Strength in Numbers: Actionable Week 7 Stats

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We’re going to get a lot of stuff wrong, but sifting through usage metrics can help us work through what matters and what doesn’t. That’s the goal of this article: to break down the most actionable takeaways from each week in a concise, numbers-filled format and work through what’s important. Let’s get right to it:

1. D’Andre Swift played 76% of first-half snaps in Week 5 and 78% in Week 6. Roschon Johnson‘s snap counts were artificially inflated by an abnormal game script in both games — first with the Bears getting blown out in Week 5 and then with them up big for much of the second half in Week 6. On Thursday, in a tighter game, Swift dominated snaps, playing 86%, running 20 routes on 39 dropbacks, and getting four targets (12.1% target share). Swift out-carried Roschon 22-2. Kyle Monangai could be back next game, but the Bears seem keen to lean heavily on Swift as long as Roschon is their RB2.

2. Coming off season-low snap and route participation in Week 6, Luther Burden III was still the WR3 from a playing-time and route standpoint, playing 61% of snaps and running 27 routes on 39 dropbacks. Still, he was highly productive, catching all four of his targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. Burden isn’t a full-time player, but Cole Kmet‘s injury could force the Bears into more 11 personnel, and Burden has been so incredible per snap and per route that he remains an every-week starter.

3. Corey Kiner made it a three-headed Patriots backfield in Week 6, and that continued on Thursday with Kiner out-carrying TreVeyon Henderson 4-3. With New England in negative game script for much of the game, Rhamondre Stevenson dominated snaps, playing 69%, running 19 routes on 36 dropbacks and earning five targets (16.1% target share). He caught all five for 93 yards and a touchdown, including a miraculous 48-yard touchdown to end the first half. Kiner’s involvement is bad news for both Stevenson and Henderson, but more so Henderson, considering Stevenson at least has the pass-catching acumen to get there on a weekly basis. Still, this backfield looks like a headache from a carry standpoint, with a hot-hand approach likely moving forward.

4. A.J. Brown was again quiet, catching just three of six targets for 48 yards. It’s possible the high ankle sprain is impacting his effectiveness, but the role remains strong. Brown played 91% of snaps and ran 33 routes, though his six targets on 31 team pass attempts is pretty disappointing.

5. CJ Donaldson played just four snaps before leaving. Without Donaldson, Alvin Kamara played seven snaps on third down to Kendre Miller‘s one, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke. Kamara ran 22 routes on 41 dropbacks, finishing second on the team with seven targets and catching all seven for 57 yards. Kamara was also off the injury report for the first time in a few weeks leading into Week 7, and he drew the start over Miller in this game, although Miller still out-carried Kamara 8-6. Neither Saints running back was effective on the ground, with Miller and Kamara combining for 11 rushing yards on 14 carries. If Donaldson misses time, Kamara could become interesting in PPR formats as the primary pass-down back, although this rushing game is so ineffective that it’s hard to get too excited. We also don’t have much information on when Travis Etienne will be back.