XFL Top Plays: Week 1

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated, if necessary.

 

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 237 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

 

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

 

QUARTERBACK

A.J. McCarron (St. Louis – $10500) – If we had to pick one QB we felt safest about for cash games this week, it would be McCarron, who may also be the most experienced and decorated starting QB in the league. An 8-year NFL veteran and three-time BCS national champion at Alabama, the 32-year-old McCarron is the one QB we feel most certain has no competition for playing time.

It’s worth noting that while we feel most comfortable with McCarron, there are other cash-game options, including Ben DiNucci and Jordan Ta’amu, while someone like Brandon Silvers makes a lot of sense as a top play in cash or GPPs. We’re bullish on the Houston aerial attack, and Silvers does have the highest median projection on the week. There’s simply less risk with McCarron.

 

RUNNING BACK

Jah-Maine Martin (Orlando – $7100) – Martin has virtually no competition for base work, as Orlando’s running back room is very thin. Backup Devin Darrington was placed on the reserved list on Thursday, and third-stringer Kelvin Taylor was cut and re-signed on Wednesday. This should be Martin’s backfield, and there’s a chance we’re being conservative on his base rush share right now. He’s projecting for the highest fantasy score, as well as the highest ownership of all RBs on the Week 1 slate.

Brian Hill (St. Louis – $5800) – Hill, who had moderate NFL success as recently as the 2020 season, leapfrogged the Battlehawks’ first RB selection, Mateo Durant, to sit atop the St. Louis depth chart. We also project St. Louis to be a run-heavy team, and we’re projecting Hill for around 45% of their rush share.

Other top options include Abram Smith, the 24-year-old RB1 for D.C., who had a very productive senior season at Baylor in 2021, as well as Max Borghi, who is not only our projected RB1 for Houston, but also projects as a pass-catching back.

 

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Josh Gordon (Seattle – $9000) – Gordon, who had more NFL lives than a cat, is no surprise to project as our best WR in Week 1. It’s been 10 years at this point since Gordon’s insane 87/1,646/9 season with the Cleveland Browns, but talent has never been a question for the big wideout. Throw in the fact that he has one of the more capable QBs throwing him the ball in Ben DiNucci, and it’s easy to be excited about Gordon’s XFL outlook.

Sal Canella (Arlington – $5400) – USFL fans are sure to be very familiar with Canella, who Arlington took with their first selection in the skill-position rounds. A talented pass-catching TE, Canella had a 34-368-2 line in last year’s USFL and is stepping into the same Bob Stoops offense that made Donald Parham an XFL stud in 2020.

Brandon Arconado (Arlington – $4700) – Canella isn’t the only Arlington pass catcher we’re excited about. We also have high hopes for Jordan Smallwood and Brandon Arconado, as the latter was a playmaking machine in the slot at Washington State and figures to step into the same high-volume role in Arlington.

Geronimo Allison (Las Vegas – $7000) – Allison, who played six NFL seasons, most notably with the Green Bay Packers, figures to be a top-two option for an offense that has some big names in Las Vegas. He should line up on the other side of their first selection, Martavis Bryant. However, it’s Allison that was listed as the WR1 on the team’s official Week 1 depth chart, and he projects slightly better than Bryant out of the gate. It’s also worth noting that he has a connection with former Packers QB and current Vipers QB Brett Hundley, who may or may not split playing time with Luis Perez.

 

DEFENSE

Arlington Renegades ($4800), Houston Roughnecks ($3000) – The difference in projection on defenses is negligible, but Arlington and Houston stand out as potential top options. Arlington looks like they’ll face off against some variation of Luis Perez and Brett Hundley as 3.5-point favorites, while Houston gets journeyman Paxton Lynch, who is certainly mistake-prone.

 

THE SOLVER MME RULE SUGGESTIONS

Rule 1: Leave some flexibility

In Week 1, there is incomplete info on some of the teams playing on Sunday. It’s not a bad idea to ensure you have space for swaps in every lineup to take advantage of possible late news.

 

Rule 2: Ramp up the variance

All players are projected for a low number of fantasy points given the low team totals and the running clock. Even one TD is generally going to be enough to win here, and high variance embraces the randomness and naturally forces in lower-owned options.