Thanks to our fantasy projections, understanding of football, and gambling knowledge, we were able to torch the books on player props this year. We are 212-118 so far this season, with the Super Bowl pending.
The Super Bowl is a celebration of sorts, with a massive menu and a lot of fun bets. Below you’ll find props our staff likes, but isn’t necessarily +EV. It’s stuff we can get a good sweat on. Enjoy!
1. Name: Adam Levitan, Former King GPP Bro
Prop: Total Made Field Goals
Bet: Over 3.5 +130
Book: Caesar’s
Notes: Sean McVay and Zac Taylor have both shown cowardly playcalling tendencies. We can capitalize on that through this FG prop – there’s nothing like rooting for bad fourth-down decisions and “take the points” philosophies. Matt Gay has attempted nine field goals in three playoff games and Evan McPherson has attempted 12.
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2. Name: Anthony Amico, Special Teams Hardo
Prop: Trent Taylor Total Yards of Longest Punt Return
Bet: Over 6.5 Yards +100
Book: Caesar’s
Notes: The Rams have one of the best overall special teams units in the NFL, but are actually pretty close to league average on punt team based on DVOA. Trent Taylor is an excellent returner, averaging 9.3 yards for his career on 56 returns. Despite the high-ish total in this game, I could see it getting pretty conservative and low-scoring, with plenty of punts.
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3. Name: Michael Leone, Degenerate
Prop: To Score 2+ Touchdowns
Bet: CJ Uzomah +4400
Book: FanDuel
Notes: Uzomah is questionable with a knee injury, which is leading to an inflated line. He’s scored multiple TDs twice this season, and even if he’s limited, he’ll likely see regular snaps as a receiving threat in the red zone. This line also has a big discrepancy relative to other books (+1500 on DK for example).
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4. Name: Kyle Daily, YouTube Assclown-Thumbnail Artist
Prop: Total Players to Have a Pass Attempt
Bet: Over 2.5 +175
Book: Caesar’s
Notes: Getting unduly excited when Johnny Hekker throws a dime is what max fun prop bets are all about. We last saw Playoff-Hekker attempting a pass in the 2018 NFC Conference Championship game on their way to their Super Bowl drubbing. Barring a fake punt, we have outs with receivers who’ve gotten the call already this season — Cooper Kupp and Tyler Boyd in regular regular season, and Odell against the Cardinals on Wild Card weekend.
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5. Name: Jake Hoverman, Matchups Narrator
Prop: Any Team to Kick a Game Winning Walk Off Field Goal at End of Regular Time
Bet: Yes, +500
Book: DraftKings
Notes: The Rams and Bengals combined for 20 single-score games, 14 of which were decided by a margin of three points or less. The Bengals alone had five walk-off winners, two of which were in the postseason. Evan McPherson is on a tear, and Matt Gay has been even better this season with a made FG percentage of 94.1%. Whether it’s due to overly conventional game-calling leading to close games or pure variance, this long-suffering Vikings fan will take any opportunity to profit from a critical kick. Or I’ve jinxed them both and will once again be left reeling by a missed field goal.
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6. Name: Alex Levy, Paid ETR Podcast Listener/Summarizer
Prop: Jayson Tatum 3-pointers made vs. Rams total touchdowns
Bet: Jayson Tatum Threes Made (+160)
Book: DraftKings
Notes: Tatum gets the miserable Hawks defense at home on Super Bowl Sunday with a 2pm ET game time. Tatum is a career 38% 3-point shooter having a down year, but he’s shown his ceiling lately with games of 6, 7, and 9 treys made in January. The Hawks are a bottom-five defense and allow teams to shoot the sixth-best percentage from 3 in the NBA. Tatum averages just under three 3PM per game, so even a mediocre output from him has this bet very live with the Rams’ implied total of 26 points and a game that I like to go under. I like the idea of Tatum having a ceiling performance, freeing me from sweating this all game.
