Welcome to The Rundown: Week 2. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. We’ll also provide some additional stats and notes to help make those crucial decisions when building and setting your lineups on Sunday mornings. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.
|Kickoff||O/U||Game||Forecast||GPP (DK)||GPP (FD)|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||CLE||39.5||TEN (+3.5) @ CLE||70 °F, Slight Chance Rain Showers||-1.1||-1.4|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||DET||46.5||ATL (+3) @ DET||69 °F, Slight Chance Rain Showers||-0.7||-1.2|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||GB||42.0||NO (+1) @ GB||67 °F, Slight Chance Rain Showers||0.7||0.4|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||MIA||48.0||DEN (+6.5) @ MIA||85 °F, Likely Rain Showers||0.8||1.5|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||MIN||54.0||LAC (+1) @ MIN||66 °F, Chance Rain Showers||1.8||1.8|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||NYJ||36.0||NE (-2.5) @ NYJ||64 °F, Definite Rain Showers||-2.5||-2.6|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||WSH||43.0||BUF (-6) @ WSH||67 °F, Chance Rain Showers||-0.4||-1|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||JAX||43.5||HOU (+7.5) @ JAX||88 °F, Slight Chance Thunderstorms||0.6||0.5|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||BAL||43.5||IND (+8) @ BAL||67 °F, Chance Rain Showers||0.4||-0.6|
|Sun @ 4:05 PM||SEA||42.0||CAR (+5.5) @ SEA||61 °F, Definite Rain||0.7||0.9|
|Sun @ 4:25 PM||KC||48.0||CHI (+12.5) @ KC||79 °F, Clear||0||1.8|
|Sun @ 4:25 PM||ARI||43.0||DAL (-13) @ ARI||95 °F, Clear||-0.3||-0.1|
Packers at Falcons, 1 p.m. EST
- Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game a slow-paced slog. The Packers moved faster in Week 1 than they have in recent seasons only because it would be impossible to play any slower. Green Bay operated at the sixth-slowest pace while their victory over the Bears remained close, and they mustered only 60 snaps. The Packers would likely require a fast-paced opponent or a significant scoreboard deficit to play with more urgency. The Falcons are not the fast-paced opponent we’re looking for to ignite the Packers. Atlanta pretty much represents nothing we’re looking for. Last year, the Falcons operated at the fifth-slowest situation-neutral pace, handed off at the third-highest rate, and ran the fifth-fewest plays. On Sunday, Atlanta squeezed out a pathetic 48 snaps while registering targets to non-RBs on a comically low 18.6% of passes.
- Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Romeo Doubs($4,800 DK) and Jayden Reed ($3,400 DK, $5,100 FD) as honorable mentions. Both Packers WRs are “wait-and-see” options based on the status of Christian Watson.
- DFS Top Plays: The ETR team listed Luke Musgrave ($3,200 DK) as the second best TE play on DraftKings. Musgrave was rock solid in his pro debut (3/50/0) and led all Packers pass catchers in snaps (45 of 60 for a 75% share). Green Bay is also still dealing with injuries with both of their top offensive options, Christian Watson and Aaron Jones, questionable for Week Two.
Silva’s Matchups Takes:
- “I’m approaching Jordan Love as a mere QB2 this week, especially considering this game’s low total.”
- “A.J. Dillon looked slower than molasses against Chicago, but his workload projection is too high to ignore…Dillon is a volume-based RB2 starter at Atlanta.”
- “Even after Romeo Doubs hit paydirt twice at Chicago, I prefer Jayden Reed this week straight up…both are WR3/flex options.”
- “The Falcons are physical enough on the offensive line and committed enough to these two that both Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson can be fantasy starters, Robinson of the RB1 variety and Allgeier as an RB2/flex. I expect each to handle 13-19 touches against the Packers.”
- “I’m still starting Kyle Pitts as a low-end TE1, but I need to see something from Drake London first.”
Raiders at Bills, 1 p.m. EST
- OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn didn’t see a notable mismatch from this game. The Bills (OL 21st; DL 12th) and the Raiders (OL 25th; DL 16th) are each average on both sides of the ball.
