Dynasty Outlook
March 12
Troy Franklin is our WR5 for rookie drafts and checks in as WR30 in our overall dynasty ranks. There is a bit of outlier-hunting here with Franklin given his rare tall but thin build, but there are some signs that he will withstand the test. Most notably, the scouts and stats agree on a Chris Olave comp, which would be incredibly bullish. Franklin becoming a player who is more valuable in real life than fantasy would not be surprising, but the overall strength and depth of the 2024 class means his cost is going to be lower in rookie drafts than it would be in most years. That makes the gamble more appetizing.
March 13
Franklin weighed in at 183 pounds at the Oregon pro day after supposedly having the flu at the Combine. This is a huge upgrade to his range of outcomes if it is indeed his actual playing weight. It also inspires some hope that he can add more weight at the NFL level if needed.
Profile Summary
Franklin will be an instant-impact player at the next level due to his functional speed and ability to be a deep threat. He will impact defenses right away even if he is not an immediate target hog. Of course, the team drafting him will hope to develop Franklin further than that. He is one of what has been a continuing trend of smaller WRs to make it to the NFL. As the rules have shifted, it has allowed some more slender builds more access to their routes. Expect Franklin to be a top-50 pick.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 20.9
Experience — 3 years
Height — 73.875 inches
Weight — 176 pounds
Hand — 8.63 inches
Arm — 31.88 inches
Forty — 4.41 seconds
Vert — 39 inches
Broad — 124 inches
Cone — 6.9 seconds
Shuttle — 4.31 seconds
By the Numbers
Franklin was a highly-touted high school prospect, but he was not able to get off to a fast start at Oregon. Fourth-year WR Devon Williams and fifth-year Johnny Johnson were both ahead of him in the pecking order. Both players were NFL Combine invitees, but they have not appeared in NFL games. Given that COVID shortened the 2020 season for the Ducks, it is possible seniors were given extra priority in 2021.
In 2022, Franklin saw a massive uptick in production, which coincided with the arrival of Bo Nix. Though he was a little short of a breakout, Franklin was the leading receiver, accounting for 24% of Oregon’s receiving yards and 30% of their receiving touchdowns. He broke out officially as a senior while setting Oregon school records in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and 100-yard receiving games. His 81 receptions were good for second all-time. It was truly a prolific year.
The most unique part of Franklin’s profile is how slender he is. There have not been many successful WRs to be at least six feet tall and at most 185 pounds. Only Will Fuller and Marvin Harrison have reached 15 PPR points per game in a season with those height and weight requirements. If we drop the scoring threshold to 12.5 PPR points, we get eight players:
Will Fuller
Marvin Harrison
DeVonta Smith
Robbie Chosen
Brian Hartline
Nate Washington
Adrian Arrington
Mario Manningham
This is not a terribly encouraging list, especially since almost all of these WRs are at least 180 pounds. The exception of course is the player who gives us the most encouragement. Smith has been an excellent fantasy asset despite coming in at 6-foot-1 and 170 pounds. He has at least 900 yards in each of his three seasons. Smith gives us hope that there is more room for slender WRs in the modern NFL, but it still feels like a tough needle to thread.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compared Franklin to Chris Olave:
The puzzle pieces are fairly easy to put together when assessing who Franklin is and who he could be in the NFL. He’s a tall, linear receiver with good speed. He’s sudden enough to beat press but lacks the play strength to win combat catches and fight for operating space underneath. He has an innate talent for avoiding traffic and maintaining his distance from pursuit after the catch on crossing routes on all three levels. Franklin might not get WR1 target volume, but he should be productive with a high yards-per-catch average and the ability to open things up underneath for his teammates. Franklin could become a coveted complementary piece for an established WR1 or a productive vertical target for a team looking for instant help in the passing game.
Daniel Jeremiah believes Franklin will make explosive plays at the next level:
Franklin is a tall, lanky wideout with big-time speed. He lines up outside and in the slot. A very smooth runner, he almost floats over the turf. He can destroy coverage cushions very quickly. Franklin understands how to set up defenders at the top of the route, and he is very efficient at the break point. He caught a lot of fades and go balls in the system at Oregon. He can really track and high-point the ball, but he does have some contact drops in traffic. He also struggles to corral balls on his back hip when he’s running away on crossers. Franklin piles up yards after the catch because of his pure speed. Overall, he needs to be more consistent with his hands, but he’s shown the ability to provide plenty of explosive plays for his offense.
Dane Brugler makes it three out of three scouts mentioning Franklin’s big-play ability:
Franklin quickly builds his speed vertically to stack man corners versus free releases, and the threat of his deep skills can loosen mid-field coverage (eight catches of 40+ yards in 2023).
Though he tracks the ball well in flight, his finishing focus is inconsistent, especially through contact against physical defensive backs — he might struggle early on when facing NFL press coverage.
But Franklin is a big-play weapon (before and after the catch) because of his gliding acceleration.
Draft Projection
Franklin has an expected draft position of 39.3 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Franklin 38th overall. Jeremiah’s most recent mock draft has Franklin going 32nd overall, while Brugler’s has him outside of the first round. Franklin is a fringe Day 1 pick who should come off the board by the midway point of Round 2.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
It is incredibly reassuring to see Olave on the statistical comp list after Zierlein comped them based on the film. Fuller also appears after showing up in our more back-of-the-napkin statistical comps.
We see six mid-first-round picks: Fuller, Olave, Jaylen Waddle, Jahan Dotson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jameson Williams. This inspires some confidence with regard to Franklin’s draft position. Seven of these WRs have been drafted since 2021, which speaks to Franklin’s unique size profile and how that may be more common in the modern NFL.
Because so many of these comps are recent, there is a bit of “wait and see” here. Waddle and Olave are already hits (to go along with Fuller), but there is certainly some chance Franklin is just a situational deep threat like we’ve seen from Jalin Hyatt and Williams so far.