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7. Name: Zenan Sutton, TiltSpace Editing Connoisseur
Prop: Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards
Bet: Over 5.5 Yards -110
Book: DraftKings
Notes: Taking a slight favorite in this feisty matchup! In last week’s pod, both Levitan and Silva expressed an increase in QB rushing entering the playoffs and Stafford has continued the trend heading into the Super Bowl. In the last three playoff games, Stafford has combined for 15 rush attempts totaling 36 yards and has hit over 5.5 yards in each. The Bengals’ defense has also combined for eight sacks in the last three playoff games. Expecting some early pressure on the offensive line, we could see a few Stafford scrambles bringing home that sweet prop bet cash.
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8. Name: Stephen Krupka, Digital Media
Prop: Color of Gatorade Poured on Winning Head Coach
Bet: Blue +400
Book: DraftKings
Notes: While the temptation here might be to bet “Orange” at +200, we’re going “Blue” at +400, and not because the Rams are favored to win. According to a former Gatorade executive in an interview with The Athletic, the Gatorade used in the winning bath is not only selected by Gatorade itself, but it is also intentionally randomized. So, how are we to make an educated bet? Well, let’s take a look at current “Winning Bath” trends. While “Orange” has won five of the last 12 years, “Blue” has been the winning color in two of the last three years and in three of the last seven. Before 2015, however, “Blue” had NEVER won in data dating back to 2001. The growing popularity of Blue Gatorade in the US is further confirmed by Gatorade itself, as a representative of the company cited internal sales data in December of 2020 naming “Cool Blue” as the most popular flavor of Gatorade in America. The full rankings? 1. Cool Blue 2. Fruit Punch 3. Lemon Lime 4. Glacier Freeze 5. Orange. If you’re not a Gatorade fanatic, you probably missed this very important detail in that Top 5. “Glacier Freeze,” the fourth-most popular flavor, is ALSO blue. So, if Cool Blue isn’t the flavor used in the winning bath, you could still get bailed out by Glacier Freeze. In short, Blue is the bet at +400, not simply because it’s the team color of the home favorite, but because it’s the most popular color of Gatorade in the USA and offers multiple paths to cashing.
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9. Name: Pat Thorman, Mayor of Narrative Street
Prop: MVP
Bet: Eric Weddle +30000
Book: DraftKings
Notes: It doesn’t take a Sean McVay level genius to see this is a prayer — although McVay’s cowardly decisions could help turn the game into the low-scoring affair necessary for a defender to get MVP consideration. A safety hasn’t won MVP since Super Bowl VII, when Jake Scott picked off two passes. If Weddle can manage one, and maybe a fumble recovery, his off-the-couch cinematic storyline is the kind that resonates with boomer MVP voters who want to vote for guys like Jake Scott again.
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10. Name: Jackson Kane, #GrammarBro/Copy Editor
Prop: 1st Play Specials
Bet: Either QB to get Sacked on their 1st Offensive Play, +2500
Book: DraftKings
Notes: Each team has played in three playoff games thus far. Both QBs have dropped back to pass on their first offensive play two out of three times. Joe Burrow was actually sacked on his first offensive play versus the Titans in the Divisional Round. With Aaron Donald and Von Miller squaring off against a below-average Cincy offensive line, I think these odds are pretty good.
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11. Name: Nick Van Kampen, Summary Guy
Prop: MVP
Bet: Evan McPherson +15000
Book: DraftKings
Notes: McPherson is in play to be the first kicker in NFL history to win Super Bowl MVP. He’s already 12/12 in the playoffs (4/4 in each game) – two of which made the Bengals walk off winners. The SB record for FGs in a single game is 4 so his average playoff game ties that record, while making a measly 3 FGs breaks Adam Vinatieri’s seemingly-untouchable record of 14 FG makes in a single postseason. Queue up the Randy Marsh wheelbarrow GIFs for when McPherson walks it off again in a record-breaking effort.
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12. Name: John Nannetti, Summary Designer
Prop: Will there be an Octopus
Bet: Yes +1400
Book: Draftkings
Notes: Betting on a player to score 8 points in a single drive is tough but who doesn’t wanna take an Octopus. In history there have been 140 Octopi of the 988 successful 2pt. Conversions in the last 25 years, just under 15%. The Rams are 66% on 2pt. Conversions this year and Cinnicantic is 3/3 on their last 3 attempts. With everything on the line and coaches being more aggressive in recent years one could see this coming to fruition with the game on the line.
