Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 306-221, +$5,770 (through Conference Championship)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 446-294, +$11,558 (through February 2)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Isiah Pacheco rushing yards
Line: 52.5 yards
Mean Projection: 47.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: (-110)
Date: February 1, 9:24am ET
Notes: There is some fragility as to how the Chiefs use their RBs and this line is inflated after a Pacheco-heavy gameplan last week.
2. Kenny Gainwell rushing yards
Line: 22.5 yards
Mean Projection: 15.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: February 1, 9:41am ET
Notes: Gainwell has been heavily involved over the past two games, but Miles Sanders is still the primary early-down back for Philly.
3. JuJu Smith-Schuster rush + rec yards
Line: 32.5 yards
Mean Projection: 46.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: February 6, 5:19pm ET
Notes: JuJu appears locked and loaded for the Super Bowl and should be KC’s WR1.
4. Travis Kelce receptions
Line: 7.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 6.8 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-122)
Date: February 12, 5:46pm ET
Notes: It doesn’t feel great, but we have Kelce projected a fair bit above his seasonal target share and still falling short of this number.
