2023 NFL Coaching Changes: Fantasy and Betting Impact

 

As is the case every offseason, there were myriad coaching changes around the NFL this year. These changes can have an enormous impact on how things play out during the NFL season — just look at what Mike McDaniel did to the Miami offense last year — but are often difficult to keep up with since there are so many names moving around (some of which aren’t well-known by most NFL fans). To make things easier, we’ve created a summary of all the HC/OC/DC changes from the past two months along with a very quick summary of what to expect from each new staff.

 

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Head coach: Jonathan Gannon (former Eagles DC)

Offensive coordinator: Drew Petzing (former Browns QB coach)

Defense coordinator: Nick Rallis (former Eagles defensive staff)

• Arizona is likely in for a rough season, as their win total is just 4.5 right now. The primary question is how many games Kyler Murray will miss after tearing his ACL late in the 2022 season. Early reports indicate Kyler’s recovery is going well, but he seems like a long shot to play early in the year.
• Petzing has risen the ranks from an old Ivy League assistant to Vikings WR coach to Browns QB coach and now his breakthrough to an offensive coordinator gig. He may run more 2-TE sets than the previous regime given his history coaching alongside Kevin Stefanski. His introductory press conference didn’t give a whole lot of clues as to his philosophy. Regardless, this offense doesn’t inspire much hope for 2023.

 

ATLANTA FALCONS

Defensive coordinator: Ryan Nielsen (former Saints DL coach)

• The Falcons hired a new defensive coordinator but still have Arthur Smith as the head coach and Dave Ragone as their offensive coordinator. The offense should be among the most run-heavy in the league once again with the same offensive staff and Bijan Robinson now in the fold at running back.

 

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Offensive coordinator: Todd Monken (former Georgia OC)

• The Monken hire is a step in the right direction for a Ravens attack that desperately needs some creativity after a lackluster 2022. Monken pioneered two high-volume passing offenses with the Buccaneers and Jameis Winston in 2017-18 before guiding Baker Mayfield to a tumultuous 2019 campaign. For reference, Tampa Bay had a +1.7% Pass Rate Over Expectation in 2017 and +4.8% in 2018. There is reason to expect a significant uptick in team passing attempts for Baltimore.
• Lamar Jackson has also said that he is going to run less in 2023. We’ll see if that actually comes to fruition, but there has been a steady drumbeat out of BAL this offseason suggesting they want to throw the ball more. With the best pass-catching corps Jackson has ever had, this is a sneaky aerial attack.

 

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Head coach: Frank Reich (former Colts HC)

Offensive coordinator: Thomas Brown (former Rams assistant HC)

Defensive coordinator: Ejiro Evero (former Broncos DC)

• Bryce Young is the most pro-ready QB prospect in this year’s draft. While rookie QBs rarely light the world on fire, Young has the best chance of being immediately competent. Reich is a respectable NFL coach who can be trusted to not mush the rookie up. The Colts’ offense struggled last year with the corpse of Matt Ryan under center and a significantly worse offensive line than they’d had in past seasons, so a fresh start isn’t the worst thing in the world for Reich.
• It’s a decent situation for a rookie with D.J. Chark and Adam Thielen providing serviceable WR play and Miles Sanders handling RB1 duties. Carolina will hope Jonathan Mingo and/or Terrace Marshall turn into true difference-makers at wideout.
• The Colts were among the run-heaviest teams in the league during the past few seasons under Reich, but that was likely pretty personnel-driven with Jonathan Taylor and an elite offensive line. We’ll see what happens with a completely different offense in Carolina.

 

DALLAS COWBOYS

Offensive coordinator: Brian Schottenheimer

• For fantasy goodness, going from Kellen Moore to Brian Schottenheimer is a downgrade. Schottenheimer notoriously leaned on the run despite having prime Russell Wilson during his last OC tenure in Seattle. He has also been criticized in the past for a lack of creativity in his play-calling. It’s worth noting that Mike McCarthy will probably call the plays for the Cowboys and that Schottenheimer was already involved in some capacity in 2022 as a consultant, but the departure of Moore and an increased role for Schottenheimer probably isn’t great news for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ pass catchers.

 

DENVER BRONCOS

Head coach: Sean Payton

Offensive coordinator: Joe Lombardi (former Chargers OC)

Defensive coordinator: Vance Joseph (former Cardinals DC)

• The Payton hiring gives some hope of a Broncos resurgence after they were perhaps the most disappointing team in the NFL last season. Russell Wilson struggled to a career-low 6.9 average yards per attempt average as Denver finished dead last in points per game. Wilson may just have nothing left in the tank, but that would be a pretty shocking fall-off for one of the best QBs of the past decade.
• Lombardi was unpopular as Chargers offensive coordinator, but his familiarity with Payton from their time together in New Orleans inspires optimism this coaching duo can once again engineer a competent NFL offense.

 

HOUSTON TEXANS

Head coach: DeMeco Ryans (former 49ers DC)

Offensive coordinator: Bobby Slowik (former 49ers passing-game coordinator)

Defensive coordinator: Matt Burke (former Cardinals DL coach)

• Houston siphoned two key members of the 49ers’ coaching staff to head their new regime. Slowik didn’t reveal much in his introductory press conference, but it’s worth noting that San Francisco skewed run-heavy during his tenure there. He did stress the importance of being fast and physical, and perhaps Ryan’s history coaching defense could lead to a physical, ground-and-pound style (at least as long as the score permits).
• C.J. Stroud should be the 17-game starter if he can stay healthy, and a 49ers-heavy staff will look to get him easy completions in his rookie season. Stroud himself likely won’t be fantasy-relevant as a rookie, but his ability will dictate what happens with the other weapons on this Houston offense.

