Week 13 Record: 10-15, -$727
YTD: 199-170, $803 (1.86% ROI)
The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. There’s more to learn from the losers than the winners, and this week there were more learning opportunities than we’d like, so that’s where we’ll focus.
Alvin Kamara Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts -127 (12, L)
Mean proj: 18.4
By Saturday night, we expected Taysom Hill would be out, freeing up a significant amount of rushing work and handing Kamara a healthy projection of 18.4 carries.
Hill didn’t dress, setting us up well on our 14.5 position, but the sudden near-split in the backfield took us for a loop.
Over the past four games, Kamara’s rushing share had been 52% (that’s with Hill in), and Jamaal Williams’ share was at 23%. There was nothing in their recent usage to suggest the gap would be so close this week, but this was ultimately a big miss.
Trevor Lawrence Under 215.5 Passing Yards -115 (257, L)
ETR NFL Player Props
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