XFL Top Plays: Week 5

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated, if necessary.

 

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 237 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

 

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations.”

 

QUARTERBACK

Ben DiNucci (Seattle – $11,300) – DraftKings continues to raise DiNucci’s price, despite a down game for the former Cowboy in Week 4. Still, we believe in DiNucci as our top cash-game QB option. Seattle remained incredibly pass-heavy in Week 4, dropping back at a near 68% clip. DiNucci’s matchup with Houston on Thursday night could be a back-and-forth affair. 

A.J. McCarron (St. Louis – $10,800) – McCarron has been the model of consistency thus far in his short XFL career, never dipping below 18 DraftKings points in his four games. He finds himself in the same game environment against the D.C. Defenders in which he put up 28.08 DK points two weeks ago. 

Brandon Silvers (Houston – $10,200) – Silvers has finally cracked the five-figure mark after being Week 4’s highest-scoring QB. He was very efficient, completing 24-of-30 passes for 239 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. He gets a potentially great environment this week with a Seattle team that may finally be able to push him.

 

RUNNING BACK

Abram Smith (D.C. – $8.800) – We’re still waiting on the monster box score from Smith, but there’s no doubt that the role of the Defenders’ RB1 remains elite. D.C. stayed committed to the run in Week 4, establishing it at a 59% clip. Smith led the way with a monstrous 79.4% snap share and carried the ball 22 times.

De’Veon Smith (Arlington – $7,500) – Smith remains the lead dog in the Arlington backfield, and his outlook may have just increased as the Renegades are truly down to just two RBs with Adrian Killins released on Thursday morning. Smith found the end zone for the first time in Week 4, and he doubled the number of snaps of his backup, Kenneth Farrow.

Brian Hill (St. Louis – $8,000) – Hill has maybe been the most consistently productive XFL RB to this point in the season, as the former Atlanta Falcon took command of the Battlehawks’ backfield in Week 4, carrying the rock 18 times for 89 yards and one touchdown. He added another 2/26 through the air on a respectable six targets.

 

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Jahcour Pearson (Seattle – $11,000), Blake Jackson (SEA – $8,500) – DraftKings isn’t messing around with the price of Pearson, the most productive XFL receiver thus far. Pearson is leading the league in receptions and yards, and he has been a target monster all season (also leading the league with 40). Second in receptions, however, stands Jackson, who may be, pound for pound, the best WR play on this slate given his price compared to guys like Pearson.

Hakeem Butler (St. Louis – $9,300) – Butler’s athleticism is clearly shining in this league, as the 26-year-old has scored a touchdown in each of the Battlehawks’ first four games. He also seems to be developing a nice rapport with QB A.J. McCarron. Butler is tied for first in the league in TDs, is fifth in yards, and is on the field for nearly every snap, logging 50-of-57 last week.

Cody Latimer (Orlando – $6,000) – While it’s difficult to want to invest in the Orlando Guardians’ offense, Latimer clearly has the talent to produce in this league, and game script will often work in his favor. The former NFL second-round pick is fourth in the league in targets, and his solid floor mixed with his reasonable $6,000 price tag makes him an ideal cash-game target. 

Matthew Sexton (Las Vegas – $3,600) – If you’re looking for a salary saver this week, look no further than Sexton, who, alongside Jeff Badet, has taken over as a preferred target in the Las Vegas offense. Cinque Sweeting is another reasonable option this week, particularly if Geronimo Allison has to sit once more.

 

DEFENSE

Las Vegas Vipers ($4,000) – The Vipers seem like the clear cash-game defense in Week 5, as they get the dream matchup with Orlando. They are also underpriced as the fourth-cheapest defense on the slate.

 

THE SOLVER RULE SUGGESTIONS

RULE 1: At least two players from the HOU/SEA game

This game will be chalk, but with good reason. The two most reliable teams in terms of passing frequency and usage, there are a ton of good plays here and it’s hard to imagine a scenario where at least two of them don’t get there.

 

RULE 2: If Lance Lenoir, then dock Cody Latimer, Eli Rogers, and Charleston Rambo by 15%.

These guys rate as good values, but it’s tough to envision more than one of them getting there given how bad ORL has been and their lack of a capable passer, so we’d like to minimize lineups that play more than one of them.