Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 230-174, +$3,349 (through Week 14)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 269-160, +$9,195 (through December 14)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. J.K. Dobbins rushing yards
Line: 53.5 yards
Mean Projection: 47.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-105)
Date: December 15, 11:46am ET
Notes: This is a short week for Dobbins coming off a long injury layoff, and the return of Tyler Huntley could limit volume.
2. Geno Smith completions
Line: 21.5 completions
Mean Projection: 23.2 completions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+105)
Date: December 15, 12:20pm ET
Notes: Smith has completed 71.5% of his passes this year, and this comes in at a great price.
3. Deshaun Watson passing yards
Line: 224.5 yards
Mean Projection: 204.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 15, 12:32pm ET
Notes: We haven’t seen crisp play from Watson upon his return from suspension, and the projected game script is less pass-happy than Week 14.
4. Raheem Mostert rushing yards
Line: 44.5 yards
Mean Projection: 63.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: December 15, 5:19pm ET
Notes: Mostert is at worst in an even split in the Miami backfield, but he has workhorse potential if Jeff Wilson (who is questionable) misses due to injury.
5. Justin Fields passing yards
Line: 159.5 yards
Mean Projection: 179.4
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+110)
Date: December 16, 8:34am ET
Notes: Fields is 5-3 to the over in his last eight against this line, and there is agreement across the industry that the number is too low.
6. Cole Kmet receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.8 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+115)
Date: December 16, 8:44am ET
Notes: Our projection currently includes Chase Claypool, who could very well not suit up and add value to this prop.
7. James Cook rushing plus receiving yards
Line: 38.5 yards
Mean Projection: 52.9 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: December 16, 8:59am ET
Notes: Cook has taken significant snaps of late, and the line is very low for a yardage combination in a game that could have weather forcing more touches for RBs.
8. Jalen Hurts carries
Line: 8.5 carries
Mean Projection: 10 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+105)
Date: December 16, 9:27am ET
Notes: We believe this line has been impacted by a combination of recency bias and blowout risk. Hurts is 9-4 against this number on the year, and the hit rate is strong historically based on our projections and the spread.
9. D’Onta Foreman rushing yards
Line: 70.5 yards
Mean Projection: 61.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 16, 1:06m ET
Notes: Chuba Hubbard was pretty involved last week and this is a big number for a committee back.
10. Parris Campbell receiving yards
Line: 45.5 yards
Mean Projection: 43.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 16, 1:34pm ET
Notes: Campbell’s target share has been volatile throughout the season, but his efficiency is pretty uninspiring and he’d likely need to command a significant share to expect 46+ yards in the majority of outcomes.
11. Isaiah Hodgins receiving yards
Line: 35.5 yards
Mean Projection: 32.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: December 16, 5:32pm ET
Notes: With Richie James in and Darius Slayton as the clear WR1, we don’t have Hodgins with enough volume to expect more than 35 yards as a median outcome.
12. Rachaad White receiving yards
Line: 26.5 yards
Mean Projection: 20.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: December 16, 6:05pm ET
Notes: Leonard Fournette had a slight edge in passing situations last week.
13. Najee Harris carries
Line: 15.5 carries
Mean Projection: 15.1 carries
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+102)
Date: December 16, 9:13pm ET
Notes: Harris has seen more limited snaps than early in the year and last season while dealing with injuries and his poor play.
14. Alvin Kamara rushing yards
Line: 62.5 yards
Mean Projection: 57.7 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: December 16, 10:40pm ET
Notes: Kamara has played more than 38 snaps just once in his last four contests, and the team just added Eno Benjamin.
15. Derrick Henry receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.4 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-105)
Date: December 16, 11:00pm ET
Notes: The under is 8-5 on the year against this line, and we get it at decent juice.
16. Zach Wilson pass attempts
Line: 28.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 33.1 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+100)
Date: December 16, 11:17pm ET
Notes: We believe the market has overreacted to the QB change given the game scripts each QB has seen in their respective starts.
17. James Conner rush attempts
Line: 16.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 19.7
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-131)
Date: December 17, 11:47am ET
Notes: Conner is playing nearly all the snaps for Arizona, meaning this bet comes down to outsized game script and injury risk.
18. Noah Gray receiving yards
Line: 9.5 yards
Mean Projection: 20.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: December 17, 1:20pm ET
Notes: Gray has carved out a legitimate role in Kansas City’s offense. This line is too low.
19. Quez Watkins receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.9 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+142)
Date: December 17, 8:44pm ET
Notes: This line looks like it was set with the expectation Dallas Goedert would return. Without Goedert, Watkins has seen a spike in his role and is well worth the shot at +142.
20. Tutu Atwell receiving yards
Line: 25.5 yards
Mean Projection: 44.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: December 17, 10:03pm ET
Notes: Atwell has carved out a solid role as the WR3 for the Rams over the last few weeks. He has a massive aDOT and yards/reception mark on the season, so he should clear this line if he catches two balls.
21. Ryan Tannehill pass attempts
Line: 27.5 pass attempts
Mean Projection: 30.1 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 18, 10:01am ET
Notes: The Titans will want to run against the Chargers’ defense, but they may need to throw to keep up and we have market agreement on our projection.
22. Josh Reynolds receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.8 receptions
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+143)
Date: December 18, 10:11am ET
Notes: Jameson Williams may get a bigger role at some point, but there’s no signs of that happening this week and we project an over and get big + money.
23. Derrick Henry rush attempts
Line: 23.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 22.5 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: December 18, 10:17am ET
Notes: A huge number with multiple ways to get there (game script, injury, etc.).
24. Aaron Rodgers passing yards
Line: 235.5 yards
Mean Projection: 222.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: December 18, 10:34am ET
Notes: This game will be a slog and Rodgers has struggled mightily at times this season.
25. Travis Etienne receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.1 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-106)
Date: December 18, 10:40am ET
Notes: ETN is out there a lot but has struggled to earn targets.
26. Austin Ekeler rushing attempts
Line: 11.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 13.1 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 18, 11:08am ET
Notes: Even in a game where we project the Chargers to go pass-heavy, we still have Ekeler for 13.1 carries.
27. Rex Burkhead rushing yards
Line: 38.5 yards
Mean Projection: 33.0 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: December 18, 11:25am ET
Notes: Burkhead will split carries with Dare Ogunbowale and potentially Royce Freeman in a game where Houston is big underdogs.
28. Brock Wright receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.1 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-135)
Date: December 18, 12:26pm ET
Notes: Wright is splitting routes with Shane Zylstra.
29. Jerick McKinnon receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.5 receptions
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: December 18, 12:47pm ET
Notes: McKinnon has 17 targets in three games without CEH.
30. Travis Etienne carries
Line: 14.5 carries
Mean Projection: 17.1 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+100)
Date: December 18, 12:51pm ET
Notes: The spread on this game is tight despite perception about each team. Etienne has been their clear workhorse.
31. Daniel Jones completions
Line: 19.5 completions
Mean Projection: 18.7 completions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: FanDuel (-114)
Date: December 18, 2:07pm ET
Notes:
