We believe NFL Player Props are among the softest markets in the NFL betting menu.
That doesn’t mean it’s easy — but it does mean we think we have a good chance to beat it. That’s because we are already doing all of the hard work our fantasy sports products. We are incredibly serious fantasy and DFS players. And each week, we project how every player in every game will fare. We do this using statistical models plus simulations we’ve built in tandem with a unique understanding of player usage and coaching tendencies. This is part math, part football, and part gambling knowledge.
Here is how we’ve fared in NFL and NBA in-season props since we started Establish The Run in 2019. Note that the won/lost dollar amount assumes betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop:
2019 NFL In-Season Player Props: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Player Props: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Player Props: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Player Props: 216-118, +$8,572; 22.1% ROI
2021-22 NBA In-Season Player Props: 751-495, +$20,348; 14% ROI
2022-23 NFL In-Season Player Props: 308-222, +$5,860; 9.5% ROI
2022-23 NBA In-Season Player Props: 700-455, +$18,770; 13.9% ROI
2023-24 NFL In-Season Player Props: 253-225, +$267; 0.48% ROI
2023-24 NBA In-Season Player Props: 688-432, +$19,473; 14.73% ROI
2024-25 NFL In-Season Player Props Official Straight Bets: 29-23, +$363; 5.98% ROI
2024-25 NFL In-Season Player Props Official Longshot Bets: 11-30, +$578; 67.6% ROI
We have made changes to this product in 2024. BEFORE making a purchase, please read the entire FAQ below. To subscribe, CLICK HERE.
NEW IN 2024
1. We expect to release more early-week plays (Wednesday and Thursday). The reason for this is that there are many plays we identify as good bets on Wednesday and Thursday. But we are nearly certain that the lines will move before we can release them on the weekend. After surveying our customers, it’s clear to us that many prefer the chance to bet at smaller limits with less availability. Our plan is to look at every potential bet through a lens of “will this play still be available later in the week?” If the answer is “definitely not,” then we will release it early in the week, even if it is not available on many books. If the answer is more uncertain, then we will wait in hopes to release it to a more mature betting market. We will track and release our results on “Early-week” plays vs the rest of our releases so subscribers and potential subscribers can compare our results and decide for themselves if subscribing is worthwhile.
2. More emphasis on weekly/game leaders markets. More books are releasing “weekly” or “game” stat leaders markets, and we plan to release more of these plays. These markets offer less potential liquidity than normal markets, so it is likely they will be released informally in our Discord. An added benefit to being active in our Discord is that you will be more likely to see these releases. We plan to track our results in these markets and share them for accountability.
3. ETR Discord member “Swirv” will continue to release unofficial plays within the ETR Discord. We’ve asked him to ensure lines are widely available and price is included in the release so we can accurately track results. Keep in mind, we consider this a “bonus” to subscribers, these are not official releases and subscribers should make their own judgements about how they want to approach handling these plays.
FAQ
WHO IS MANAGING AND CONTRIBUTING TO THIS PRODUCT?
Nearly our entire NFL team, led by Adam Levitan. This includes our analytics and projections teams.
HOW WILL THE PLAYS BE DELIVERED?
We will be providing notifications through Telegram. You will be notified to open our private subscriber-only Discord channel where we will post the play. We do NOT recommend purchasing this subscription if you are not willing to install this application and turn on push notifications. There will be a link to the telegram group in Discord and in an email you receive when purchasing the product.
WHAT IS TELEGRAM?
Telegram is a simple chat service. You may download it for desktop or mobile here: https://telegram.org/.
HOW MANY PLAYS WILL I GET?
This is impossible to predict with perfect accuracy, but we would guess somewhere around 20 plays per week on average. Additionally, there may be “unofficial’ plays released within the Discord that are either not widely available or not considered as strong as plays that we normally release. There will also be game and weekly leader plays (see above).
WHEN WILL THE PLAYS BE RELEASED? ***NEEDS TO BE UPDATED**
Whenever we find a prop worth betting on, we take it. It could be any time of the day or night. Typically bets will begin on Wednesday night and end once the last game of the week kicks off.
DO I GET ANYTHING ELSE BESIDES PLAYS?
Yes. You will receive access to our private Discord community, which is only for paying ETR subscribers. Historically, our Discord has “crowdsourced” strong betting opportunities, in addition to discussing betting strategies, outs, etc. Many subscribers have told us the Discord community has created significant value for them.
You also receive access to our full statistical projections weekly on Saturdays at 3pm ET.
For clarity, note that our PrizePicks DFS lines vs. Our Projections table is NOT part of this subscription. All fantasy projections and content can be found in our In-Season Fantasy/DFS product.
DO YOU GUARANTEE I WILL BE ABLE TO GET THE LINES?
No. In fact, we can guarantee it won’t be easy. Lines typically move within a few seconds to 30 seconds after we release a play. It is what it is. It is up to you to be ready, and be fast. It also helps to have a lot of “outs”, aka different sportsbooks to bet props at.
CAN YOU GUARANTEE I WILL WIN?
Absolutely not. We’re going to do our best, but this is a competitive market and we make no guarantees.
WHAT BOOKS WILL I NEED MONEY ON?
As many as possible is ideal, but that’s up to you. We will be looking at the offerings from any legal United States book that has a presence in a majority of legal states. The majority of our bets will be on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesar’s. Occasionally, BETMGM, ESPNBet, BetRivers, Circa and others will be in play. We recognize there are other legal or offshore books that may have similar (or different) lines to our releases, but that is not something we will cover within this product. Do not sign up if that is an issue for you.
To read about sign-up offers for sportsbooks, please see here.
HOW MUCH DOES IT COST?
The price is $39.99 per week. We do expect to modify this price as the season goes along. To be clear: the price may go up or down during the season, though we think it’s more likely to go down as the season goes along. Our goal is to find a balance where we believe customers are getting strong value while our company is paid appropriately for the value we create.
WHY ARE YOU ONLY OFFERING A WEEKLY SUBSCRIPTION?
The No. 1 complaint about this product, historically, has been that it is hard to get the same lines we post because the sportsbooks quickly move the lines. This is a legitimate issue. However, there are countless customers who are able to get the lines.
We want to just be extremely straightforward: If you can’t get the lines, cancel your subscription. If you’re taking a week off, traveling out of state, etc., you can cancel your subscription as well. With this setup, people only pay for what they use. And if the product is not for you for any reason, simply cancel whenever you want. We don’t want to be in a position where we are taking large payments upfront and people are unhappy with us, or even have the possibility for that perception to exist.
