Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 5

Welcome to the Week 5 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which main-slate matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

Week 4 did not serve up the most riveting spread of games, with a quarter of the league’s offenses looking entirely inept. The Bengals, Browns, Falcons, Giants, Panthers, Patriots, Saints, and Steelers wet themselves just about any time they touched the ball.

With scoring already down significantly from the NFL’s Week 2 barnburner, we took another step down this weekend — plus, we saw nearly 100 fewer offensive plays than in Week 3. Now the byes have begun, the international games continue, and the Week 5 main slate looks thinner than a Matt Canada playbook.

We’ll need to make lemonade out of some lemons when picking out Up In Pace games this week, so let’s dive in.

As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool. The average play-clock seconds remaining are also based on neutral game script and are provided by our machine, Mike Leone.

Up In Pace

Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings

On a less-than-ideal main slate, this matchup is a free square for tempo truthers even if there are a few holes under the surface. Chiefs games have not been chock full of plays and points, as is typical — and their Sunday night mess in the Meadowlands remains fresh in our minds. With a defense ranked fifth in EPA per play allowed, an offense sitting only 12th in points per snap, and a receiver rotation about as streamlined as their head coach, Kansas City’s contests have not been overly fruitful for fantasy through four weeks. Yet, they still operate at the eighth-fastest situation-neutral pace and are throwing at the fourth-highest rate while games are close on the season. The Chiefs just turned in only the 17th-highest pass rate of Week 4 (56%) — but facing the Vikings in their dome is a long way from the Jets in Jersey.

Minnesota was stuck in the Carolina mud on Sunday, producing a measly 44 plays despite earning a healthy six yards per snap. The problem was the Vikings, again, puked in scoring position with a pair of interceptions at the Panthers’ 5- and 21-yard lines. Producing so few plays despite allowing a defensive touchdown — which usually tilts snap volume toward the team that turns it over — is fairly shocking. While the Vikings leaned into the Panthers’ inviting run defense while uncharacteristically passing at only a 55% clip, the Chiefs will pull them back in the other direction. Kansas City faces the eighth-highest opponent pass rate (64%) and Minnesota throws at the second-highest clip on the season (67%). Vikings games average the eighth-most combined snaps and 13th-most total points. Minnesota ranks third in explosive play rate (11.9%), and Kansas City is sixth (11.2%). Despite the relatively slow start by the Chiefs, and Minnesota’s Week 4 blip, this matchup flaunts the week’s highest projected total for good reason.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams

If the Eagles’ rabid defensive front doesn’t eviscerate the Rams’ rickety pass blocking — and Matthew Stafford in the process — this game should provide plenty of pace. That’s a rather large “if” after we saw the fragile husk of Stafford gut out an overtime win in Indianapolis while getting his teeth kicked in. Philadelphia’s offense has finally shown signs of life over the last two games from a tempo angle. While they aren’t leading the league in situation-neutral pace like last season, they are moving faster than the opening two weeks — when Philly ranked 29th in pace (31.8 seconds per snap). Since then, they are the ninth-fastest offense (27.6 seconds). Despite the relatively ponderous start, Eagles games average the fourth-most combined snaps (130) and sixth-most total points (52) — with both marks higher than in 2022. Philadelphia is handing off more than last year, however, ranking 31st in situation-neutral pass rate (48%). That, too, has picked up the past two weeks (60%), and should continue on Sunday.