Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 12

Welcome to the Week 12 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

Week 11 delivered a welcome rebound off a lower-volume and meaningfully lower-scoring Week 10. Now we get one of the more unique main slates of the season. There are six teams on bye, only a small handful of decent totals, and a gaggle of significant point spreads on the main slate — including five favorites of at least a touchdown. And then there’s the expectation for kneecapped play volume.

Of the teams whose games rank in the top 10 for most combined offensive snaps, seven are off the main slate or on bye. Half of the top 10 total-points teams are also missing. Hopefully we drank greedily from the Week 11 points oasis, because we are likely to be served a dry week. There are still a few paths to play volume, so let’s dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | Just Close Your Eyes | Slow-Paced Slogs | Onslaughters Beware | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts

The chances this game turns into a back-and-forth affair rest on a volatile Anthony Richardson turning in back-to-back strong performances after reclaiming his job on Sunday. The Lions have produced several lopsided results of late and are touchdown-plus road favorites here. Their 52-6 Jaguars curb-stomping allowed everyone to get fed for fantasy, as Detroit piled up 76 offensive snaps. With the Colts ranking 30th in per-game snaps differential (-7.8), and even worse in Richardson’s starts, we should at least be able to bank on the Lions again being flush with play volume. Detroit also moved quickly on Sunday, finishing second in Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE) on the week — and now sit ninth over the last month. Generating the second-highest explosive play rate (13.5%) and allowing them at the 10th-highest clip (11.4%), Lions games tend to speed up suddenly.

Explosive plays are not an issue for the Richardson-led Colts, who rank fifth in 15+ yard gains (12%). They tacked on nine more in Week 11. Not operating at the breakneck pace of last season, and mostly having shelved their no-huddle package, Indianapolis still ranks eighth in POE over the past month. Colts games are sixth in combined snaps on the season, so despite Indianapolis’ muted tempo relative to preseason expectations, overall play volume should not be lacking in this matchup. The Colts have leaned toward the run in Richardson’s starts — they ranked last in neutral pass rate in Week 11 against the Jets — but the Lions should tempt more throwing. Detroit’s defense faces the third-highest neutral pass rate, and during the past month, Indianapolis’ opponents have thrown at the fourth-highest clip while games are close. We’ll need the Colts to keep this matchup close for it to truly pop from a play-volume angle, but either way, it shapes up as one of the slate’s better environments.