Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 4

 

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 4. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

 

Week 4 Bye Week: None

 

DL Rankings – Week 4

1. Cowboys
2. 49ers
3. Eagles
4. Browns
5. Steelers – DT Cameron Heyward is on short-term injured reserve.
6. Titans
7. Jets
8. Chiefs
9. Commanders
10. Packers
11. Giants
12. Patriots
13. Panthers
14. Chargers
15. Colts
16. Bills
17. Falcons
18. Dolphins
19. Raiders
20. Saints
21. Lions
22. Bengals
23. Rams
24. Bucs
25. Jaguars
26. Broncos
27. Cardinals
28. Vikings – DE Marcus Davenport has played four snaps this season due to an ankle injury. He returned to practice on Thursday in a limited fashion.
29. Texans
30. Seahawks
31. Ravens
32. Bears

 

OL Rankings – Week 4

1. Eagles
2. Lions
3. Chargers
4. Cowboys – LT Tyron Smith was in the ‘rehab group’ with a knee injury in Thursday’s practice after missing last week’s game. RG Zack Martin and C Tyler Biadasz both returned to practice Thursday in a limited fashion after missing last week’s game with injuries.
5. Chiefs
6. Browns – RT Jack Conklin is out for the year with a torn ACL.
7. 49ers
8. Colts
9. Packers – LT David Bakhtiari and LG Elgton Jenkins both missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
10. Ravens – LT Ronnie Stanley and C Tyler Linderbaum returned to practice in a limited fashion on Wednesday after missing the last two games with injuries.
11. Patriots – RT Riley Reiff is on short-term injured reserve.
12. Saints – RG Cesar Ruiz missed practice on Thursday after missing last week’s game with a concussion.
13. Dolphins
14. Vikings – C Garrett Bradbury practiced Wednesday in a limited fashion after missing the last two games with a back injury.
15. Broncos
16. Bills
17. Bucs
18. Falcons
19. Bengals
20. Giants – LT Andrew Thomas is slated to return this week after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury and LG Ben Bredeson should also return after missing last week with a concussion.
21. Jaguars – LT Cam Robinson is suspended for the first four games of the season.
22. Jets
23. Cardinals
24. Texans – RT Tytus Howard and C Juice Scruggs are on short-term injured reserve. LG Kenyon Green is on season-ending injured reserve. LT Laremy Tunsil missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday after sitting out last week’s game with a knee injury. His backup, Josh Jones, also missed practice both days with a hand injury.
25. Panthers – RG Austin Corbett is on short-term injured reserve.
26. Raiders
27. Rams
28. Seahawks – RT Abraham Lucas was placed on short-term injured reserve and LT Charles Cross is likely out this week with a toe injury. 41-year-old and likely future Hall of Fame LT Jason Peters was signed to start at a tackle spot.
29. Commanders
30. Bears – LG Teven Jenkins is on short-term injured reserve. LT Braxton Jones was placed on short-term injured reserve after injuring his neck in Week 2.
31. Steelers
32. Titans – RT Nicolas Petit-Frere is suspended for the first six games of the season. LG Peter Skoronski missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday after sitting out last week due to an appendectomy procedure.

 

Biggest Week 4 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Eagles DL (3rd) > Commanders OL (29th)
2. 49ers DL (2nd) > Cardinals OL (23rd)
3. Steelers DL (5th) > Texans OL (24th)
4. Chiefs DL (8th) > Jets OL (22nd)
5. Giants DL (11th) > Seahawks OL (28th)

 

Biggest Week 4 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Browns OL (6th) > Ravens DL (31st)

 

DL > OL

 

1.   Eagles DL > Commanders OL

Key matchups: Edge rushers Josh Sweat & Haason Reddick vs. OTs Charles Leno & Andrew Wylie, DT Jalen Carter vs. LG Saahdiq Charles

Notes: The Eagles’ DL ranks 14th in pass-rush win rate, second in pressure percentage, and fourth in QB hurry percentage. The Commanders’ OL ranks 16th in pass-block win rate, 32nd in sacks per pass attempt given up, and 20th in pressure percentage given up.

The Eagles’ defensive front has controlled games this season despite not getting much production from star rusher Haason Reddick thanks to Josh Sweat holding down the opposite side and outstanding disruption on the interior from Jalen Carter, Fletcher Cox, and Jordan Davis. Washington QB Sam Howell has shown promise as a passer in his first year as a full-time starter, but he has a glaringly bad habit of holding the ball too long that allows rushers to get home far too often. Combined with shaky pass protection across the line in isolated matchups against top-tier competition (which the Eagles have), the recipe is there for a barrage of pressures, hits, and/or sacks by Philly’s front.

 

2.  49ers DL > Cardinals OL