In what has become an unfortunate pattern of the 2023 NFL season, we witnessed another round of devastating injuries in Week 13 to players such as Tank Dell, Rhamondre Stevenson, Christian Watson, and Derrick Henry. With just one week left in the fantasy regular season for most leagues, we must respond to these injuries on the waiver wire. This week’s Waiver Wire Analysis will prepare you to do just that. Let’s dive in.
As a reminder, here are explanations for each section of the article. Read the descriptions below to determine whether “Home-League Waiver Targets” or “Deeper-League Targets” is more relevant for your particular league:
- Home-League Waiver Targets: This section focuses on the typical “home league” with friends, family members, and co-workers. These leagues typically include starting lineups of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs, 1 TE, 1-2 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D/ST, and 5-7 BENCH spots. I will use ESPN & Yahoo rostership percentages to gauge which players are available in a typical league. To qualify as a waiver target, the player must be rostered in <40% of leagues on either Yahoo or ESPN.
- Deeper-League Targets: This section will be focused on deeper leagues, which typically have additional starting lineup slots and deeper benches compared to the typical home league. Drafters who play in tournament contests on FFPC, NFFC, or similar should find this section helpful. To qualify as a deeper-league target, the player must be rostered in <50% of FFPC Main Event leagues.
Additionally, FAAB recommended bid percentages are given. These should generally be interpreted as a % of your original FAAB budget, not your current FAAB budget, though obviously keep in mind team- and league-specific considerations when making your bids.
For each list, I will rank the players in order based on how I would prioritize adding them to your teams. I will also include a “Drop List” of commonly rostered players that I would be comfortable parting ways with in order to add these targets to your team.
Top 10 Home-League Waiver Targets
Ezekiel Elliott
Rostership: 40% Yahoo, 34% ESPN
FAAB Recommendation: 20-40%
With New England’s starting RB Rhamondre Stevenson potentially out multiple games after suffering an ankle injury Sunday, former Cowboys star Ezekiel Elliott is slated to play a major role in the Patriots’ sputtering offense. On the season, Elliott and Stevenson are the only two RBs on the roster to play an offensive snap, although WR/RB hybrid Ty Montgomery has played sparingly. That pattern continued in Week 13, where Elliott played 44 snaps compared to just three for Montgomery. Over the next several weeks, I would project a near-workhorse role for Zeke, with something close to ~75% of the snaps and RB opportunities (carries and targets).
While a high-volume role for Zeke is essentially locked in, two major concerns should dampen fantasy managers’ expectations for Elliott: offensive environment and individual talent. On the season, the Patriots rank dead last in offensive scoring, and they have failed to eclipse seven points in each of their last three games. For Zeke’s talent profile, the advanced statistics highlight a player who can consistently gain positive yardage but has no breakaway ability. Of 47 RBs with >65 carries, Zeke is ranked 34th in PFF rush grade, 40th in rush yards over expected per attempt, and 46th in breakaway run rate, but he performs well in success rate (eighth).
In conclusion, Zeke is very likely to be a touch sponge on a terrible Patriots team. While he lacks the talent and situational upside to crack into the top 12 at the position, his workhorse volume should keep him in the low-end RB2 range. While it’s not sexy, volume alone makes Zeke the top waiver wire option at RB for Week 14.
Noah Brown
Rostership: 40% Yahoo, 34% ESPN
FAAB Recommendation: 20-40%
The NFL’s weekly gut-wrenching injuries continued in Week 13, with Texans star rookie Tank Dell suffering a fractured fibula that will end his season. That leaves sixth-year veteran Noah Brown as the most likely candidate to step into the WR2 role behind Nico Collins in Houston. While Robert Woods and John Metchie will also mix in, I prefer Brown in Fantasyland for three reasons. First, Brown has run more routes than Woods and Metchie in every game he’s played this year. Second, Brown has been far more efficient on a per-route basis, averaging an impressive 2.4 yards per route run on the season (Metchie at 1.5; Woods at 1.1). Finally, Brown has a proven track record of producing massive fantasy weeks, with two games over 25 PPR points in Weeks 9 and 10 this season.
