NFL Awards: Who Wins and Why (2023)

Whenever you’re betting in an NFL awards market, keep in mind that it does not matter who you think will win. What matters is who are awards voters are going to vote for and why. In this year’s Who Wins and Why awards market analysis, we are looking back at the winners from the past 10 years in search of any patterns we can apply to our betting process. Let’s jump right in.

MVP

MVP Takeaways

• Over the last 10 years, every NFL MVP has been a quarterback.
• Eight of those 10 quarterbacks played for the No. 1 seed in their conference.
• The other two played for the second seed.
• Each of those 10 MVPs finished within the top four in the league in touchdown passes.
• Nine of them were in the top three, while seven of them were in the top two.
• Aside from Cam Newton’s 2015 MVP run, the other nine were top three in QBR and rating.
• Each of those 10 quarterbacks finished within the top five in EPA.
• Eight of those 10 quarterbacks finished within the top three in EPA.
• Standard numbers like rushing yards, passing yards, completion percentage, or anything related to interceptions have been inconsistent factors among recent MVP winners.
• Half of those 10 quarterbacks had +3000 or longer MVP odds entering the season.
• The other five opened the year as favorites with +1000 odds or less.
• Peyton Manning (5), Aaron Rodgers (4), Tom Brady (3), and now Patrick Mahomes (2) have each won multiple MVPs.
• Those four quarterbacks have collectively won seven of the last 10 MVP awards.
• Brady is the only MVP winner since Rich Gannon (2002) that was not taken in the first round.
• Carson Wentz “probably” wins the 2017 MVP if he doesn’t miss the final three games of the regular season due to injury.
• Adrian Peterson (2012) is the last non-quarterback to win the NFL MVP.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Offensive Rookie of the Year Takeaways

• Over the last 10 years, three quarterbacks, four running backs, and three wide receivers have won the Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY).
• Seven of the last 10 players to win OROY were first-round picks, including each of the last five.
• Each of the last five OROY winners were taken within the top 10 picks in the NFL Draft.
• Justin Herbert, Ja’Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley, and Odell Beckham Jr. each had historically relevant rookie campaigns.
• Five of the last 10 OPOY winners were favorites with +900 odds or less.
• Four others were mid-range longshots between +1300 and +2500 odds.
• Alvin Kamara is the only true longshot of this group entering the year with +5000 odds.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Defensive Rookie of the Year Takeaways

• Over the last 10 years, three cornerbacks, one linebacker, two interior defensive linemen, three edge rushers, and the hybrid unicorn Micah Parsons have won the Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY).
• Six of those 10 DROY winners could be classified as pass rushers.
• Colts linebacker Darius Leonard (now Shaquille) is the only member of that group that wasn’t selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.
• Four of those DROY winners were selected within the first five picks, including three of the last four DROY winners.
• Just five of the last 10 DROY winners played for teams that finished the season with a winning record.
• Last year’s winner, Sauce Gardner, did not have a notable amount of splash plays (forced turnovers, sacks), which is rare for DROY winners.
• That could signal that advanced metrics are starting to play a bigger role in some secondary awards markets.
• In the last 10 years, there have only been two DROY winners that entered the season as true longshots.
• Five of the last 10 DROY winners had +900 odds or less.
• Seven of them had +1400 odds or less.
• Three of the last four DROY winners were first-round pass rushers with +700 odds or less.

Defensive Player of the Year

Defensive Player of the Year Takeaways

• Eight of the last 10 Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) winners were primarily pass rushers.
• Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt have collectively won five of the past 10 DPOY awards.
• Each of the last 10 DPOY winners were first-round picks.
• Each of the last 10 DPOY winners played for teams with winning records.
• Five of the last 10 DPOY winners played for teams that won at least 12 games.
• Four of the last 10 DPOY winners played for top-two scoring defenses, including three of the last four DPOY winners.
• The two non-pass rushers to win the DPOY in the last 10 years both played for top-two scoring defenses.

Comeback Player of the Year

Comeback Player of the Year Takeaways

• In the past 10 years, six quarterbacks, two wide receivers, one tight end, and one safety have won the Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY).
• The last five CPOY winners were all quarterbacks.
• Seven of the last 10 CPOY winners were coming off an injury.
• Safety Eric Berry beat cancer, Philip Rivers was coming off a down year, and Geno Smith spent nine years as either a backup or a struggling starter before his CPOY win.
• Nine of the last 10 CPOY winners played for teams with winning records.
• The lone exception, Alex Smith, played for a 7-9 Washington team that won the NFC East.
• Nine of the last 10 CPOY winners played for teams that made the playoffs.
• Smith and Ryan Tannehill were both signed as backups, playing for a new team the year they won CPOY.
• Garrison Hearst was the last running back to win CPOY, back in 2001.

Coach of the Year

Coach of the Year Takeaways

• Nine of the last 10 Coach of the Year (COY) winners won at least 11 games. Last year’s winner, Brian Daboll, is the lone exception among that group.
• Seven of the last 10 COY winners beat their preseason win total by at least 3.5 games.
• The three COY winners among this group that didn’t were the last three COY winners.
• Seven of the last 10 COY winners coached a team that had a losing record the previous season.
• Eight of the last 10 COY winners won at least four more games than their team did the previous season.
• Eight of the last 10 COY winners were first-time COY winners.
• Four of the last 10 COY winners were first-time head coaches.