Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 14

Welcome to the Week 14 edition of Snaps & Pace — winner of the 2024 FSWA Best Football Series — where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

Thanksgiving served up piles of points and roughly as many plays as projected, while Sunday’s Sloth Slate did not disappoint by disappointing exactly as expected. With identical 42.9-point averages in each of the last two weeks, the stretch-run matchups are slowing in the scoring department. There was only one week with fewer points per game this season.

The fantasy playoffs are starting, the bye weeks are ending, and there is much to discuss… let’s dive right in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | Could Be Faster | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

The Rams got bit by turnover variance and a severe lack of play volume during an upset by the schizophrenic Panthers on Sunday. Los Angeles ran only 51 plays, muting what was a chunky 7.4 yards-per-play average. Snap volume has not typically been an issue in Rams games — which rank seventh in combined plays — as Los Angeles operates at the seventh-fastest neutral pace over expected. Yet, they dialed back the tempo in Week 13, and that might be viewed as a mistake, given the game yielded the third-fewest combined snaps of the week and surely ended too quickly for Sean McVay’s taste. The Rams continued their lean on the pass, albeit not as aggressively as before Sunday. Their neutral pass rate was relatively elevated (58%; 14th) but down from their seasonal mark, which ranks second highest (63%). Against a Cardinals defense that surrenders the third-worst opponent dropback success rate, pressures quarterbacks at the eighth-lowest clip, and faces a top-10 neutral pass rate (58%), we should expect a busy Matthew Stafford moving with more pep in his step.

Speaking of busy aerial attacks, the Cardinals rank first in neutral pass rate over the past month, by a mile (68% vs. 64% for the second-place Chiefs). Arizona topped everyone in Week 13 PROE with a +9% mark, as Jacoby Brissett turned in his fourth 300-yard passing day for the Cardinals in the last eight weeks (seven games) — something Kyler Murray has done four times in the last 166 weeks (39 games). No team plays games averaging more combined snaps than the Cardinals, and those contests rank first in total points over the last month (54.3). At some point, they won’t spend the majority of a game in catch-up mode or partake in wild end-game scripts that spike pass volume — but it has not happened yet. The Cardinals just had their lowest play count since Murray was starting, and Brissett still chucked it 40 times in Tampa. He does lead in pressured dropbacks since taking over, and the Rams do have the 11th-highest pressure rate — but for as long as they last, it would be crazy to abandon these voluminous late-afternoon fantasy rides.