Jahan Dotson was widely regarded as a late Round 1 pick leading into Thursday night, but the Commanders felt strongly enough about the Penn State product to nab him 16th overall. The new-look Commanders will have Carson Wentz leading the way, but outside of Terry McLaurin, they had question marks at pass catcher after Curtis Samuel struggled with injuries last season and Logan Thomas tore his ACL in mid-December. Enter Dotson, who paced the Nittany Lions with a 36% receiving yards market share in his final season in University Park. Let’s take a look at how Dotson looks in ETR’s projections after getting earlier-than-expected draft capital.
JAHAN DOTSON
Projection: 49.2 catches on 84.6 targets for 630.7 yards and 3.7 touchdowns. WR73 on Underdog (150th overall).
- Anthony Amico expressed concerns about Dotson as a talent in his prospect profile, noting that he was a minimal producer during his first two years at Penn State before breaking out as a junior. He was also a four-year college player, a trait that generally bodes poorly for wideout prospects. Furthermore, Dotson is on the smaller side at 5-foot-11 and 178 pounds, and he didn’t test as a game-breaking athlete at the NFL Combine. Scouts have also voiced concerns about his play strength, which is especially notable given his small stature. Daniel Jeremiah said as much in March:
“He doesn’t have the strength to break tackles consistently. His overall play strength is the only real concern with his transition to the next level, but he has the ability to produce both outside and in the slot.”
- Still, Dotson was highly productive during his final two seasons in college, and he boasts strong draft capital as the 16th overall pick. That draft capital ensures he’ll be involved as a rookie, and we made him Washington’s Day 1 WR2 — ahead of Samuel — in our projections.
- However, the Commanders have a true alpha receiver in McLaurin to go along with a highly involved tight end and two capable pass-catching running backs. Thomas is a candidate to open 2022 on the short-term injured reserve if his knee isn’t fully healthy by Week 1, but he’ll be nine months removed from his ACL tear by mid-September. As it stands, Dotson has a 14.8% target share in our projections, third on the Commanders behind McLaurin and Thomas. Samuel, J.D. McKissic, and Antonio Gibson should all be fairly involved, too.
- Dotson doesn’t have the target ceiling of some other rookie wideouts with so many other capable options in Washington. That partially explains why he’s so low in our rankings compared to some other members of the 2022 rookie class.
OTHER COMMANDERS PLAYERS
- Samuel took a sizable hit in our rankings, as Dotson will have every opportunity to earn the WR2 gig right away. We also decreased the target shares of Adam Humphries and Dyami Brown. Brown has some fans — including yours truly — but it’s hard to envision a path to relevancy with so many other options in Washington. He had chances to earn targets as a rookie when the Commanders’ receiving corps was banged up, and failed to do so, which doesn’t inspire confidence for a Year 2 breakout. It’s too soon to give up on Brown since he had such a promising production profile at North Carolina, but his path to relevancy is much cloudier with Dotson in the picture. Humphries is what he is at this point and could see some low-depth targets here and there, but McLaurin, Dotson, and Samuel are likely to be on the field in 3-WR sets for Washington most of the time.
- We also decreased Thomas’ target share, partially because we weren’t previously accounting for the fact that he could miss time at the beginning of the season. His status for Week 1 appears uncertain at the moment after he tore his ACL in December of last year.
