Showdown Breakdown: CFB Championship

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY AND TRENDS

We don’t often have the opportunity to play large-field showdown contests in CFB DFS, but many of the same concepts you know from NFL still apply. The primary difference here is that CFB showdown contests do not use team defenses/special teams in the player pool. Sorry, no CPT D/ST arguments. We recommend reviewing this article by ETR’s resident showdown superhero, Cody Main, to help reinforce some macro concepts suited for beating large-field showdown tournaments. There you’ll find his thoughts on proper captain selection, optimal roster construction, and some ideas on how to ensure your lineups aren’t duplicated. Like most DFS formats, the best showdown lineups are created where uniqueness, optimal correlation, and max projected points meet.

TEAM-SPECIFIC ANALYSIS & NOTABLE PRICE CONSIDERATIONS

The college football season wraps up in primetime on Monday with the National Championship that features the Washington Huskies versus the Michigan Wolverines. The game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, so weather will not be a concern. As of Friday, Michigan is a 4-point favorite and we have a healthy game total of ~56 points. Washington comes into the game with the biggest injury concern in running back Dillon Johnson, who was hobbled most of the game last week before finally suffering a more serious injury near the end of the game. He was ultimately carted to the locker room after the game ended, but he seemed in good spirits. The UW coaching staff has said repeatedly this week that they are “expecting him to play”. If he is limited or ruled out (which seems unlikely), Washington would use multiple backs to fill his role but probably would lean on freshman Tybo Rogers and/or just throw more. Tight ends Devin Culp and Jack Westover both suffered minor injuries last game, but everything suggests they were very minor and both are full go. The only injury issue for Michigan is that they will again be without standout offensive lineman Zak Zinter, who was injured at the end of the season, but they overcame that loss last week versus Alabama, so it will not be a new adjustment for the championship game.

The Washington Huskies feature one of the more pass-heavy approaches in college football, checking in at around a 57% pass rate on the season. Michael Penix Jr., a former Indiana Hoosier who trekked out to the west coast to rebuild his career, has been extremely impressive this season, but he is definitely more of a pocket passer than dual-threat option that we are used to targeting in our fantasy contests. Washington did show a few wrinkles in their playoff game last week where they caught Texas off guard with designed runs from Penix, who is fairly athletic (although repeated injury issues have likely swayed him to protect himself from contact). At $11,000, Penix certainly is one of the top overall plays this slate and will be extremely high-owned, but he does have paths to failure considering he is highly reliant on passing touchdowns and hitting the 300+ yard bonus. He has a trio of dangerous wideouts at his disposal in Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja’Lynn Polk. Odunze ($9,800) is the no-doubt primary target who will run the most routes, with McMillan ($7,200) and Polk ($8,800) occasionally getting a series or two off each game. Polk’s big playoff game resulted in an overadjustment from DraftKings on pricing, as he certainly does not deserve to be $1,600 more expensive than McMillan, who grades out as the best point-per-dollar wide receiver of the group. The running game is a huge question mark because Dillon Johnson‘s status is unclear and the backup situation is murky at best. Tybo Rogers at $5,200 is a tough click if Dillon Johnson ($7,800) is indeed dressed and geared up to play. Germie Bernard, who is a wide receiver, lined up a couple of times in the backfield last game, so he could certainly be an option in the running-game mix. Beyond that, Will Nixon and Richard Newton are pure dart throws, but they will likely only see multiple touches if Dillon can’t go. If somehow Dillon Johnson has wolverine-like healing (would that be irony?), he is underpriced given his role in the offense and propensity to fall into the end zone multiple times a game. If Johnson was fully healthy, you would certainly be seeing stronger base projections across the industry — so if you want to bet on his health, you will be getting him at lower ownership than you would be if there were no question marks.

Michigan is a mirror image of their opponent, as they are firmly on team #EstablishIt with their 60+% run rate. However, they did have a much more balanced approach versus Alabama that actually looked a bit fancy at times, which was likely due to all of the time off since the Big Ten championship game to allow for game planning. Also, Alabama is not really a team you can just easily overpower at the line of scrimmage, so it seemed as though they thought it required a more imaginative offensive plan. With only a one-week layoff before the title game, I expect to see a bit more power football from Michigan versus a defense that is much softer. The Washington defensive unit (which is outside of the top 40 in overall defensive efficiency) gets tagged with the “bend but don’t break” moniker, which is not a great label to tout versus this Michigan team who scores a touchdown on 72+% of their red-zone trips (16th nationally).  Their power game starts with their stud, Blake Corum, who runs the ball extremely hard and has a nose for the end zone (25 touchdowns on the season). In four close games this season, Corum has 19, 22, 28, and 26 carries, so he is a very good bet for 20+ touches. Backup quarterback Alex Orji will likely come in the game for a couple of designed runs, but the lion’s share of running back carries should be by Corum (he had 19 of 23 running back carries in the playoff game). Corum at $10,600 is a very reasonable price tag, and with Michigan checking in as favorites, we likely will see him as the highest-owned player on the slate. While only $200 more expensive than J.J. McCarthy, we have a considerable gap (~7 fantasy points) between the running back and the quarterback (which just shows how much Michigan leans on Corum). Backup running back Donovan Edwards at $5,400 is a tough click based on recent usage, but he does provide direct leverage on the highest-owned player of the slate and is historically the much more productive pass-catching back who pairs better with McCarthy in negative game scripts. For balanced lineups that are relying on a competitive game, McCarthy is not a priority at his price tag of $10,400, however, he is more in play for game scripts that either tilt toward Michigan onslaughts or Washington getting out far ahead, which would require Michigan to increase their pass rate. Cornelius Johnson at $4,200 is way underpriced relative to comparably projected Colston Loveland at $6,400 and Roman Wilson at $9,000, although you can poke holes in Johnson’s ability to generate a meaningful ceiling. We see Michigan rotate in Tyler Morris and Semaj Morgan occasionally at receiver, but neither has a safe role and if you use them the goal is to catch lightning in a bottle with a long touchdown catch at low ownership.

TOP PLAYS