Dynasty Outlook
March 25
We moved Benson down to rookie RB3 given the injury history and lack of displayed workhorse ability. The ceiling here feels capped compared to a couple of other RBs in this class.
March 20
Trey Benson is our RB1 for rookie drafts and checks in as RB18 in our overall dynasty ranks. His placement in the rankings sounds rather high, but it is important to note that this RB class is not strong overall. Despite being our top back, Benson is just the 16th overall rookie in SF/TE premium formats. We don’t anticipate Benson being a workhorse given his meager collegiate volume, but he should be a strong committee option capable of playing on all three downs. He is also big enough to earn touches around the goal line. Ultimately, where he lands will have a lot to say about his value post-draft. The RBs in this class are a bit of a risky proposition until we get more information.
Profile Summary
Benson overcame a horrible injury to put together a quality college career, and his tested athleticism is strong enough to earn Day 2 consideration in the NFL Draft. His pass-catching and blocking abilities will give Benson the chance to earn reps on all three downs even if he isn’t a team’s primary back.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 21.5
Experience — 4 years
Height — 72.25 inches
Weight — 216 pounds
Hand — 9.25 inches
Arm — 31.5 inches
Forty — 4.39 seconds
Vert — 33.5 inches
Broad — 122 inches
By the Numbers
Benson had about as rough a start to a college career as one could have. As a true freshman, he tore his ACL, MCL, both his lateral and medial meniscus, and his hamstring. As a result, he barely played while at Oregon, transferring to Florida State after the 2021 season.
At Florida State, Benson was not a workhorse. He split work with Treshaun Ward and Lawrance Toafili, who are not NFL players, but he was highly efficient. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry and 11.2 yards per reception as a Seminole.
Benson also has an intriguing size and speed profile. He ran a 4.39 forty at 216 pounds. This is the list of Day 2 RBs since 2005 who ran a 4.4 or better at between 210 and 220 pounds:
Breece Hall
DeMarco Murray
Ben Tate
Jerious Norwood
J.J. Arrington
Two stars and three complementary backs. None of these backs returned absolutely zero fantasy value, making it likely fantasy gamers see some scoring from Benson.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein believes that Benson can contribute on all three downs:
Big back who might need to table his desires to be an elusive runner and adopt a more physical, decisive approach as a pro. Benson had just two seasons of collegiate wear and tear, but he only hit the 20-carry mark in one game. He runs with good knee-bend, agility, and contact balance but takes too long to process the front and hit holes between the tackles. He has creative athleticism but lacks creative vision, so he would be wise to keep more runs on track and finish with consistent authority rather than searching for greener grass. Benson has some talent as a pass catcher and enough protection ability to warrant a role as a complementary three-down option.
Maurice Jones-Drew rated Benson as his top overall RB:
A two-time second-team All-ACC selection, Benson has the potential to be a reliable three-down back in the league. He runs the gap scheme very well, has good patience and vision, and possesses great speed, as he posted the third-fastest 40-yard dash (4.39 seconds) among running backs at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine. As a receiver, he does well when having to adjust to the ball and is adequate in pass protection. He’s a nice player with an ideal body type who can carve out a solid career in the right system.
Dane Brugler noted that Benson models his game after an all-time great:
Benson, who models his game after Adrian Peterson, runs with enough plant-and-go explosiveness and run strength that he rarely goes down on initial contact — and he forces some missed tackles that defy gravity.
Because the Florida State offense was committed to a package for backup RB Lawrance Toafili, Benson averaged only 13.5 offensive touches per game in 2023, but he showed key improvements as both a pass catcher and blocker.
Draft Projection
Benson is not rated inside of the top 50 prospects on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Benson 67th overall. Neither Jeremiah nor Brugler have Benson in their first-round mocks, as there is not expected to be a RB selected on Day 1. Jordan Reid has Benson going 56th overall in his two-round mock. We expect Benson to come off the board in the late second or early third round.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
This isn’t a terrible comp set, but it features only two long-term producers in Frank Gore and Josh Jacobs. The peak seasons for many other backs on the list are impressive: Doug Martin (RB2 2012, RB11 2015), Devonta Freeman (RB1 2015, RB7 2016), Kenyan Drake (RB14 2020), Ryan Torain (RB19 2010), and Dameon Pierce (RB21 2022) all returned useful fantasy value for spurts of their careers, but they were unable to produce year in and year out for a significant stretch. However, given the draft capital Benson is expected to have, that shouldn’t be terribly surprising.
With only three true zeroes on this list, Benson seems to clearly be competent, and we should expect him to find a role with whichever NFL team drafts him. And pulling in a couple of first-round players despite projected mid-Day 2 draft capital is encouraging for his talent level.
