Strength in Numbers: Actionable Week 4 Stats

Joe Burrow (calf) reportedly looked much better in practice entering Week 4 and squared off against one of the league’s worst pass defenses in the Titans. He threw for 165 yards on 5.5 yards per attempt. We’re going to get a lot of stuff wrong, but sifting through usage metrics can help us work through what matters and what doesn’t. That’s the goal of this article: to break down the most actionable takeaways from each week in a concise, numbers-filled format and work through what’s important. Let’s get right to it.

Bijan Robinson’s backfield share continues to rise

Robinson’s carry share over time: 38.5% (Week 1), 42.2%, 50.0%, 63.6% (Week 4). Meanwhile, Tyler Allgeier‘s carry share has fallen in four consecutive games, opening with a 57.7% mark in the season opener and culminating with a 31.8% share against the Jaguars. The first-round rookie is taking hold of the Falcons’ backfield, and he’s been massively involved in the passing game the entire time. In fact, Robinson’s 18.5% seasonal target share leads the team, and he has yet to post lower than a 15.8% target share in any individual game.

In Weeks 2 and 3, Cordarrelle Patterson was healthy based on the injury reports but was still inactive. He made his season debut in London but failed to register an offensive snap. Patterson looks wholly irrelevant at this point, and even if he does start playing on offense, that would likely come at the expense of either Allgeier or a secondary WR rather than Robinson.

Allgeier may never go away completely given how much the Falcons run the ball and how much he flashed last season, but any concerns about Arthur Smith limiting his star RB’s workload can be safely quelled. Robinson can be safely penciled in for 12-15 carries per game alongside a huge role as a receiver. While game script hasn’t been in Atlanta’s favor the past two games — which, admittedly, likely hurts Allgeier’s rushing volume more than Robinson’s — his ceiling in positive game script is truly massive.

De’Von Achane steals RB1 duties from Raheem Mostert

Achane’s meteoric rise continued in Week 4, as he surged past Mostert in snap rate with a 60.0% share to the veteran’s 43.7%. The Texas A&M product also out-carried Mostert for the second consecutive game (8-7), although game script prevented the Dolphins from running that much. Perhaps most importantly is that Achane was legitimately electric once again, scoring a touchdown on his first two touches and recording 101 yards on just eight rushing attempts (including a 55-yarder), while Mostert had just nine yards on seven carries. Achane is now averaging 11.4 yards per carry on the season. That number will surely plummet by six or seven yards moving forward, but it has likely entrenched him as a centerpiece of the Miami offense.

PFF’s Nathan Jahnke noted that Achane held a 23-12 edge on early downs, while there was a relatively even split on third downs and in the 2-minute drill. Achane was touted all summer as a pass-catching specialist, so it’s notable that that’s the one area in which he did not clearly separate from Mostert against the Bills. Still, rookie RBs are often eased into pass-catching situations and there’s plenty of time for Achane to progress into the primary receiving back.