With Texans QB C.J. Stroud leading the NFL in passing yards, Dell’s injury provides a massive opportunity for Brown to produce spike weeks down the stretch. Although I’m somewhat skeptical of Brown’s talent, his situation makes him the top waiver add at WR. I project Brown to offer boom-bust WR3 production through the end of the season, with upside to provide week-winning scores.
Isaiah Likely
Rostership: 35% Yahoo, 24% ESPN
FAAB Recommendation: 20-40%
With the Ravens on bye in Week 13, Isaiah Likely was surprisingly dropped in a lot of leagues. I think that was a mistake. While the box-score results in Week 12 were muted (four catches for 40 yards), Likely’s underlying usage was very promising. On a route participation basis, he inherited the Mark Andrews role, running a route on 83% of dropbacks. That usage, combined with his track record of producing big games in 2022, makes Likely a low-end TE1 for the rest of the fantasy season. Barring an injury to Travis Kelce, which would vault Noah Gray to TE1 status, you are not going to find a better waiver TE than Likely this year. Teams desperate for TE production, or those looking to block their opponents, should consider sizable FAAB bids for Likely in Week 14.
Tyjae Spears
Rostership: 35% Yahoo, 32% ESPN
FAAB Recommendation: 10-20%
According to head coach Mike Vrabel, Titans star RB Derrick Henry is not in concussion protocol. Therefore, I am assuming that he will play in Week 14, even though he took a vicious hit to the head that forced him out of Sunday’s game.
Even with this news from Vrabel, Tyjae Spears remains a top waiver add in Week 14 for two reasons. First, any time a player is forced to exit a contest without returning, there is a chance they will not play the following week. Second, Spears is one of the best RB handcuffs in fantasy football due to his stranglehold on the RB2 role and his talent profile. Spears is the only RB other than Henry to receive a single touch for the Titans this season, and he has been extremely efficient on his touches. Among 47 RBs with >65 carries, Spears is 10th in rush yards over expected per attempt, 16th in PFF rush grade, and fifth in breakaway rate.
Henry’s injury status justifies a 10-20% FAAB bid on Spears for the chance of getting a spot start. If it turns out Henry is playing, the worst-case outcome is that you modestly overpaid for one of the best RB handcuffs in fantasy football. That is a risk-reward bet that I’m happy to make.
Kenneth Gainwell
Rostership: 27% Yahoo, 14% ESPN
FAAB Recommendation: 10-20%
In the final minutes of the Eagles’ Week 13 loss to the 49ers, D’Andre Swift took a massive hit, causing him to leave the game early for the locker room. As of this writing, we know little else about Swift’s injury, although it did appear to be upper body in nature (ribs? head?).
Amidst Swift’s injury timeline uncertainty, backup RB Kenneth Gainwell emerges as an intriguing waiver-wire add. Although I don’t think Gainwell is very talented (56th of 58 RBs with >50 carries in PFF rush grade), the Eagles’ coaching staff’s trust in him is well-documented. Based on snap percentages, Gainwell has been clearly ahead of Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny in the RB pecking order in Philadelphia. If Swift were to miss a game or two, I would expect Gainwell to get ~60% of the Eagles’ RB opportunities, with Scott and/or Penny mixing in behind him. As a result, Gainwell has a chance to emerge as a low-end RB2 in fantasy rankings if Swift misses Week 14. That makes him worthy of a 10-20% FAAB bid for RB-desperate fantasy managers.
Romeo Doubs
Rostership: 54% Yahoo, 38% ESPN
FAAB Recommendation: 5-15%
Christian Watson left Week 13’s contest with a non-contact hamstring injury. On Monday, Matt LaFleur stated, “We don’t know yet,” when asked about the severity of Watson’s injury. Clear as mud.
Based on Watson’s history of hamstring injuries, including a multi-week absence earlier this year, I’m assuming he will miss 1-3 games. In his (presumed) absence, second-year WR Romeo Doubs and rookies Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks will step into larger roles in the Packers’ offense. Reed (43% rostered on ESPN) would be my preferred add of the three if available, followed by Doubs and then Wicks. On the season, Doubs has shown a knack for the end zone (seven TDs) and passable target-earning ability (19% targets per route run, 19% target share). With Jordan Love’s improved play, that makes Doubs a worthy waiver stash as a WR3 as long as Watson is out.
