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I am mainly a cash-game player. Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a really strange slate for two reasons. First, most of the league’s stars (Josh Allen, Stef Diggs, Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Dalvin Cooks, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams) were not on the slate. Second, the wide receiver pricing and usage set up in a way that there wasn’t a wideout I was excited to play. Zero. I can’t ever remember a slate like that.
I decided I did not want to punt at WR with any of Marvin Hall, Cam Sims, Mecole Hardman, Laviska Shenault or AJ Green. Instead, I wanted to try to get three cracks at WR and try to hit 1-2 truly difference-making spots. That meant I’d be without Calvin Ridley or Tyreek Hill.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Anyone who played XFL DFS was aware of Donald Parham, inarguably the best NFL prospect in the entire league. The 6-foot-8 freak of nature finally got his big break this week as Hunter Henry and Virgil Green were both out, prompting Anthony Lynn to name Parham his starter. Parham’s spot got even better with Keenan Allen (hamstring) unable to go in one of my favorite game environments of the slate. At stone minimum $2500 (a whopping $6000 less than Travis Kelce), I was never passing on Parham. Kelce and Austin Hooper were the only other TEs I had in my cash pool, but I never seriously considered them. The running back position was too strong to use the FLEX at tight end.
* I was of course aware that Austin Ekeler would lose work to Kalen Ballage. And of course that was incorporated into our projections. But given Justin Herbert’s efficiency, Keenan Allen’s absence and the game environment, Ekeker’s pass-catching role plus rushing efficiency was a must. Perhaps on another slate with stronger plays Ekeler wouldn’t have been a must, but I was fine paying a bit of a premium for the floor/ceiling combo.
* Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) didn’t practice all week. Even though he was active Sunday, I thought there was a reasonable chance he wouldn’t play. That would give David Montgomery an absolute floor of 20 touches in a three-down plus goal-line role against a Jaguars team which needed to lose. This “defense” came into the game 30th against RBs in our DvP metrics. So while paying $7700 for Montgomery did not feel great, the context of the slate plus the role and matchup were too much to pass on.
MY WANT PLAYS
* With Phillip Lindsay out and Royce Freeman banged up, I thought Melvin Gordon had a really good shot at 90% or more of Denver’s RB touches. We know he has a goal-line and pass-down role already. The only other running back I considered here was David Johnson (after CJ Prosise surprisingly joined Duke Johnson on the inactive list) – and maybe with more time to digest the Texans situation I would have gotten on DJ. The raw matchup for Johnson was certainly better at home against the Bengals.
* There were only two QBs in my cash pool: Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. I played with lineups that came off Mahomes, but the $1500 simply didn’t do very much on this slate. So I was certainly fine going with Mahomes as some exposure to both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
* As I mentioned at the top, this was the worst slate for WRs I could remember. Zooming out, what I wanted to do was give myself realistic ceilings at all three spots as I expected at least 1-2 of my WRs to underperform relative to salary. So instead of paying up to an eye-popping $9000 for Tyreek Hill (I had mild concerns about his hamstring) or Calvin Ridley in a tough matchup, I made a concerted effort to go balanced. That meant no Marvin Hall, Jalen Guyton, Cam Sims, AJ Green, Mecole Hardman or any other punt WR trying to squeeze out 10 points.
The result ended up Tee Higgins, Big Mike Williams and Diontae Johnson instead of something like Tyreek Hill, Cam Sims and Marvin Hall. The impressively imposing Higgins had one of the best possible matchups at Houston and projected to benefit from the removal of Tyler Boyd’s 7.6 targets per game. Mike Williams was the alpha for Justin Herbert with Keenan Allen sidelined.
My last decision came down to Brandin Cooks vs. Diontae – we had them projected nearly equal and I had enough money for either. In the end I went Diontae for the safety of double-digit targets against the Colts’ zone defense. In hindsight, that didn’t mesh with the strategy of playing for ceiling at WR I wanted to employ.
* This lineup had $2600 left for D/ST. As is almost always the case, I was fine paying down at the position – my favorites were Seahawks, Cowboys and Jets. I decided to leave $200 on the table and go with the Cowboys as he projected for more “blow up” plays than Jared Goff. Note that Brandon Thorn had Dallas with the NFL’s No. 18 pass rush vs. No. 27 for Seattle. He also had Philly’s offensive line at No. 26 vs. No. 13 for the Rams.
Week 16 Results
The results weren’t overwhelmingly strong, but I do think I ran a little bad this week. Patrick Mahomes found a floor game and was still just 22 yards from the 300-yard bonus. Melvin Gordon lost a 1-yard TD to a Drew Lock sneak. David Montgomery finished five yards shy of the 100-yard bonus and Tee Higgins came up one yard shy. Mike Williams dropped a touchdown. Overall, I think the strategy I employed at wide receiver was correct and a clear key to the slate. Big Mike, Tee and Diontae combined for a whopping 33 targets at a total cost of $15,500.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 172.10 points, won 72.8% of head-to-heads.
Week 2: 138.34 points, won 66.8% of head-to-heads.
Week 3: 129.10 points, won 59.2% of head-to-heads.
Week 4: 111.60 points, won 28.8% of head-to-heads.
Week 5: 147.78 points, won 48.5% of head-to-heads and 192.96 points, won 100% of head-to-heads.
Week 6: 142.76 points, won 62.5% of head-to-heads.
Week 7: 208.00 points, won 82.3% of head-to-heads.
Week 8: 109.16 points, won 35.3% of head-to-heads.
Week 9: 131.60 points, won 48.5% of head-to-heads.
Week 10: 102.2 points, won 19.1% of head-to-heads.
Week 11: 145.22 points, won 52.7% of head-to-heads.
Week 12: 176.18 points, won 90.6% of head-to-heads.
Week 13: 159.3 points, won 73.7% of head-to-heads.
Week 14: 144.82 points, won 49.1% of head-to-heads.
Week 15: 162.12 points, won 53.6% of head-to-heads.
Week 16: 133.72 points, won 57.1% of head-to-heads.
