Waiver Wire Analysis: Week 9

On the whole, the waiver-wire landscape in Week 9 is relatively weak compared to average in the 2023 NFL season. However, we still have a TE with legitimate top-six upside, a historically good rookie QB debut, and an under-the-radar target-earning machine at WR that are all available in the vast majority of ESPN and Yahoo leagues. Let’s dive into the top waiver-wire targets heading into Week 9.

As a reminder, here are explanations for each section of the article. Read the descriptions below to determine whether “Home-League Waiver Targets” or “Deeper-League Targets” is more relevant for your particular league:

• Home-League Waiver Targets: This section focuses on the typical “home league” with friends, family members, and co-workers. These leagues typically include starting lineups of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs, 1 TE, 1-2 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D/ST, and 5-7 BENCH spots. I will use ESPN & Yahoo rostership percentages to gauge which players are available in a typical league. To qualify as a waiver target, the player must be rostered in <30% of leagues on either Yahoo or ESPN.
• Deeper-League Targets: This section will be focused on deeper leagues, which typically have additional starting lineup slots and deeper benches compared to the typical home league. Drafters who play in tournament contests on FFPC, NFFC, or similar should find this section helpful. To qualify as a deeper-league target, the player must be rostered in <50% of FFPC Main Event leagues.

Additionally, FAAB recommended bid percentages are given. These should generally be interpreted as a % of your original FAAB budget, not your current FAAB budget, though obviously keep in mind team- and league-specific considerations when making your bids.

For each list, I will rank the players in order based on how I would prioritize adding them to your teams. I will also include a “Drop List” of commonly rostered players that I would be comfortable parting ways with in order to add these targets to your team.

Top 10 Home-League Waiver Targets

Before diving into this week’s top targets, I want to remind everyone that several intriguing RBs barely missed the rostership thresholds to be included in this article. I would rank them as follows: Chuba Hubbard > Zach Charbonnet > Devin Singletary > Emari Demercado. I believe Chuba Hubbard is the best in terms of near-term startability after the Panthers’ relegation of Miles Sanders, while Zach Charbonnet is the best pure upside stash. All four RBs should be prioritized over the RBs listed in the top 10 targets below.

Trey McBride

Rostership: 20% Yahoo, 8% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 15-25%

In Week 8, Trey McBride saw a model-breaking 14 targets for a 40% share, the highest target share any TE has had in a game this season. McBride effectively converted those targets into production, finishing the day with 10 catches for 95 yards and a TD. McBride now has target shares of 19% and 40% in back-to-back weeks following Zach Ertz’s injury, and he is second to only Travis Kelce amongst all TEs in targets per route run (TPRR). In other words, when McBride has seen the field, Josh Dobbs has targeted him at an elite clip. With Kyler Murray’s potential return in Week 10 likely to provide a significant boost to the Cardinals’ aerial attack, McBride has legitimate top-six TE upside down the stretch. Keep in mind that the Cardinals’ pass-catching corps is bereft of proven weapons outside of Marquise Brown, and McBride is running a full complement of routes. For fantasy managers desperate to find an answer at TE, McBride is worth up to 25% of your FAAB given his target-earning ability and improving team environment.

Demario Douglas

Rostership: 3% Yahoo, 1% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 5-15%

Patriots veteran WR Kendrick Bourne suffered an unfortunate season-ending ACL injury in Week 8. That left sixth-round rookie WR Demario “Pop” Douglas as the closest thing the Patriots have to an offensive focal point, earning six targets and finishing with five catches for 25 yards. On tape, Douglas is an effective yards-after-catch (YAC) weapon, backed up by his 5.8 YAC per reception, 12th amongst all NFL WRs. Douglas also possesses strong underlying efficiency with 24% TPRR (24th amongst all WRs) and 2.2 yards per route run (YPRR). Even before Bourne’s injury, Douglas had already surpassed DeVante Parker (head) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (washed) in routes and targets, giving fantasy managers confidence that Douglas will have a large role going forward. With Bourne (21% target share) now out of the picture, it’s possible that Douglas could see consistent target shares of 20-25% going forward, essentially by default. That’s what happens when you are “competing” for targets with “wide receivers” like JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Jalen Reagor (?), and Tyquan Thornton. For WR-desperate teams, chasing those reliable targets with a 5-15% FAAB bid is justified. And maybe — just maybe — Douglas has a bit of untapped upside to become an unexpectedly reliable WR3 in fantasy land. After all, Kendrick Bourne, who was not widely regarded as a talented WR before this season, was a WR3 in points per game before his season-ending injury.

Will Levis