Elijah Moore
Rostership: 43% Yahoo, 34% ESPN
FAAB Recommendation: 5-15%
With Amari Cooper (concussion) likely to miss at least one week, Elijah Moore is likely to serve in a featured role once again in Week 14. In Week 13, Moore received 11 targets (28% share) from Joe Flacco en route to four catches for 83 yards. Though it’s just a one-week sample, the Browns’ offensive attack under Flacco was far more pass-happy than it has been all season, perhaps indicating they trust Flacco to air it out more than Deshaun Watson, P.J. Walker, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. This positive trend, combined with Cooper’s injury, forces Moore onto the WR3 radar in Week 14. For WR-needy fantasy managers, he is worthy of a 5-15% FAAB bid.
Roschon Johnson
Rostership: 23% Yahoo, 22% ESPN
FAAB Recommendation: 5-15%
After serving as the Bears’ RB3 in Week 11 behind Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson unexpectedly stepped into a clear starting RB role in Week 12. The rookie fourth-round pick handled 75% of snaps and 65% of RB opportunities (carries and targets), while Khalil Herbert was relegated to a change-of-pace role. Johnson’s promotion was somewhat surprising: He has been less efficient than Herbert on a per-touch basis, and he has graded out worse than Herbert in PFF’s rushing, receiving, and pass-blocking grades. Regardless, the Bears clearly preferred Johnson over Herbert in Week 12, which is more relevant than the aforementioned advanced statistics.
Despite the promising Week 12 usage, it’s difficult to have full confidence in Johnson. D’Onta Foreman, who played clearly ahead of Johnson in Weeks 9 and 10, could return in Week 14. As a result, Roschon Johnson could easily be relegated to RB2 duties. However, I still think fantasy managers in need of RB help should target Johnson due to the Bears’ willingness to commit to him in Week 12. There is a chance that the Bears, who are out of playoff contention, want to see their young players play as much as possible down the stretch. That makes Johnson a top-four RB add this week, though I prefer RBs with higher touch certainty (Elliott) or higher weekly upside in the event of a spot start (Spears and Gainwell).
Antonio Gibson
Rostership: 56% Yahoo, 45% ESPN
FAAB Recommendation: 0-10%
In Week 13, Commanders starting RB Brian Robinson Jr. left the game early with a hamstring injury and did not return. That forced pass-catching specialist Antonio Gibson and rookie plodder Chris Rodriguez into larger roles, with Gibson out-touching Rodriguez 12 to 7 after Robinson’s departure.
I am less excited about Gibson compared to other previously listed RBs for two reasons. First, the Commanders are on bye in Week 14, giving Brian Robinson another week to recover and potentially play in Week 15. Second, the Commanders have a very challenging schedule in the fantasy playoffs, facing the Rams, Jets, and 49ers. Thus, even if Robinson does miss games, it will be difficult to trust Gibson in our fantasy lineups. As a result, I recommend that fantasy managers interested in Gibson temper their expectations and place only modest FAAB bids for the veteran RB.
Rico Dowdle
Rostership: 17% Yahoo, 17% ESPN
FAAB Recommendation: 0-5%
The case for Rico Dowdle is straightforward. He has a stranglehold on the Cowboys’ RB2 role, and he is playing on the highest-scoring offense in football. If Tony Pollard ever missed time, he would immediately project as an RB1 in Fantasyland. Savvy fantasy managers should be looking to stash Dowdle and other similarly situated handcuffs (e.g., D’Ernest Johnson and Elijah Mitchell) to add upside to their roster for the fantasy playoffs.
