Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 11

Welcome to the Week 11 edition of Snaps & Pace — winner of the 2024 FSWA Best Football Series — where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

Week 10 was unremarkable from a pace perspective. It was moderately voluminous, at 123.9 combined plays per game versus the current 122.4 average, and produced 46.1 total points versus the league’s 46.6-point average. Considering the weekend was absent defenses from Cincinnati, Dallas, and Tennessee — and was bookended by dueling 10-7 snoozers — we probably got off lucky.

We are on to Week 11, which ominously opens with a Jets game, pauses for a Euro breakfast with the Commies, and is closed out by the Raiders. Bravo, schedule-making AI. Of course, there is plenty of pace and points packed inside the slate, so let’s dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

While we don’t often recommend matchups involving defenses ranked first and third in points per play allowed, it is hard to ignore the Game of the Year… of the week. Tied atop the NFC West and winners of four straight, the Seahawks (+15.5) and Rams (+20.0) lead the league in per-game point differential during that stretch. They say good offense beats good defense, and who are we to argue? On a per-play basis, the Seahawks rank first in points and second in yards — and their games have not lacked for play volume despite a run-heavy lean. Seattle has the third-lowest PROE (-8%) but produces contests with the 13th-most combined snaps. We can thank a fast-moving, explosive Seahawks offense for that. It ranks fourth in neutral pace over expected and features the fourth-highest rate of 15+ yard plays (12.8%). The oddly exciting thing is that Seattle hasn’t run many plays yet themselves, ranking 28th in overtime-adjusted snaps per game. No one in the league has been more efficient than Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so a spike in play volume could theoretically blow the top off an already cathedral-high ceiling.

While Smith-Njigba’s 4.6 yards per route run is truly inconceivable, Puka Nacua’s 3.4 mark comfortably falls in the unbelievable bucket. The Rams also feature an MVP candidate quarterback who’s third in success rate, second in average Air Yards, and first in touchdown passes by a distance. Matthew Stafford leads the league in PFF’s big-time throws, and his Rams are passing at the second-highest clip during neutral situations, both on the season (65%) and during the last month (69%). Along with the third-highest PROE (+5%) and fifth-fastest neutral pace over expected, it’s propelled Rams games to third in combined play volume. We can be confident that Los Angeles skews to the air again on Sunday, as no defense ranks better in rushing EPA per play than the Seahawks — who have faced the seventh-highest opponent PROE. On top of otherworldly efficiency, it helps that both offenses distribute touches in a reasonably condensed manner — aside from Sean McVay’s tight end fetish, of course. With a tight spread (LAR -3) indicating the possibility of some juicy late-game back-and-forth action, the upside is too great to let standout defenses warn us off this gem.