Strength in Numbers: Actionable Week 13 Stats

We’re going to get a lot of stuff wrong, but sifting through usage metrics can help us work through what matters and what doesn’t. That’s the goal of this article: to break down the most actionable takeaways from each week in a concise, numbers-filled format and work through what’s important. Let’s get right to it:

1. Over his past three games (all with Jameson Williams back from suspension), Sam LaPorta has had no lower than a 17% target share. He only had a double-digit target share twice in Detroit’s first six games. He’s back to being a mid-range TE1 despite only recording six yards (but two touchdowns!) on Thanksgiving.

2. David Montgomery out-carried Jahmyr Gibbs 21-9 against the Bears, suggesting the Lions were truthful in saying he could have came back in Week 12 after exiting with an injury. Gibbs’ 11.4% target share was his highest since Week 7 (16%), and it was only his second double-digit share in that time frame. His passing-game role has dwindled compared to last season, but the Detroit offense is such a machine that he remains an RB1.

3. Per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, D’Andre Swift got two short-yardage snaps and one goal-line snap with Roschon Johnson exiting early, but Travis Homer filled in as the long-down-and-distance back with 14 routes on 19 snaps (though Swift did play more on third downs and in the 2-minute drill than he does with Roschon). Johnson missing would open up a real ceiling for Swift with the increased goal-line work.

4. D.J. Moore was third among Bears WRs in targets during Thomas Brown‘s first two games as OC, but he exploded for 16 targets vs. Detroit. This WR trio will be frustrating week to week, but all three have a real ceiling.

5. Brandin Cooks ran 20 routes on 37 dropbacks in his first game back from injury. It’s unclear whether he will surpass Jalen Tolbert as the WR2, but I would expect him to separate from Jonathan Mingo (30-26 snaps advantage for Cooks) as he gets healthier.