- DFS Top Plays: The ETR team listed Davante Adams ($7,600 DK, $7,500 FD) as a top WR play on both DraftKings (first) and FanDuel (second). Adams has a massive ceiling in what might be the best fantasy game to attack this week outside of Chiefs-Jaguars. The team also listed Josh Allen ($7,900 DK, $9,200 FD) as a top QB play on both DraftKings (first) and FanDuel (second). Coming off of a week to forget, Allen gets a prime bounce-back spot back at home against a Raiders defense that doesn’t scare you.
Silva’s Matchups Takes:
- “Josh Jacobs is coming off a painfully unlucky opener in which he logged five carries inside the 10-yard line and failed to execute on any of them. Jacobs did handle 21 of 23 (91%) touches in Vegas’ backfield and remains a locked-in RB1 here.”
- “Jakobi Meyers’ absence should increase Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo’s emphasis on feeding Davante Adams.”
- “Hunter Renfrow, Kristian Wilkerson, and DeAndre Carter rounded out the Raiders’ active wide receivers in Week 1. They all played equally and combined for one target.”
- “The Raiders were barely tested by game manager Russell Wilson in Week 1, but DC Patrick Graham’s unit coughed up the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy quarterback points in 2022…Josh Allen is my overall QB1 in fantasy for Week 2.”
- “I want my fantasy starters to dominate high-value opportunities. I have James Cook as a flex option.”
- “Allen-to-Diggs DFS stacks should be extremely popular after Stefon Diggs dominated the Jets’ stout secondary en route to 10/102/1 receiving in Week 1. The Raiders’ starting perimeter corners are 30-year-old journeyman Marcus Peters and fourth-round rookie Jakorian Bennett.”
- “I’m treating Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid as if they’re canceling each other out until one clearly emerges.”
Ravens at Bengals, 1 p.m. EST
- OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn didn’t see a notable mismatch from this game. The Bengals’ OL ranks seventh in Thorn’s Week Two rankings, while the Ravens’ OL (16th) is dealing wit injuries to LT Ronnie Stanley and C Tyler Linderbaum.
- Buy Leone: Tee Higgins ($6400 DK, 12.3 ppg of under performance — highest among all WRs) and Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900 DK, 5.5 ppg of under performance — fourth highest among all WRs) both appear in this week’s model.
- DFS Top Plays: The ETR team listed Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900 DK, $8,400 FD) as a top WR play on both DraftKings (third) and FanDuel (third). Chase gets a very good redemption spot against a Ravens team that he has historically burned (he has accumulated 30/462/2 in four career contests vs. Baltimore).
Silva’s Matchups Takes:
- “Lamar Jackson is a boom-bust QB1 this week. Cincinnati’s D/ST is a sleeper.”
- “I’m viewing Justice Hill as a low-end flex option and Gus Edwards as a touchdown-or-bust flex play.”
- “Zay Flowers dominated Week 1 targets (10), was manufactured touches in both the run and pass games versus Houston, and delivered four plays of 15-plus yards. The Ravens’ first-round pick has already earned WR2 treatment.”
- “Odell Beckham played over Rashod Bateman in Week 1, although each drew three targets, and neither inspires confidence as a Week 2 play.”
- “Baltimore’s defense is nowhere near as talented as Cleveland’s, especially without ballhawk FS Marcus Williams (torn pec) and top CB Marlon Humphrey (foot). I’m putting Joe Burrow on the QB1/2 fringe.”
- “I’m staying optimistic on Joe Mixon as a fringe RB1/2 starter with Cincinnati favored at home and a realistic chance at 20 touches here.”
- “I’m betting heavily on a big bounce-back game for Ja’Marr Chase…Tee Higgins commanded a robust 26% target share against the Browns but air-balled, as almost none of his targets were catchable. I’m going right back to him as a WR2 versus Baltimore’s depleted backend.”
- “Irv Smith looks like a TD-or-bust steamer type at best.”
Seahawks at Lions, 1 p.m. EST
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