XFL Top Plays: Week 7

 

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated, if necessary.

 

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 237 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

 

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

 

QUARTERBACK

Ben DiNucci (Seattle – $11,800) – Another week and another price increase for DiNucci. While his floor seems safe, DiNucci only had about 20 DK points last week, and as price continues to matter more and more, he starts to become less of a shoo-in cash option. That said, the Sea Dragons are still an offense we want to attack, and DiNucci has already proven his ceiling. If Arlington can push at all this week, DiNucci should be able to put up big points. 

A.J. McCarron (St. Louis – $11,100) – McCarron also saw his price increase for the fifth straight week, but his game environment looks friendlier than that of DiNucci’s. The STL-HOU game, which is the Sunday hammer, leads the way with a 44.5 game total, while DiNucci’s SEA-ARL matchup only has a 37.5 total. McCarron continues to be a model of consistency, turning in another 25-point DK week even though St. Louis won handily.

Jordan Ta’amu (D.C. – $8,500) – It seems that the XFL is more Ta’amu’s speed than the USFL, as the seasoned spring football product has really turned it on in two of his previous three games, eclipsing 21 DK points in those contests, including last week. Yes, D.C. wants to continue to be run-heavy, but Week 5 showed that they can also win through the air, and Ta’amu continues to be a threat with his legs. Throw in the fact that he’s over $2,000 cheaper than DiNucci, and he sits atop our Top Plays options this week.

 

RUNNING BACK

Abram Smith (D.C. – $9,600) – We knew Abram Smith was unlikely to post back-to-back 40+ point performances, but Smith was fine in Week 6, putting up “only” 18.5 DK points in a game environment in which D.C. was forced to be a bit pass-heavier than they would prefer. While he’s the most expensive RB on the slate, Smith’s floor/ceiling combo remains unmatched.

Brian Hill (St. Louis – $9,400) – With Abram Smith and Brian Hill, we have established a clear 1-2 punch as the cream of the crop of XFL RBs. Hill was once again solid on the ground and through the air in Week 6, compiling 100 combined yards exactly on 14 rushes and four receptions. Hill played on 67% of the team’s snaps and has yet to score single-digit DraftKings points in any of his five outings this season.

Jacques Patrick (San Antonio – $5,700) – It’s not often we talk about saving money at RB, but Patrick seems to be a rare instance of a RB with a true floor that is underpriced. With Kalen Ballage likely done for the year, Patrick emerged as San Antonio’s lead back in Week 6, playing on 79% of team snaps while contributing both on the ground and through the air. Given his too-cheap price, Patrick is looking like the chalkiest RB play on the slate, so he may be more suited for cash games.

 

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Hakeem Butler (St. Louis – $10,400) – DraftKings has finally priced up Butler, who is coming off of his first down week of the season, catching only 5-of-7 targets for 36 yards in what ended up being an uncompetitive game environment. Things should be different for Butler this week, who may shine in a potential shootout with the pass-heavy Houston Roughnecks. Despite his increased price and down week, we have no issues going right back to Butler in Week 7.

Cody Latimer (Orlando – $8,000) – Latimer is projecting as our highest-scoring pass catcher of Week 7, edging out Butler by 0.1 points as of this writing. Orlando consistently is playing from behind and has shown an ability to score a bit more than we expected over the past few weeks. The Guardians seemed more comfortable with Quentin Dormady tossing the rock in Week 6, having him drop back 44 times. Game script should be similar this weekend with Orlando facing off against the league’s best team — the D.C. Defenders.

Travell Harris (HOU – $6,500), Cedric Byrd (HOU – $5,300) – With Jontre Kirklin sidelined for the rest of the season, it’s been Harris and Byrd who have stepped into the secondary receiving roles behind Deontay Burnett, and both guys played roughly 75% of snaps in Week 6. This game has the potential to be a shootout, so whether it’s Brandon Silvers or Cole McDonald under center, both Harris and Byrd should be looked at as strong values this week who are reasonable in cash or GPPs.

Lucky Jackson (D.C. – $6,200) – Despite the Defenders wanting to be a run-first team, their offense is too efficient and Jackson is proving to be too talented to not put up numbers. He’s also far too cheap at only $6,200, which will make him one of, if not the most popular WR/TE play of the weekend. Jackson is coming off his best game yet with a monstrous 5-136-1 receiving line.

 

DEFENSE

D.C. Defenders ($5,000) – The Defenders seem like the cash defense of choice this week, as not only do they have the fortune of playing the worst team in the Orlando Guardians, but they also happen to be the league’s best team, so they should be able to make noise on both sides of the ball.

Seattle Sea Dragons ($3,900) – If you’re looking for a cheaper option, you can take a look at the Sea Dragons, who are only $3,900, projecting as the second-best defense, and are in the game environment with the lowest game total, perhaps signaling a defense-first affair.

 

THE SOLVER RULE SUGGESTIONS

Rule 1: Use two or three unique players

There is still a lot of volatility in the XFL and it pays to have a wide range of players spread out through your lineup set. One way to achieve that spread is to use more unique players. Two unique players means you can’t have two lineups that are just one player apart. Setting this field to two or three will help you get a wider spread more naturally.

 

Rule 2: If Brian Hill, then dock Hakeem Butler 10%

Brian Hill and Hakeem Butler are once again good plays on the slate. In MME, where you need a top-5% or top-10% outcome for each player to win, it’s a good idea to reduce the number of times you get both guys in the same lineup, as TDs from one take away from the upside of the other. Both of them may end up in the optimal, so we don’t want to completely rule it out, but we want to reduce the frequency of playing both of them together.