Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 17

Welcome to the Week 17 edition of Snaps & Pace — winner of the 2024 FSWA Best Football Series — where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

Week 16 delivered a trio of absolute bangers in primetime. Hopefully you enjoyed them because it’ll be a Christmas miracle if one out of three is competitive on Thursday. Thank Frosty for fantasy football because the old adage of “even a bad NFL day beats a good day crammed in with your family” is about to be put to the test.

We then have a nine-matchup main slate on Sunday, featuring a two-game late-afternoon window. The schedule-making AI is broken again. We also have holiday travel to embark on — so let’s dive right in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Christmas Slate | Up In Pace | Kidnap Todd Bowles | This Could Be Fun | Slow-Paced Slogs

Christmas Slate

In a tribute to kids whose parents got them a badass gift (like Lasertag) and forgot the damn batteries back when stores weren’t open on Christmas (not that I’m still scarred), the NFL presents A Blueball Christmas. Dangling pace demons from Dallas, Detroit, and Denver on the tree, while streaming them separately with three lumps of coal, is a tease only the Grinch could love. Or, of course, Ebenezer Goodell.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders

We do not yet know if Marcus Mariota’s various ailments will keep him from our Yuletide lives. Still, professional backup quarterback Josh Johnson — some would say THE professional backup quarterback — is not the end of the world compared to what will follow Christmas afternoon. At least he will have a no-huddle offense, Terry McLaurin, and the Cowboys’ defense on his side.

Washington’s huddle-skipping has not equated to voluminous game environments relative to last season. A higher run rate and less urgency to actually snap the ball after rushing to the line have Commanders games 24th in combined plays — although they have risen to eighth since a Week 12 bye. The good news is that Washington’s defense is a joke, ranking 26th in points and 31st in yards surrendered on a per-play basis.

The Dallas defense has better PR but is similarly suspect. Unable to sack Justin Herbert despite his gingerbread offensive line, the Cowboys are a pass funnel facing the fourth-highest opponent PROE and trailing only the Commanders for most yards per attempt allowed through the air. Dallas’ games lead the league in average total points (58.5) and are fifth in combined offensive plays. These teams posted 66 points back in Week 7, and especially if Mariota dons his red suit, it is not crazy to think this matchup outscores the next two combined.