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Head coach: Shane Steichen (former Eagles OC)

Offensive coordinator: Jim Bob Cooter (former Jaguars passing-game coordinator)

• The Colts selected Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft and seem determined to get him on the field as a rookie. Richardson is regarded as a rawer prospect who may struggle moving the ball through the air early on, but he could be fantasy-relevant once handed the starting job because he’s such an electric runner. Steichen got the best out of Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia and will look to do the same with another strong, mobile QB in Richardson. Still, expectations for this passing game should be severely tempered in Year 1 of the Richardson era. This will be a ground-heavy attack once AR15 gets the reins.

 

 

• Before his time in Philly, Steichen was the OC for a Chargers team in 2020 that led the league in plays per game and posted a -1.3% PROE. The Eagles also dominated on the ground and in the trenches last year, which is good news for Jonathan Taylor and the Colts’ running game after a disappointing 2022.

 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Offensive coordinator: Matt Nagy (former Chiefs QB coach)

• Nagy is another Reid disciple who has been K.C.’s offensive coordinator before and should continue the Chiefs’ dominance on that side of the ball. There’s very little to worry about with the Bieniemy departure considering Nagy’s familiarity running Reid’s offense.

 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Offensive coordinator: Kellen Moore (former Cowboys OC)

Defensive coordinator: Derrick Ansley (former Chargers DB coach)

• The Cowboys were consistently among the best offenses in the league with Moore as OC. It’s a head-scratching decision to let him go in all honestly, but Justin Herbert and Co. should benefit from increased pace and creativity. Herbert had the third-lowest average depth of target (6.9) among QBs with at least 200 dropbacks last year — a common point of criticism from Joe Lombardi naysayers. Dak Prescott was above-average in aDOT in each of the past two years. With the expectation being higher pace and more downfield throwing, it’s hard to paint the Moore hiring as anything but a huge win for Herbert and the entire LAC offense. We are projecting them as the fastest team in the league by a sizable margin.

 

 

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Offensive coordinator: Mike LaFleur (former Jets OC)

• LaFleur was let go in favor of Nathaniel Hackett as the Jets sacrifice their pride in hopes of getting Aaron Rodgers, but he landed on his feet in Los Angeles. At this point, we know what to expect from the McVay offense and the addition of LaFleur (who seemed not terrible with the Jets despite the inadequacy of Zach Wilson) is unlikely to change much.

 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Defensive coordinator: Brian Flores (former Steelers LB coach)

 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Offensive coordinator: Bill O’Brien

• O’Brien is an enormous upgrade over the Matt Patricia–Joe Judge disaster the Patriots rolled out in 2022. O’Brien is at least experienced in coaching offense and familiar with the New England system. We aren’t making significant manual adjustments to our projections in terms of play volume and pass rate since it’s still mostly the same personnel alongside Bill Belichick, but the O’Brien addition is a good thing.
• We are expecting more 2-TE sets with the addition of Mike Gesicki. With two competent pass-catching TEs in Gesicki and Hunter Henry and a mediocre WR corps, Gesicki could play in a pseudo-WR role for the Patriots.

 

NEW YORK JETS

Offensive coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett (former Broncos HC)

• Hackett had a disastrous tenure as head coach for the Broncos, but he’s back in his element as an offensive coordinator. It’s likely fairer to look at his OC history rather than 2022 in terms of what to expect offensively.
• Hackett reunites with Aaron Rodgers in New York, and the two will look to replicate the success they had together with the Packers. We are throwing out the Jets’ 2022 data with such a revamped offense and expecting their pace and pass rate to be near league average.

 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Offensive coordinator: Brian Johnson (former Eagles QB coach)

Defensive coordinator: Sean Desai (former Eagles assistant HC)

• The Eagles are suffering from success after a run to the Super Bowl in 2022, as they lost both coordinators. They filled both jobs with someone who was already in the organization — good news for continuity purposes. It’s not good news to have a new OC entering 2023, but some regression was expected anyway and Johnson is familiar with the system that brought Philadelphia so much offensive success in 2022.

 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Defensive coordinator: Steve Wilks (former Panthers DC)

 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Offensive coordinator: Dave Canales (former Seahawks QB coach)

• Tampa Bay still posted a +4.9% PROE in 2022, but Todd Bowles has consistently stressed a desire to establish the run and the Buccaneers no longer have Tom Brady running point on this offense. The Bucs project as one of the worst teams in the league and may not be able to truly establish it – plus their RB depth chart is thin – but we don’t expect them to be as pass-heavy as they were with Brady.

 

TENNESSEE TITANS

Offensive coordinator: Tim Kelly (former Titans passing-game coordinator)

• Kelly has familiarity with the Titans’ system and is unlikely to change things in a significant way considering it’s an in-house promotion.

 

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Offensive coordinator: Eric Bieniemy (former Chiefs OC)

• Bieniemy has thrived for years as the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator but has not secured a head coaching job yet. In Washington, he’ll have a chance to show that he can engineer a competent offense without Andy Reid‘s help. The Commanders’ QB spot is still unsettled at this point with Sam Howell the Week 1 favorite and Jacoby Brissett there to step in if the 2022 fifth-round pick falters.
• Bieniemy is a slam-dunk hire for Washington after enormous success with the Chiefs, but the lack of a QB in Washington means this offense probably won’t be anything special in 2023.