Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 15

Welcome to the Week 15 edition of Snaps & Pace — winner of the 2024 FSWA Best Football Series — where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

It’s tree trimming and nut cutting time, folks. The holiday season greets fantasy playoff contenders and bids farewell to bye weeks. On the heels of an overblown weather slate that fueled the highest per-game scoring week of the season, some NFL teams start to plan vacations while others call grandpas they plan to start.

With eight main-slate matchups featuring totals under 44 points — some severely so — and three of at least 50, we know where eyeballs will fall. And it’s not on the Jets, one of five double-digit road dogs. They don’t make slates bigger than a 13-gamer, so let’s dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | More Fun Than It Looks | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

While we did not get our anticipated scoreboard fireworks on Thanksgiving night, the matchup was still stuffed with play volume. Bengals-Ravens delivered the most combined snaps (137) of any non-overtime game in Week 13, and if not for five Baltimore turnovers in a 32-14 loss, it could have also produced the most points. Lamar Jackson continued his uneven play this week, but with 43 yards and a score on seven rushes, he at least appears healthier. Of course, the Ravens’ offense looks sick. Since Jackson returned in Week 10, they are fifth worst in dropback EPA per play (-0.15), but at least they’re fighting through it. Against the Bengals, Baltimore’s offense posted its highest PROE since Jackson was injured and operated at their fastest neutral pace over expected of the season. There were plenty of near misses, and several more against the Steelers on Sunday. It is coming, and the Bengals’ fluffer defense remains the league’s best remedy for straightening out an offense.

Cincinnati ranks dead last in opponent success rate and EPA per play allowed. No one surrenders more yards or points on a per-play basis, and only squats are better for tight ends. The Bengals allowed the second-worst explosive play rate entering Week 14 (12.6%), when the Bills hung 11 more on them. Now they are last in that, too (13%). On offense, we know what we’re getting — and it’s mostly glorious. Cincinnati ranks first in neutral pass rate (63%), and Joe Burrow chucked it at a 67% clip in his first game back against a Ravens defense that is now fresh off of somehow reanimating the dried husk of Aaron Rodgers. Bengals games are fifth in combined snaps, and only Cowboys contests (59) produce more total points (55.9). It would be a mistake if watching a relatively disappointing meeting between the Bengals and Ravens through a tryptophan fog dampens our enthusiasm for the rematch. With a projected tight game script (BAL -2.5) and an elevated tempo, the sequel should outpace the original.