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13. Name: Cody Main, Showdown Virgin
Prop: Touchdown Scorers
Bet: Odell Beckham to score the first TD & Tee Higgins to score the second TD +10000
Book: FanDuel
Notes: Since Week 12, Beckham has been a Matthew Stafford favorite near the goalline, seeing just three fewer end zone targets (7) than Cooper Kupp (10). The Rams’ seventh-highest Red Zone PROE (+2.6%) should result in a few opportunities for Beckham to find paydirt. On the other side, Cincinnati has been even more pass-heavy in the Red Zone, ranking fifth in RZ PROE (+4.2%). While the focus will be on the Ja’Marr Chase and the shower narrative, Higgins has just two fewer EZ targets (13) than Chase (15) this season. Popping in the PSM, the star sophomore has a full seven inches on Rams CB Darious Williams and five inches on David Long.
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14. Name: Jack Miller, Props Grinder
Prop: Time that final play of the game is completed
Bet: 10:14:59 PM ET or Earlier -108
Book: BetRivers (Kambi)
Notes: The Super Bowl is a full-fledged event – not just a football game – with a concert at halftime, increased focus on commercials, and myriad stoppages throughout the game, but the game is set to kick off at 6:30 PM ET, meaning it would need to stretch nearly four hours for this prop to lose. 4for4’s Dalton Kates pointed out that only three Super Bowls since 2005 have gone this long – and one of those was the infamous blackout game during the Ravens vs. 49ers Super Bowl. One of the other games that went over was when the Patriots and Falcons went to overtime in the 28-3 game. So yes, the Super Bowl is likely to go longer than your average Sunday afternoon game, but it’s a big ask for it to exceed three hours and 45 minutes.
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15. Name: Gary Hartman, NBA and NFL GPP Bro
Prop: Rams Total Sacks
Bet: Over 3.5 +105
Book: DraftKings
Notes: The Rams were 7th in the NFL in sacks per game this year at 2.8, which explains this being a +money bet, but let’s not forget the Bengals biggest weakness by far: their offensive line. Obviously Burrow has thrived under pressure, but we saw a similarly talented Tennessee D-Line pile up 9 sacks in the divisional round, and you have to imagine Raheem Morris’s game plan is to get pressure anyway he can. Even if Burrow works his magic, four sacks is in the range of outcomes. It’s especially worth a shot at positive value.
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16. Name: Ryan Reynolds, Waiver Wire and Awards Betting Savant
Prop: First sack
Bet: Leonard Floyd, +1200
Book: PointsBet
Notes: One of the keys to this game is the Bengals ability to mitigate Aaron Donald (+350 first sack line) and the Rams pass rush. With Floyd I’m getting him at a value here (his first sack line is 6:1 on DraftKings, as an example) where I view him and Von Miller (+400 to +500 first sack line) as close to equals at this point in Miller’s career. Throw in that Floyd will likely see more of Bengals right tackle Isaiah Prince than Miller and that it would be malpractice on Cincinnati’s part to leave Donald in one-on-one situations, and I like Floyd’s chances to hit here at a good price.
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17. Name: Mark Dankenbring, former HBO miniseries star
Prop: MVP
Bet: Jalen Ramsey, 100-1
Book: MGM, DraftKings
Notes: It’s admittedly rare for a defender to win MVP. It’s only happened twice in the last 18 years. But corners can win the MVP — Larry Brown did it in Super Bowl XXX and Dexter Jackson took it home in Super Bowl XXXVI. The price of 100-1 here implies that Ramsey only has a 1% chance. And given Ramsey’s name value, he has some sway with voters if he can get a pick-6 or multi interceptions.
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18. Name: Michael Leone, Spreadsheet Virgin
Prop: Alt Receiving Lines
Bet: Odell Beckham 125+ yards +880, Van Jefferson 80+ yards +750
Book: FanDuel
Notes: Both Beckham and Van Jefferson should see downfield targets in this game, giving them a bit more ceiling to their yardage than usual relative to their median projections. There’s also room for total WR targets to grow for the Rams with Tyler Higbee out. The Rams have a tight playing time distribution as is. Beckham and Van Jefferson have played nearly 90% of the team’s snaps the last two weeks, in addition to Cooper Kupp playing 100% of snaps.