Home Leagues: Best of the Rest
Best of the Rest: RBs
Elijah Mitchell remains the clear RB2 on perhaps the best team in the NFL…D’Ernest Johnson continues to play ahead of error-prone Tank Bigsby…Clyde Edwards-Helaire has stepped up as the Chiefs’ RB2 with Jerick McKinnon (groin) injured, and he has an outside chance at a spot start in Week 14 if Isiah Pacheco is suspended for throwing a punch…Chase Brown took over the RB2 role in Cincinnati on Monday Night Football…Joshua Kelley remains the Chargers’ clear RB2, though their offense looks more and more pathetic each game…DeeJay Dallas has an outside chance at a spot start with both Kenneth Walker (oblique) and Zach Charbonnet (knee) banged up, though I expect at least one of them to be back this week…Ty Chandler looks explosive, but the Vikings’ coaching staff clearly trusts Alexander Mattison more, limiting Chandler’s playing time…Latavius Murray led the Bills in snaps in Week 12, making him the clear contingent upside bet behind James Cook.
Best of the Rest: WRs
Dontayvion Wicks has had a quietly impressive rookie season, and he should see increased playing time if Christian Watson misses time…Quentin Johnston regained his starting role in Week 13 and had the best statistical game of his career (five catches for 52 yards)…Jameson Williams will make a big play every other week but only touches the ball 2-3 times per game…Zay Jones steps into a larger role with Christian Kirk (groin) banged up, but the potential loss of Trevor Lawrence may cap his upside…Jonathan Mingo has seen a target share of >20% in four straight games and is quietly outproducing Adam Thielen in recent weeks…DeVante Parker becomes the Patriots’ WR1 by default when Demario Douglas is OUT, seeing nine targets last week…Khalil Shakir is the best “WR handcuff” in fantasy football behind Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis…Demario Douglas is a WR3 PPR scam whenever he plays, but he might miss another week…Rashod Bateman has emerged as a full-time player, but he just can’t get it done in the box score…Greg Dortch is on the spot-start radar with both Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson banged up.
Drop List
Before getting to the Drop List, I first want to say that you should prioritize cutting the following types of players before cutting any RB/WRs from your roster. Again, this is assuming a standard 1-QB league.
- Any backup Kicker or D/ST you are rostering.
- Lower-upside TE2s. This assumes you have a better starter on your roster.
- Lower-upside QB2s. This assumes you have a better starter on your roster.
Finally, just because a player is on the “Drop List” doesn’t mean you have to drop them from your roster. There is always nuance involved. This list just serves as a guide of players that are commonly rostered that you could consider dropping in order to add the targets above.
Top Deeper-League Targets
Tier 1/2/3 RBs
DeeJay Dallas has an outside chance at a spot start with both Kenneth Walker (oblique) and Zach Charbonnet (knee) banged up, though I expect at least one of them to be back this week…Chase Edmonds is clearly ahead of Sean Tucker and Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the Buccaneers’ RB2 competition…Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny become interesting stashes if D’Andre Swift’s injury is more serious than expected…Chris Rodriguez has a chance at goal-line duties in Washington if Brian Robinson misses time…Ty Montgomery is the only other “RB” on the Patriots’ roster besides Rhamondre and Zeke.
Tier 1/2/3 TEs
Brevin Jordan ran a route on 74% of C.J. Stroud dropbacks for a 19% target share, and he should see increased looks as long as Dalton Schultz (hamstring) is out…Noah Gray is the best TE handcuff in fantasy…Noah Fant is running a route on just 60% of dropbacks but is always live for a big play…Zach Ertz has some free-agency outs (e.g., Baltimore and Philadelphia) to become fantasy-relevant again.
Tier 1/2/3 WRs
Dontayvion Wicks has had a quietly impressive rookie season, and he should see increased playing time if Christian Watson misses time…DeVante Parker becomes the Patriots’ WR1 by default when Demario Douglas is OUT, seeing nine targets last week…Cedrick Wilson is the contingency option to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill…Parker Washington steps into an increased role in Jacksonville with Christian Kirk (groin) banged up…Xavier Gipson ran a route on 70% of dropbacks and saw six targets…Cedric Tillman will be forced into a full-time starting role if Amari Cooper (concussion) misses time…Trey Palmer is a near full-time player and is gradually eating into Chris Godwin’s role.
