1. This draft will be chock full of trades.
Because this year’s prospect class lacks top-tier talent beyond the top three or four players, the draft-capital cost for teams to trade up figures to be reduced.
There is also a bevy of veterans rumored to be available.
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins, Eagles TE Dallas Goedert, Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey, Ravens TE Mark Andrews, Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, Raiders TE Michael Mayer, Steelers WR George Pickens, Browns CB Gregory Newsome, Giants EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Packers CB Jaire Alexander, Jaguars WR Gabe Davis, Titans QB Will Levis, Lions WR Jameson Williams, and Jets RB Breece Hall have all either been the subject of trade rumors or are known to be on the block.
This should make for exciting Thursday and Friday nights.
2. Only one quarterback will go in the top 20 picks.
We know Cam Ward is going No. 1.
But virtually none of the talent evaluators I trust have identified a single quarterback besides Ward as a genuine first-round talent.
Common player comparisons for Shedeur Sanders include Teddy Bridgewater and Andy Dalton.
Jaxson Dart’s arm talent is considered mediocre at best.
Tyler Shough will be a 26-year-old rookie.
Jalen Milroe, at present, is not an NFL-caliber passer.
I like the odds on under 2.5 quarterbacks going in the first round (+150).
3. Offensive linemen will be taken extremely aggressively.
Top media evaluators call this a “starter’s draft” wherein teams will be seeking first-team hits — singles and doubles, in baseball parlance — as opposed to franchise-changing grand slams.
And there is a projected cliff drop on starting-caliber offensive linemen about midway through the second round.
I projected eight offensive linemen to go in Round 1 in my final mock. (I have three in the top seven picks.)
From a betting standpoint, I think over 6.5 OLs going on Thursday night is close to a lock (-200 odds).
4. Three running backs will go in the first round.
Like offensive linemen, first-round running backs tend to be “safe” picks with high floors. They’re not necessarily needle movers, but they’re good bets to be quality players in the league. In a class like this one, I think teams will lean on the safe side with early-round selections.
I think Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, and TreVeyon Henderson all go in Round 1.
As of Thursday afternoon, the over on 2.5 first-round running backs offered +130 odds.
5. Michigan CB Will Johnson is going to slide.
Johnson was a projected top-five NFL pick entering his final season at Michigan. Yet neither Daniel Jeremiah nor Lance Zierlein included Johnson in their final first-round mocks.
I worry that Johnson flunked the medical phase of his evaluation after missing 10 games across the 2023 and 2024 seasons due to knee, shoulder, and turf toe injuries. He didn’t run a 40-yard dash before the draft.
In Ann Arbor, Johnson also earned a reputation as a gambler in coverage.
I’m betting Kentucky’s Maxwell Hairston will be the second cornerback drafted (behind Travis Hunter) at 6-to-1 odds.
