Name: Adam Levitan, Former King GPP Bro
Prop: Who will win MVP?
Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba +550
Book: DraftKings
Last year in this space, I took Jalen Hurts to be MVP. That was a price-induced bet as the public piled into Saquon Barkley at +250, allowing a QB to get to +380.
This year, I’m using QB overconfidence to my advantage. While I do agree Sam Darnold is the most likely MVP if the Seahawks win, this is not a normal passing game. It can get outrageously condensed. JSN saw an absurd 33.9% of the targets this season, accounted for 44.1% of the receiving yards, and stockpiled 40% of the receiving TDs. In other words, a mediocre Darnold game does not mean a mediocre JSN game. That’s not normal; typically, huge WR games are correlated strongly with huge QB games.
Name: Jack Miller
Prop: Will there be a 2-point conversion attempted?
Bet: No -175
Book: DraftKings
I think this one is mispriced basically every year (until a super 2-point-heavy team makes the Super Bowl). While there were 128 2-point tries attempted this year, that figure is misleading because some games include multiple 2-point tries from the same team or one-plus 2-point tries from each team. It’s irrelevant how many total 2-point conversion attempts there are — losing with five 2-point attempts in one game is the same as one attempt. We care exclusively about the over-under of 0.5, and there were 85 regular-season games with at least one 2-point attempt this year, or 31.3% of all games. Both the Patriots and the Seahawks rank below league average in terms of 2-pointers tried (0.2 per game each), and neither the spread nor the total is particularly extreme.
Name: Patrick Barnes
Prop: Most rushing yards
Bet: Drake Maye +500
Book: DraftKings
In big games, teams lean on their best weapons, and Drake Maye is the Patriots’ best weapon. Seattle hasn’t faced many true dual-threat quarterbacks this season, and the few they have struggled to contain have been mobile QBs. Jayden Daniels cleared 50 rushing yards with a TD, and Kyler Murray went for 40+ yards. This Seahawks pass rush creates pressure, but that often works both ways, as it forces QBs to scramble and rack up rushing yards. That game script sets up perfectly for Maye. We’ve already seen Maye take over with his legs when it matters. He’s logged 10+ carries in two of three playoff games, something he only did twice during the regular season, and he’s averaging 47 rushing yards in those spots. When protection breaks down or drives stall, he isn’t afraid to call his own number. Think playoff-mode “Superman” games, like we’ve seen from Josh Allen. On the other side, I don’t love the rushing outlook for Seattle’s backs. The Patriots’ run defense has been elite, allowing just 116 total RB rushing yards this entire postseason (38.6 per game). They stack the box less than 20% of the time but still rank top 10 in EPA per rush allowed. That’s a tough matchup for Kenneth Walker III. He’s explosive, but he’s been bottom 10 in EPA against neutral/light boxes. If New England forces him into patience and vision runs instead of chunk plays, it limits his ceiling. There’s a very realistic path where Maye scrambles 10-12 times and gets to 65+ yards. In this market, that might be all you need to cash. At +500, the upside is absolutely worth the shot.
Name: Alex Hardin, CFB Enthusiast
Prop: MVP: Sam Darnold vs. The Field
Bet: The Field -155
Book: FanDuel
Being the QB of the favored side, Sam Darnold is obviously the betting favorite to win MVP (+115 on FanDuel). However, the Seahawks’ offense is really concentrated from a volume perspective at both RB (now with the Zach Charbonnet injury) and WR (Jaxon Smith-Njigba), which leaves more paths than usual for the Seahawks to win the game and there to be a non-QB MVP. Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have won six of the previous nine Super Bowl MVP awards, but they held the clear “star power” title in those offenses. They also orchestrated offenses where they typically spread the ball around quite a bit across the skill positions. Beyond the additional outs of non-QB MVP in a Seattle win, I am personally a bit higher on this Patriots team than the market to actually win the game (Darnold has virtually zero chance of winning MVP in a New England victory). All factors considered, I like covering the field on this prop bet as a piece of a props portfolio that will be Patriots-slanted.
Name: Cort Smith
Prop: Most Receiving Yards – Kenneth Walker III vs. Rhamondre Stevenson
Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson -106
Book: FanDuel
RB target share against the Seahawks’ defense lives at the extreme, both in our modeling and in the counting numbers. We have them allowing a 19.8% share vs. opposing RBs for a 108% multiplier (100% would be exactly average). That’s not only the biggest DvP multiplier we have for RBs, but it’s also the biggest multiplier for any position in any matchup.
