harden, 110.1 Donovan Mitchell).

*The offense has been great for LaMelo Ball, who ranks third in the NBA for wide-open 3PAs per game. If this weren’t a B2B, this would be a near-ideal spot for LaMelo with the Cavs struggling so much in the open court. The Cavs just don’t have the depth to cover these guards, but I’d shy away from ‘Melo on a B2B.

*Jonathan Kuminga has been excellent as a main wing defender, and this time he’ll be getting Evan Mobley both ways a bunch. The Cavs being so bad on the boards makes him an option, but I still can’t get there. Jaden McDaniels is very likely to have James Harden on him, which makes him a very attractive option even in a B2B. Rudy Gobert is fine against a Cavs team that can’t rebound.

*Donovan Mitchell is off to a solid start this season with a 27/8/4 average on a 65.1 TS% in two games. On top of getting more handling than Harden, his shot profile has been excellent with half of his FGAs within eight feet, and he’s only attempted five mid-range shots. This matchup is not a good one, as it’ll almost certainly be Jaden McDaniels on him. It is a B2B for the Wolves and the Wolves won’t help off, so it’s fine to go to Mitch.

*James Harden has also been struggling a bit at just a 52.6 TS% to start his season. His matchup wasn’t great to start the year, and he should get a better one against the drop coverage of the Wolves. He is losing some handling to Mitchell, and he only has a 20.7% usage rate. I prefer Mitchell over Harden by a decent bit.

*Evan Mobley should be in a decent spot against Jonathan Kuminga. The Wolves won’t send help, but of course Mobley really needs to crush at the basket to put up a huge line. I’m not too interested in him here.

*Jarrett Allen isn’t really an option against Gobert, and I wouldn’t mess with Peyton Watson against a team that really limits off-ball scoring.

Great matchups: Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels

Good matchups: Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert

Bad matchups: Jarrett Allen

Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets