Welcome to the Week 9 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.
Even after eight full weeks, it still feels like we still have more questions than answers. There are plenty of unknowns on the Week 9 main slate, due in large part to four more byes, a couple of teams that are interesting from a pace perspective in action on Sunday night, and a mounting toll of team-altering injuries.
We touch on every main slate game below, except for Denver/Dallas and Minnesota/Baltimore. The Broncos play painfully slowly and are unlikely to push the Cowboys, who should be able to choke them (and the game clock) out mainly on the ground. Unless you forecast Denver keeping up with Dallas offensively, it is hard to find the extra play volume to make off-the-board fantasy plays viable.
Baltimore is throwing more, for them, but not enough to ignite a highly-voluminous affair. Aside from the few usual fantasy suspects on each offense — exactly three, in fact — it will be extremely tough to successfully pick from among the gaggle of ancillary options. Now, let’s jump into the good stuff.
As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool.
Up In Pace
Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles
The Chargers predictably faced heavy rushing volume in their matchup with the Patriots (39 attempts). Although they held up better than usual (3.9 yards per carry allowed), New England was able to possess the ball for over 35 minutes and run 17 more plays. The Chargers still produce the ninth-most overtime-adjusted plays per game, and their contests average the fourth-most combined snaps. Los Angeles’ games yield the seventh-most total points (49.9), with a league-high 60 per game during the last month. Justin Herbert is passing at the third-highest situation-neutral rate (65%). There is a better chance that the Eagles try to replicate the approach of the Chargers’ last two opponents, than there is of Philadelphia fully duplicating the success of Baltimore and New England.
While their game with the Lions remained within a touchdown (19 plays), the Eagles went extremely run-heavy. Their 68% situation-neutral run rate was easily the highest of Week 8, and contrasted starkly with Philadelphia’s to-date 39% rate. Like Los Angeles, Detroit’s run defense stinks and opponents hand off against them at a high rate (fifth highest). Fortunately, the Eagles still operated at a top-10 situation-neutral pace for the week, and are moving at the league’s fastest pace on the season. Their games average the ninth-most total points, but are down to 16th in combined snaps — primarily due to recent blowout game scripts and slower-paced opponents. While the Chargers will surely tempt another ground-based game plan from the Eagles, the speed at which Los Angeles operates during neutral game scripts will help juice the pace of the matchup — which projects to be a tight affair (LAC -3).
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals were held to their lowest number of plays of the season (55) on Thursday night, thanks to the face-meltingly slow Packers. The good news is Arizona operated at their fastest situation-neutral pace since Week 1. It helped the game produce healthy snap volume considering Green Bay’s plodding pace — although the lion’s share of those plays were run by the Packers. Looking to the Cardinals’ Week 5 game with the 49ers doesn’t inspire tremendous confidence in the rematch popping off offensively, as the teams combined for a measly 119 plays and 27 points. That was also Trey Lance‘s first professional start, and San Francisco’s offense has shown signs of shifting afterwards — including a 68% Week 8 situation-neutral pass rate (sixth highest).
Since Jimmy Garoppolo returned from injury in Week 7, the 49ers rank sixth in situation-neutral pace — including a Week 8 tempo that trailed only the Cardinals. During their one meeting last season in which Garoppolo played, these offenses combined for a whopping 139 plays. With George Kittle set to return, Brandon Aiyuk‘s role finally returning to last year’s level, and Deebo Samuel regularly flipping fields, San Francisco’s passing offense may quietly be on the verge of hitting its stride. This matchup carries a lowered offensive expectation than has been typical for Cardinals games over the last few seasons, as evidenced by a modest 46.5 point total. Yet, with Arizona only 2.5-point road favorites, it does pack the potential for the kind of back-and-forth, highly-paced affair we like to target in fantasy — which is particularly attractive at reduced DFS ownership.
UPDATE: With Kyler Murray missing his second straight practice due to an ankle injury, his status for Sunday is increasingly in doubt. We do expect the Cardinals to continue playing at an elevated pace in his absence – they had the seventh-fastest situation-neutral pace with Chris Streveler taking snaps last year – even if the game’s overall scoring ceiling is lowered with Colt McCoy behind center. DeAndre Hopkins also missed his second straight practice, and A.J. Green remains on the Covid list. If they sit out, Arizona’s ancillary options become more squarely in play since, in addition to less touch competition, they will still be buoyed by the Cardinals undaunted snaps pace.
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants
Now we’re really getting our hands dirty. This is purely a process pick because, as you’ll see below, there is no other Week 9 matchup pitting two offenses with relatively fast-paced leans against each other. Rested off a bye, the Raiders are operating at a top-10 situation-neutral pace over the last four weeks they’ve played. Since taking the trash out of the head coach’s office, Las Vegas is passing at a 67% situation-neutral clip — which would rank second only to the Bucs on the season. With PFF’s second-best-graded passer Derek Carr thriving, the Raiders have scored 33.5 points per game without Jon Gruden, while their contests average the 10th-most combined plays and eighth-most total points on the season.
Carr should be busy against a Giants defense sporting PFF’s 12th-worst-graded coverage and seventh-worst pass rush. New York has faced a top-10 opponent pass rate while games are close, and this matchup is projected to be tight (LVR -3). The Giants operated at a middling pace during the first four weeks (16th), but have cranked to sixth fastest since then. They lead the league in no-huddle rate, both overall (40%) and during neutral situations (44%). Of course, their offense is a rudderless booze cruise, steered by a high-strung coach who can’t even get along with his headset, a coordinator two months away from guiding tours of Jerry World, and a quarterback who’s again getting turned over more often than a porn star. Their games do average the third-most combined plays (129.6), with more coming over the last month (134.8; second) — so there should be plenty of play volume. What those snaps yield, exactly, is far less certain.
Slow-Paced Slogs
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
While the Patriots are well known to be a “game-plan offense,” that plan is increasingly tilting toward the ground. Over the first month, New England ranked second in situation-neutral pass rate (68%). Since then, they rank 31st (47%), and it has not been the result of one or two spiked run rates. The Patriots have kept it on the ground at the second-, second-, third-, and sixth-highest rates during their last four games despite playing a variety of defenses — two of which are thrown against at top-seven clips. They have operated at a bottom-10 situation-neutral pace during this four-week stretch, as their offensive line and defense have solidified — and a “bully ball” approach becomes increasingly viable.
The path of lesser resistance with the Panthers’ defense is on the ground, where they rank 19th in DVOA — versus sixth against the pass. Adding ex-Patriot Stephon Gilmore to the mix won’t make challenging Carolina’s coverage any more appealing for New England. The Panthers are also throwing less often, turning in the 21st-highest pass rate over the last month (54%) — including the third lowest of Week 8 (44%) — after they ranked 13th during the first four games (59%). A concussed Sam Darnold won’t help spike that rate, nor will his “extension of the running game” 4.7-yard Week 9 average depth of target. Carolina’s contests are averaging the fourth-fewest total points on the season (40.5), and although the Patriots are second only to the Buccaneers in points per game during the last month, you’d have to squint pretty hard to see this game producing a highly voluminous, up-pace result.
UPDATE: Darnold is yet to clear the concussion protocol and was “extremely limited” during a walkthrough practice. If P.J. Walker gets the start, it would not appreciably change the game’s pace and play-volume outlook. If anything, Walker’s presence would likely lead to an even more ground-based approach than we’ve seen from Panthers of late.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Since their wild Week 5 shootout with the Chargers, the Browns’ offense has gone in the tank. They are still a plodding unit, ranking 30th in situation-neutral pace. They keep it on the ground at the second-highest rate during close game scripts (49%), and not much has changed over the last four weeks (48%). Opponents run against them at the ninth-highest clip. As a result, their games average the ninth-fewest combined snaps — and with the way their beat-up passing game looks, expecting near-term change is about as likely as Odell Beckham’s dad showing up in Baker Mayfield’s next Progressive commercial. After averaging 28.3 points over their first five games, Cleveland is squeaking out only 13.7 per game since.
The Bengals are undoubtedly coming around, and have been for the better part of a month. After opening the season with the 21st-highest situation-neutral pass rate during the first four weeks (56%), Cincinnati has returned to the throw-happy ways of recent seasons. Their 70% situation-neutral pass rate over the past four weeks is the highest in the league. It has helped inject volume into games that were averaging the fewest combined plays during the opening month (116.3). That mark has climbed to 130.8 since then. The Bengals even played at a significantly faster pace for the first time on Sunday, ranking seventh on the week. Cincinnati’s upswing in approach was predictable, if not delayed longer than we’d have liked. The question is whether they are ready to ignite a play-volume-packed affair with the ponderously-paced Browns. Anything is possible with the Bengals’ highly-explosive offense, but the longer the game stays close (CIN -2.5), the less Cleveland will be inclined to match Cincinnati’s newly paced-up approach.
UPDATE: Beckham is being treated as toxic by the Browns, and appears to be getting the Deshaun Watson treatment. He almost certainly will not play on Sunday, and no matter what we think of his current level of effectiveness – this will does help matchup ascend to a back-and-forth, fantasy-friendly affair.
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
On the frustratingly-slow scale, the Packers’ offense slides in somewhere between The Irishman and grandma doing 40 in the left lane with her blinker on. While Green Bay will have all of their receivers back in Week 9, it is unlikely to alter their deliberate approach — especially with Aaron Rodgers set to miss the game. Green Bay turned in the sixth-slowest situation-neutral pace of Week 8 on Thursday night, and their seasonal rate actually sped up. They are unabashedly the league’s slowest offense, one year removed from ranking 31st. Packers games produce the fewest combined plays (120.1) and eighth-fewest total points (44.9). During the last four weeks, that per-game total-point average is down to 41. After a heavier dose of their running game than usual helped control an upset of the previously undefeated Cardinals, it would be shocking if the Packers did not reprise that approach with Jordan Love taking snaps against what’s arguably the league’s worst run defense.
The Chiefs have more going wrong than an inability to stop the run, but at least for this week, that is the leading candidate to sink their snap volume. After playing with a quick pace against the Giants — Kansas City was flying, even if they technically huddled every play — the Chiefs will again need to inject play volume into this matchup. Of course, the 77 snaps Kansas City produced against New York were largely filled with frustration, and they will likely need to do more with less in Week 9. The Chiefs have scored the eighth-fewest points per game over the last month — and during that stretch, their games averaged the ninth-fewest total points. There are clearly fantasy options in this matchup that we are unable to fade, particularly since the game has one of the main slate’s higher projected totals. The overall game environment, however, will have one offense actively trying to burn clock and mute play volume. The only real surprise is that side might be the better team.
Pace Notes
— Like most quality teams, the Bills have shown they sometimes need to be pushed to crank their tempo. While they rank fourth on the season in situation-neutral pace, there have been enough swings — at least partly attributable to opponent — to avoid blindly forecasting breakneck offensive speed in all scenarios. Like with the Cowboys and Cardinals, their sporadically dominant defense has been an unexpected governor on how fast the offense moves.
Before their blowout of the hopeless Texans was truly on, Buffalo registered only the 20th-fastest pace of Week 4. The following two weeks, during more competitive games with the Chiefs and Titans, the Bills deployed a top-12 situation-neutral pace and pass rate, while going no-huddle at the fourth-highest clip. Buffalo is bottom 10 in pace when holding second-half leads of at least a touchdown.
The good news is the Bills’ slower approach in advantaged scripts has not hampered their play volume. No team averages more overtime-adjusted plays per game (69.1). However, their contests have typically not been overly voluminous, ranking 12th in average combined snaps. Opponents produce the second-fewest plays per game (58.7), thanks in large part to Buffalo’s league-best DVOA defense. The Bills will eventually have game scripts that ignite both sides, but with the Jaguars and Jets on deck, we might not see one until Thanksgiving.
— The Dolphins were the Bills’ Week 8 opponent for a game that ultimately produced a disappointing fantasy environment. As frustrating as the result was, the matchup did yield an above-average 130 combined plays, and Miami had drives end on a missed field goal, a fumble, and a late-game interception. The Dolphins’ offense didn’t play well, but considering the opposing defense, they were not an abject disaster.
Miami’s games have been reasonably voluminous of late. Over the last month, they are a respectable 13th in average combined plays (129), and rank 11th in total points (50) even after only reaching 37 with the Bills on Sunday. The Dolphins are still operating at a top-10 situation-neutral pace, and are throwing at an elevated clip. While games are close, they rank fourth in pass rate for the season (65%) and fourth during the past month (66%).
Expecting Miami’s matchup with the touchdown-underdog Texans to ascend into a back-and-forth, voluminous affair seems far fetched. If Tyrod Taylor can return to an offense that has passed more over the last month (58%; 12th) than the first four weeks (53%; 26th), we might change our tune. Yet, while the temptation is to throw in the towel on a beat-up Dolphins offense with its clown-car blocking, their condensed touch distribution and a reasonably paced-up profile continues to deserve our attention.
UPDATE: Taylor indeed looks like he will play, which means this game is no longer about as exciting as a round of non-alcoholic beers with Jack Easterby. The Texans are still ninth-slowest in situation-neutral pace, and their games average the fifth-fewest combined snaps – but with a minimally competent quarterback, there’s at least a chance this matchup has some back-and-forth juice. If nothing else, it opens DFS run-back options for Dolphins stacks.
— While Calvin Ridley’s on-field production has been disappointing this season, the Falcons’ top wideout has had an accelerating effect on his team’s offense. With Ridley in the lineup during the first month, Atlanta ranked fourth in situation-neutral pace (26.7 seconds per snap) and 10th in pass rate (61%). When he briefly returned to the lineup in Week 7, they ranked eighth in pace (28.3) and first in pass rate (77%). During his two absences, they had a seconds-per-snap rate (30.0) that would rank bottom 10 on the season, and a situation-neutral pass rate (55.7%) that would rank 20th. Their 64.2% pass rate in games with Ridley would rank sixth. First and foremost, hopefully Ridley receives the necessary help and takes the time he needs off the field. Far less important are his contributions to a circling-the-drain Falcons team that we cannot trust to push the pace without him.
Atlanta’s Week 9 trip to the Superdome brings similar pace-based questions on the other side of the field. Losing Jameis Winston, with whom New Orleans was uncharacteristically playing fast and passing more, will likely reverse the recent paced-up approach — particularly if teacher’s pet Taysom Hill is back under center. The Saints shockingly lead the league in situation-neutral pace during the last month, after operating at the fifth-slowest pace over the first four weeks. They are 13th in pass rate during that stretch, after ranking dead last before it. Like last week’s game with the Buccaneers, the Saints’ matchup with the Falcons would have fit well in the Up In Pace section — but without Winston and Ridley, there is too much unknown to take that leap.
— The Titans are another offense that has lost a key piece, although the effect potentially takes their pace in a positive direction. Despite obligatory quotes to the contrary, it is hard to see Tennessee maintaining their nearly-50% situation-neutral run rate without Derrick Henry. More throwing is typically bullish for play volume, and that will especially be the case if the Titans can maintain reasonable offensive efficiency. Additionally, if they fully return to the elevated situation-neutral pace of last season, we could really be cooking with gas. There already were signs of it happening.
Over the first month, the Titans operated at the seventh-slowest pace (31.6 seconds per snap). That was a notable departure from last season, when they were seventh quickest (28.5). During the last four weeks, however, Tennessee’s seconds-per-snap rate was 27.8 in neutral situations. That is more in line with last year’s approach, and it coincided with a small step forward in pass rate. Now that we could be staring at a larger leap in pass rate with third-down back Jeremy McNichols and the dried husk of Adrian Peterson atop their depth chart, a continued upswing in pace would return the Titans to the snap-catalyzing offense of last season — when their games averaged the seventh-most combined plays (131.7). There could be no better test case than Sunday night’s matchup with a Rams offense featuring the third-highest no-huddle rate and seventh-quickest situation-neutral pace — as well as the seventh-fastest opponent pace.
