Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 10

Welcome to the Week 10 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which main-slate matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

Despite the nearly wall-to-wall low projected totals and absence of bye-resting Chiefs, Dolphins, Rams, and Eagles players, this week’s main slate might not be as soul-sucking as it seems at first glance. At least that’s true from a pace perspective.

Perhaps it’s due to the galactically underwhelming island games, or maybe just the Week 9 afterglow left by C.J. Stroud and Josh Dobbs — but there appear to be several mid-tier games with pace-pushing potential, on top of sexier matchups like 49ers-Jaguars and Texans-Bengals.

Those may be famous last words, but we’re going with four up-pace games and only two slogs this week — so let’s dive in.

As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool. The average play-clock seconds remaining are also based on neutral game script and are provided by our machine, Mike Leone.

Up In Pace

Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks

Eric Bieniemy’s Commanders offense may not be on the level of Andy Reid’s Chiefs, but their games are far more fruitful for fantasy. Washington leads the league in situation-neutral pass rate, both for the season (68%) and during the last month (69%). They are throwing at a higher clip while games remain close than even the Chiefs did during last year’s first-place finish (67%). Washington’s defense is also up to the sixth-highest opponent pass rate during the last month after being thrown on at the 16th-highest rate during the first five weeks. Considering the defense is 13th in rush EPA allowed, and 30th in dropback EPA, the pass-funnel effect makes sense. Without their since-traded bookend edge rushers, there’s even less preventing opponents from firing away — as evidenced by the Patriots hiking their situation-neutral pass rate from 53% (25th) to 66% in Week 9 (seventh). They are not deliberately playing fast, with the 23rd-quickest pace and 24th-most play-clock seconds — but constant throwing causes Commanders contests to produce the fifth-most combined snaps and fifth-most total points.

The Seahawks ran into a buzzsaw on Sunday and dribbled out a week-low 47 plays in the process. Not only was Seattle unable to stay on the field (1 for 12 on third down; seven drives of three or fewer snaps), their defense couldn’t get off of it, while the Seahawks were doubled up in time of possession. Seattle is now last in per-game snaps differential by a wide margin (-12.4). Fortunately, Washington is far from Baltimore in terms of EPA allowed (28th versus second), coverage grade (15th versus first) and, perhaps most importantly, pass rush. Geno Smith was pressured on 47% of his Week 9 dropbacks (fourth), while the Commanders heated up Mac Jones on 22% of his (25th). The Seahawks still played fast, with the sixth-fastest pace of the week, and they rank fifth on the season. As 6-point favorites, they should dictate the game’s tempo — and it doesn’t take much for either the Seattle or Washington offenses to ignite in the proper setting. Seahawks games have been more muted over the last month than during the opening five weeks (fourth in combined snaps, seventh in total points), but there’s a strong chance we get a rebound on Sunday.

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers

Lions games have cooled off after a hot first month. They averaged a whopping 131.3 combined plays and 54.3 total points through four weeks, when facing the Ravens, Seahawks, Panthers, and Chiefs. After that, Detroit’s matchups against the Packers, Raiders, Falcons, and Bucs produced 125.3 plays and 36.5 points — which would rank 21st and 30th on the full season, respectively. The Lions are allowing explosive plays at the sixth-highest rate (11.6%), and more often over the last month (14.3%) despite facing weaker offenses. Detroit’s defense is not the sieve it once was, and it’d be wrong to call it a paper tiger — because it’s a paper lion. The offense, on the other hand, is eighth in points per game — tied with the Chargers — and sixth in yards per play. While it doesn’t operate at a fast pace, Detroit’s offense averages the 14th-most play-clock seconds and has thrown at the 11th-highest rate during the past month (60%).

The Lions can be sped up, and the Chargers tend to elevate the tempo of their games. Los Angeles is top 12 in situation-neutral pace and ranks seventh in average play-clock seconds remaining. They have been passing less during the past four weeks (58%; 18th) than they had been prior (61%; 11th). Yet, facing a Lions defense grading eighth in run stopping, 17th in coverage, and 19th in pass rush — while facing the fifth-highest opponent pass rate (62%) — should push the Chargers back toward the air and help quicken the game. Los Angeles’ contests are also sped up by their total explosive play rate (10.7%; 10th), and Chargers opponents passing at the sixth-highest rate on the season (62%). Even with David Montgomery set to return for the Lions, both offenses are fairly condensed in terms of viable fantasy options. With likely elevated play volume, targeting several of them for fantasy should be well supported from an opportunity angle.

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals