Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected on our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 128-102, +$1,306 (through Week 7)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 44-32, +996 (through October 26)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Rachaad White rush+rec yards
Line: 31.5 yards
Mean Projection: 42.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: October 26, 1:10pm ET
Notes: On a short week, we expect White to handle at least 35% of the RB touches. With upside for plenty more.
2. Drake London receiving yards
Line: 33.5 yards
Mean Projection: 53.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: October 26, 5:00pm ET
Notes: An insulting line to a player of London’s ability. We are baking in ATL’s pathetic throw rate — we have Marcus Mariota for just 22.8 attempts.
3. Kyle Pitts receiving yards
Line: 28.5 yards
Mean Projection: 44.6 yards
Book: Caesar’s (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 26, 6:55pm ET
Notes: Another insulting line. Coming off the ugly loss in Cincy, we think there’s a decent chance the Falcons finally find some schemed targets to Pitts.
4. PJ Walker passing yards
Line: 164.5 yards
Mean Projection: 201.2
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 26, 7:11pm ET
Notes: We have wildly conservative projections on the Panthers’ pass game and Walker’s ability. And this is still popping. We have to close our eyes and take it.
5. Julio Jones receiving yards
Line: 24.5 yards
Mean Projection: 35.5
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 27, 5:38pm ET
Notes: We expect Jones to see a better role than is being projected by the market, and he has efficiency upside playing with Tom Brady.
6. Mark Andrews anytime touchdown
Line: +200
Mean Projection: 0.65 TDs
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: +200 anytime touchdown
Date: October 27, 7:47pm ET
Notes: Andrews has scored in 4 of 7 games to start the year.
7. Melvin Gordon carries
Line: 9.5 carries
Mean Projection: 12.4 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-125)
Date: October 28, 12:07pm ET
Notes: Gordon functioned as the lead runner last week against the Jets, and the game script should remain fairly neutral in this matchup.
8. Alec Pierce receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.5 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: October 28, 1:14pm ET
Notes: Pierce has gone under in 4 of 6 games with Matt Ryan, and we project less passing volume with Sam Ehlinger at QB.
9. Antonio Gibson rushing yards
Line: 32.5 yards
Mean Projection: 27.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: October 28, 1:31pm ET
Notes: There is a huge difference in matchup both in terms of pace and run-stopping going to the Colts from Green Bay.
10. D’Wayne Eskridge receiving yards
Line: 20.5 yards
Mean Projection: 15.2 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: October 28, 1:50pm ET
Notes: Should function as the third WR behind Tyler Lockett and Marquise Goodwin. Has not been a target-earner per route for his career so far.
11. Andy Dalton pass + rush yards
Line: 264.5 yards
Mean Projection: 228.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 28, 3:18pm ET
Notes: New Orleans has leaned run-heavy with Dalton under center and this is a pretty big number for a non-mobile QB.
12. Geno Smith pass yards
Line: 239.5 yards
Mean Projection: 223.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 28, 9:24pm ET
Notes: Tyler Lockett (ribs, hamstring) is banged up and DK Metcalf (knee) might not even play. There’s also wind and some rain in the forecast.
13. Devin Singletary rush yards
Line: 57.5 yards
Mean Projection: 54.9 yards
Book: Caesar’s (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-103)
Date: October 28, 9:29pm ET
Notes: In smaller games, the Bills tend to ride their secondary backs more. And in a blowout, we think they’ll go to a lot of James Cook and/or Zack Moss.
14. Dawson Knox receptions
Line: 3.5 catches
Mean Projection: 2.9 catches
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-145)
Date: October 28, 9:32pm ET
Notes: We are showing roughly 13% EV here despite the -145 line. We are not expecting the Packers to be able to generate a shootout here against a very good Bills defense, leaving Josh Allen’s attempts somewhat capped.
15. Olamide Zaccheaus receiving yards
Line: 37.5 yards
Mean Projection: 33.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: October 28, 9:56pm ET
Notes: We are expecting some of Zaccheaus’ target share to rotate back into Kyle Pitts and Drake London. The talent gap is enormous.
16. Jared Goff completions
Line: 24.5 completions
Mean Projection: 23.1 completions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 28, 10:05pm ET
Notes: Yes, this game could turn into a shootout with Tua. But we’ll take our chances at this massively high number for the talent-deficient Jared Goff.
17. Darrell Henderson carries
Line: 11.5 carries
Mean Projection: 9.6 carries
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-142)
Date: October 29, 4:39pm ET
Notes: There are whispers that Henderson could cede work to Ronnie Rivers and the Rams may go pass-heavy against a stout 49ers run defense.
18. Dontrell Hilliard receiving yards
Line: 15.5 yards
Mean Projection: 13.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: October 29, 10:15pm ET
Notes: With Malik Willis making his first start, this figured to be a run-heavy attack with Derrick Henry seeing more snaps than usual. Rushing QBs typically are less likely to check down to RBs as well.
19. Joe Burrow passing yards
Line: 275.5 yards
Mean Projection: 259.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 30, 9:51am ET
Notes: Without Ja’Marr Chase, this entire passing game sees a huge hit.
20. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine receiving yards
Line: 24.5 yards
Mean Projection: 21.3 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: October 30, 10:07am ET
Notes: NWI is 3-2 to the under with Ryan Tannehill under center, and Malik Willis starting should lower his range of outcomes.
21. Eno Benjamin rush + rec yards
Line: 77.5 yards
Mean Projection: 68.0 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: October 30, 11:41pm ET
Notes: Benjamin will share work with Darrel Williams and Keaontay Ingram in the Cards’ backfield.
22. Foster Moreau receptions
Line: 2.5 catches
Mean Projection: 3.7 catches
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: October 30, 12:45pm ET
Notes: With Darren Waller ruled out, this line has not adjusted enough.
23. Dameon Pierce carries
Line: 16.5 carries
Mean Projection: 20.3 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: October 30, 3:09pm ET
Notes: The Malik Willis start makes it more likely the Texans get a lead and ride Pierce hard.
24. Will Dissly receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.2 receptions
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 30, 3:38pm ET
Notes: With Lockett and Metcalf active, Dissly is likely the fourth option at best in this passing game, plus he is due for some regression with a 95% catch rate this year.
25. Robert Tonyan receiving yards
Line: 26.5 yards
Mean Projection: 41.5 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: October 30, 3:44pm ET
Notes: Tonyan should have a large role given the depleted state of the Packers’ WR corps.
26. Sammy Watkins receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.5 receptions
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+130)
Date: October 30, 7:46pm ET
Notes: The Packers get Christian Watson back tonight and Watkins has historically been a volatile player. We like this bet at the +130 odds and would only take at plus-money.
27. Kareem Hunt carries
Line: 9.5 carries
Mean Projection: 7.6 carries
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-140)
Date: October 31, 8:41am ET
Notes: Hunt has seen a bit of a workload decrease of late, and the team looking to trade him may further reduce his action on Monday night.
