Dynasty Outlook
March 23
Malik Willis is currently our QB1 for rookie drafts — and a top-three pick in Superflex drafts — as well as a top-15 QB in our overall dynasty ranks. His rushing ability puts him on par with some of the best and most productive dual-threat QBs of the past 20 years. Given that he is slated to be a first-round pick, we should feel confident that he is able to make a fair number of starts on his rookie deal, and those starts should be very high floor for fantasy due to his rushing prowess.
This mitigates the risk that he does not make it past his rookie deal as a starting QB, since we should get many startable weeks — and a quality trade window — during the opening portion of Willis’ career. The rushing also unlocks a ceiling that could make Willis one of the top-valued players at his position long term.
Profile Summary
Willis is the assumed first QB off the board at this point, and should be taken in the first round of the NFL Draft — perhaps even as high as the top 10. But much like Kenny Pickett, he compares to a lot more players taken outside of the first round. Some of that is due to the unique nature of his game — Willis is one of the best runners we’ve seen at the position — but he is also an older prospect who has lower pass efficiency than we typically see from highly-drafted players. As the scouts note, his accuracy can be erratic even though his arm is quite strong. With that said, Willis has the upside to pay off that price tag for an NFL team.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/21) — 22.6
Experience — 5 years
Height — 72.5 inches
Weight — 219 pounds
Hand Size — 9.5 inches
Arm Length — 31.75 inches
Wingspan — 77.375 inches
By the Numbers
Willis started his career at Auburn, playing sparingly behind Jarrett Stidham. He then transferred to Liberty. After sitting out a year due to the transfer rules — many other players have received waivers to avoid this — Willis started his final two seasons, leading the Flames to a 17-6 record and showing outstanding dual-threat promise as a prospect. He did not quite reach 9.0 AYA in his final season, which is a benchmark we look for.
Willis played against three top-50 defenses while at Liberty. In total, he completed 56% of his passes with 2 TDs and 7 INTs. While this is generally concerning, it is worth remembering that the surrounding talent with the Flames is an obvious mismatch against top competition. We should not penalize Willis heavily for this, but great production would have been eye-opening.
As a runner, Willis is remarkably well-accomplished, rushing for 1.32 and 0.99 yards per play in his final two seasons. In our database, there have only been five prospects since 2005 to exceed 0.90 rushing yards per play and be selected in the first round — Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Tim Tebow, and Vince Young. These QBs represent some of the most productive rushers we’ve seen at the position over the last two decades.
What the Scouts are Saying
Daniel Jeremiah had this to say about Willis:
Willis is a thick, sturdy quarterback with elite arm strength and play-making ability. He has quick feet in his setup and he throws from a wide, firm base. He usually releases the ball out of a 3/4 arm slot and it jumps out of his hand. He generates incredible RPMs and flashes the ability to fit passes into tight windows. His accuracy is inconsistent. At times, he gets too wide with his feet and the ball sails to the perimeter. He has shown the ability to change ball speed, but he can improve on layer throws. He misses out on some completions because his throws are too flat. He’s effective extending and creating against pressure (which he faced a ton of). He’s outstanding on QB draws, powers, and zone reads. He has a burst and pulls through tackles. Overall, Willis is still a work in progress, but he has the most upside on any QB in this class.
Dane Brugler also noted the strength of Willis’ arm — along with some inconsistencies in his play:
Although his timing and accuracy go through lulls, Willis has a fluid release, outstanding velocity, and a great feel for touch and placement on vertical-based patterns. With his escapability and body strength, the backfield was his playground, but he struggles to recognize pressures and takes too many sacks (No. 1 in the FBS with 51 sacks in 2021). Overall, Willis requires time to mature his anticipation, vision, and accuracy, but he has the potential to be a dynamic NFL playmaker due to his natural athleticism, arm talent, and intangibles.
Lance Zierlein sees the upside in Willis:
Upside quarterback with special parts of his game, but with no guarantee they will be assembled properly into a finished product. Willis uses his rare combination of elite rushing talent and a rocket-launching right arm to unlock explosive plays in two different ways. He has the arm to beat safeties to the deepest parts of the field and makes impressive throws from inside and outside the pocket. On the flip side, Willis’ mechanical and operational inconsistencies lead to erratic timing and accuracy, and he doesn’t throw with enough touch. Protection and receiver separation were both issues, but Willis also pressed over the second half of the season and never looked comfortable in the Liberty offense. On the pro level, additional film work and a layered, pro-style passing attack could allow for more focused reads and help him see the field faster and more clearly from the pocket. Play-callers must lean into his special talent as a runner and include called runs into the game plan. Even if Willis fails to reach his passing potential, running ability doesn’t slump and he has the talent to produce on the ground at a level between Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson.
Draft Projection
Willis currently has an expected draft position of 10.8 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. NFL Mock Draft Database, a similar service, has him 11th overall. He goes 18th in Brugler’s most recent mock, but is not featured in the first round at all in Jeremiah’s. After an excellent pro day, it definitely seems more likely that he ends up in the middle of the first round than out of it. Still, the range of outcomes on his draft position remains wide.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate QB prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable QBs in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
QB comps are noticeably difficult to come up with given the overall sample size of players we have to observe. We should be using the comps to see A) What is the likelihood this QB is a long-term starter and B) If he is, what is his upside?
Willis is a very unique prospect, with only one QB in our database grading out as 80% similar or better — Colin Kaepernick. This is a seemingly accurate match when considering strength of school/schedule (-3.51 for Willis, -3.54 for Kaep) and pass efficiency (8.62 vs 8.39), while sticking to our list of QBs with a rushing yards per play over 0.90. It also matches the theme with this class that we may be dealing with more Round 2-graded prospects being pushed to Round 1 due to scarcity.
But we never want to focus too much on just one comp. There are plenty of later-drafted and failed prospects that make our list, which give an idea of the wide range of outcomes Willis presents. However, the upside is high. Young and Jackson make this list, as well as Jalen Hurts, another QB who has had a major impact with his legs.