Seattle allowed a league-leading 97 receptions to backs in the regular season (though playing Christian McCaffrey twice a year helps). While the Patriots allowed the fifth-most catches to RBs (84), our modeling puts them more in the middle of the pack with a 100.8% multiplier against on RB target share.
Walker is more explosive and had some gaudy receiving numbers in Zach Charbonnet’s absence in the Championship Round. Still, he didn’t even lead the backfield in routes, running 40% of them to George Holani‘s 43% in that game. Meanwhile, Stevenson is dominating receiving work as the stakes ramp up, running routes at a 57% rate in the playoffs.
Walker’s ceiling is higher, but on the median result, we project him for 18 yards to Rhamondre’s 21. Our sim gives a true price of -124 on Stevenson, making -106 a solid value.
Name: Producer Ryan, humbly 3-0 in ETR Staff Super Bowl Props picks
Prop: Record Sack, Forced Fumble, and Fumble Recovery on Same Play
Bet: Demarcus Lawrence +7500
Book: DraftKings
You can also settle for +1100 on Lawrence to have a strip sack without the recovery if you’re too yellow-bellied to have fun during the Super Bowl. Lawrence (dawg) is not only coming off a “fortuitous bust,” but also three sacks and four forced fumbles in his last four games with only Will “Future Left Guard” Campbell and his shrimp mitts separating him from the NFL’s most-sacked, most-fumbly quarterback. Lawrence spent most of his regular-season snaps on the left side, but he has taken the majority of his postseason snaps on the right side, which would line him up with ole toddler arms.
Name: Ryan Reynolds
Prop: Super Bowl MVP
Bet: Byron Murphy II, +15000
Book: BetMGM
As Establish The Run’s NFL awards guy, I must not only do what’s right and provide a Super Bowl MVP bet, but I must pick a long shot. Enter Murphy II, who is essentially a bet on the Seahawks’ pass rush derailing this game and New England’s struggles against real defenses in the postseason continuing. Seattle’s front is more of a group of equals than having a true headliner, but I like Murphy’s matchup the best, as the Patriots’ weakest areas on their offensive line are center and right guard. Murphy is well positioned to have a spike game, and if this game ends up being an under, that opens the door for a defender to win. Give me Murphy II at 150:1 odds on BetMGM.
Name: Justin Herzig
Prop: Mentions – what will the announcers say?
Bet: Robert Kraft, NO, 10¢ (+900)
Book: Kalshi
Usually, we bet on sports, which is cool, but now we can bet on not only what happens on the field, but what the announcers will or won’t say. I’m honing in on the Robert Kraft mention because I think this price is too heavily based on previous Patriots Super Bowls, where Kraft was front and center with the dynasty. But in a game where the Seahawks take control and win, the second half will be more focused on Seattle storylines vs. the same-old Patriots. Give me the long odds on this one. It also doesn’t hurt that he didn’t get the Hall of Fame nod, which would have been another reason to bring up his name.
Name: John Earley, Video Editing Grunt
Prop: Super Bowl MVP
Bet: Christian Gonzalez, +15000
Book: FanDuel
It’s happened before. Among the 10 defensive players who have won Super Bowl MVP, Larry Brown in Super Bowl XXX is the only corner to ever accomplish the feat. Gonzalez is a top-five overall player in this game, and his impact will be felt. If time is a flat circle, it’s worth noting that Sam Darnold’s first career pass attempt was a pick-six. After surviving several torturous years and clawing back to the brink of glory, the wheel turns, and Darnold meets his beginning at the end, as a backbreaking pick-six thrown to Gonzalez propels a Patriots upset over the Seahawks.
Name: Pat Thorman, Party Pooper
Prop: 1st Half Total
Bet: Under 22.5 (-112)
Book: DraftKings
Both offenses played slowly over the second half of the season, while their games were mid-pack in scoring and low in play volume. Foes also have operated slowly against these tough defenses, with Seattle ranking 26th in opponent Neutral Pace Over Expected and New England 30th. Expect a deliberately-paced, first-quarter feeling-out process, which, when paired with a run-heavy Seahawks offense and increasing handoffs from the Patriots, will grind game clock faster than Over bettors’ nerves.
Name: Sam Walczak, Sim Bro
Prop: Most Rushing Yards in Game
Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson
Book: DraftKings (+255), FanDuel (+260)
Kenneth Walker III is, rightfully, a heavy favorite in this category, but Rhamondre has taken a grip on the New England backfield touches during the playoffs and can absolutely challenge Walker if game script tilts in the Patriots’ favor. We make a fair price on this bet +225, so the market prices in the +250-270 range are comfortably showing as +EV.
