Projected Starting Lineup
QB Tyrod Taylor
RB David Johnson
WR Brandin Cooks
WR Chris Conley
SLWR Anthony Miller
TE Jordan Akins
LT Laremy Tunsil
LG Max Scharping
C Justin Britt
RG Marcus Cannon
RT Tytus Howard
Passing Game Outlook
Tyrod Taylor signed a one-year, $5.5 million deal with the Texans to reunite with David Culley, Taylor’s position coach for the 2017 Bills. Taylor is unlikely to maintain Houston’s starting job over rookie Davis Mills as losses pile up but could be useful in DFS against Jacksonville in Week 1 and Carolina in Week 3. 32 years old on his fifth NFL team, Taylor is a certified journeyman. The 67th overall pick in April’s draft, Mills made just 11 starts at Stanford after entering college as 2017’s No. 1 high school quarterback recruit. All Texans signal callers are set up for failure surrounded by a talent-barren supporting cast.
Brandin Cooks’ fantasy appeal is tied to his likely market-share dominance in an offense where he’s clearly Houston’s top talent. Entering his age-28 campaign, Cooks has cleared 1,000 yards in five of his last six seasons and in 2020 averaged 2.05 yards per route run, good for 22nd among qualified wideouts. The 2021 Texans’ expected offensive dysfunction forewarns of inconsistency, although Cooks should mix in spiked weeks with a stronghold on target and Air Yards percentage plus garbage-time production.
Anthony Miller and Keke Coutee are the Texans’ top-two slot receiver candidates fronted by Miller, whom Houston acquired in a low-cost trade with Chicago just before training camp. Taken 51st overall by the Bears in 2018’s draft, Miller is an erratic playmaker who fell out of favor with Chicago’s coaches due to freelance route running and Bears ownership over behavioral concerns. Coutee set career highs in receptions (33), yards (400), yards per catch (12.1), TDs (3), and yards per target (10.0) in 2020 but is inherited from Houston’s prior regime, whereas Miller was acquired by the Texans’ new front office.
Chris Conley and Nico Collins are Houston’s top-two perimeter options to play opposite Cooks; Conley signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the Texans before Houston traded up to draft Collins with 2021’s No. 89 overall pick. A career role player, Conley enters his seventh NFL season having never finished above WR40 in PPR scoring. Michigan alum Collins opted out of the Covid-impacted 2020 college season, then blazed 4.43 with a 37 ½-inch vertical and lightning-quick 6.78 three-cone time at 6-foot-4, 215 during the Wolverines’ 2021 Pro Day. Collins is a compelling prospect in Dynasty leagues.
Jordan Akins enters his contract year at age 29 finally removed from his career-long rotation with Darren Fells, who left in free agency for Detroit. Yet Akins lacks assurances of a meaningful role increase with Kahale Warring, Antony Auclair, Pharaoh Brown, Ryan Izzo, Brevin Jordan, and Paul Quessenberry also rostered at tight end. I’m viewing Akins as a ho-hum TE3 without a stable floor.
Running Game Outlook
David Johnson accepted a revised, one-year, $5 million deal to stay in Houston after a pedestrian 2020 campaign in which he finished 34th among 64 qualified backs in PFF’s Elusive Rating, missed three weeks with a scary concussion, and averaged just 83.8 total yards per game. Turning 30 later this year and now buried in arguably the league’s worst offense, Johnson’s odds of reemerging as a reliable RB2 look bleak.
Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead headline Houston’s backfield depth. 31-year-old Ingram spent the last two seasons in Baltimore with Culley, then signed a one-year, $2.5 million deal to follow Culley to the Texans. Yet early-camp reports had Ingram on the outside looking in at a 53-man roster spot. Now 27, Lindsay’s one-year contract is worth $3.25 million with twice as much as Ingram ($500,000) in guarantees ($1 million). 31-year-old bubble player Burkhead tore his ACL last Week 11.
2021 Win Total
As of Aug. 6, Houston’s DraftKings Win Total was 4.0 juiced -115 to the under. Deshaun Watson is virtually certain to never play a snap for the Texans again, while Sharp Football deemed Houston’s 2021 schedule as the NFL’s third toughest based on opponent win totals. The Texans’ defense is all but bereft of talent and coordinated by throwback Lovie Smith – who for good reason hasn’t coached in the pros in a half-decade – while any Tyrod Taylor-quarterbacked offense will inevitably struggle to generate points. Unfortunately, all value in a four-game win total has been extracted in a 17-game season. Pass.
