Value Report: World Wide Technology Championship

The fall swing can really make your head spin. The contest sizes are smaller, ownership is harder to predict, and the strength of the fields really push the envelope on how easy it is to IKB onto plays you like. Doug Ghim high-priced and chalky? Gut always leans a fade. Andrew Novak chalky on a course that you need to make putts? Again, that one felt easy to go away from. Yet both were in our top three in Value, with Kristoffer Ventura slightly behind them, and it could’ve been an absolute smash of a week if you played things close to our projections. I had done quite a good job of that for most of the year, and even pushed for that more strongly in the fall swing, as the field likes to play things even wilder it seems, yet I was too excited with the way I like to approach the Mexico Open. A costly lesson, but really cool to see former ETR podcast guest and Ball Knower Andrew Novak get his first solo PGA Tour win!

A flat-out embarrassing effort for the Value Report at one of my favorite events. I was confident in how to attack the course given its history and perhaps didn’t give enough credit to the redesign for how it could impact the play. A very similar story happened at the comparable Rocket Mortgage Classic this past year as well, and the field looks like they aren’t reacting all that much to the design updates. I’ll keep that in the notes for the future when we have these spots on very one-sided course fits to give us contrarian angles. No need to individually look through the five; even with Sudarshan Yellamaraju making the cut, none of them came remotely close to paying off last week. Time to right the ship and close the year strong, starting with the World Wide Technology Championship this week!

Karl Vilips, $7,300 – After winning in just his third start on the PGA Tour, Karl Vilips looked to be the best rookie of his class in 2025. He was a stud at Stanford, picked up the Sun Day Red sponsorship from Tiger Woods, and dominated the Korn Ferry Tour out of the gate. So once he won the Puerto Rico Open, it felt like it should be smooth sailing for the Australian. But here we are a year and a half later with just one top 10, coming in the partner-event Zurich Classic, sporting a missed-cut rate near 50%. I’m hard-pressed, though, to think that at his age and talent, the plug needs to be pulled, and with a sign of life last week in Mexico, I like the setup for him here. His best work is typically done through power, and yes, it’s taken away here, but with how well he’s hitting his irons, keeping the ball in play and relying on approach shots fits his current form. The coastal win at the PRO is a nod in the direction of Vilips taking on El Cardonal well in his first try here.