Winning and transparency. Those are the main goals of the ETR props product, and in this space, we aim to peel back the curtain on our process and shed some light on what goes into both our player projections and how we actually select picks. Our hope is that sharing this with you will help you better understand how to attack these markets yourself.
Let’s jump into Week 2.
Week 2 officials: 14-6, +$764
Week 2 alts: 1-18, -$125
Overall officials: 26-12, +$1,328; +31.99% ROI
Overall alts: 2-30, -$142; -39.18% ROI
Props Total: +$1,186; +26.26% ROI
Quinshon Judkins U19.5 Rushing Yards -114 (61, L)
Mean proj: 11.7
Judkins’ props were a wild ride. We released the U19.5 Rush Yards on Saturday, and the rationale was pretty standard — this was a rookie who had spent only a few days with the team; no rookie camp, no training camp, just two practices. We expected a minimal role as he got up to speed in the offense.
There was no precedent to suggest Judkins would take on a significant role in his first week with the team. If he were a veteran? Maybe. A rookie? It’s just not something you see. The market agreed with us, and the line plunged to the 10-11 yard range.
Then, the Sunday reports started rolling in.
The first bump came when NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported Sunday morning that the rookie would get 10-15% of snaps in his debut. Then the real surge came when a Browns beat reporter claimed Judkins would actually get the start, at which point the line was bet all the way back up to the original 19.5. We adjusted our 11.7 projection to 18.9, but it would have required a leap of faith to go much higher.
Judkins ended up playing 25% of snaps and led the backfield with a 48% share of carries.
Considering the complete lack of precedent, plus the fact that these pre-game reports can just as often end up being false, I’m not sure there’s a takeaway here. Presented with the same situation again in the future, we’d likely take the bet again.
Deebo Samuel (WAS) U6.5 Rushing Yards (0, W)
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