The Rundown: Week 5

Welcome to The Rundown: Week 5. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. We’ll also provide some additional stats and notes to help make those crucial decisions when building and setting your lineups on Sunday mornings. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.

Texans at Falcons, 1 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game a slow-paced slog. Texans games went from averaging the sixth-most combined plays through two weeks (132.5) to 125 total plays in each of their following contests — which would rank 21st on the full season. There are many things to like about the Texans’ offense — and as the offensive line regains health, the running game should join the list — but we’ve yet to see them truly push the pace without being pushed themselves. Opponents hand off against the Texans at the second-highest situation-neutral rate. Smith doesn’t need an excuse to spam handoffs, but he has an excellent one here. Falcons games already produce the eighth-fewest combined plays and third-fewest total points. It’s hard to envision those averages rebounding significantly on Sunday.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed both of Tank Dell ($4,800 DK) and Drake London ($4,700 DK) as strong DraftKings-only plays. Dell gets a good matchup in Week 5 against a Falcons team that is strong against outside WRs but vulnerable to the slot. He projects for 6.2 targets. London should continue to be a top source of tournament salary relief, even with the concerns surrounding Atlanta’s passing game. He projects for 6.1 targets.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “C.J. Stroud has thrown for 1,212 yards…yet this is a ho-hum spot for Stroud; the Falcons have yielded the NFL’s sixth-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.6) and 13th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.“
• “I’m riding with Dameon Pierce as a volume-driven RB2 play here. This profiles as a neutral-script game, positioning Pierce to handle repetitive handoffs.”
• “20th in the league in Air Yards share (34%), Nico Collins has earned every-week WR2/3 treatment, regardless of opponent.”
• “Tank Dell managed season lows in targets (3) and production (1/16/0) in Week 4’s win over Pittsburgh but logged a year-high 70% snap rate and parlayed two rushing attempts into 13 yards. Slowik is aggressively scheming to get Dell the ball.”
• “We appear to be nearing Taylor Heinicke time with Desmond Ridder mightily struggling…Heinicke is worth adding in two-QB leagues.”
• “Bijan Robinson enters Week 5 with touch counts of 16, 23, 14, and 19 under his belt set to face a Texans defense enemy backs have flamed for five TDs and an average of 125.6 all-purpose yards in four games.”
• “Drake London’s stat line over his last 17 games is just 65/761/4 (11.7 YPR).”
• “HC Arthur Smith confirmed publicly this week that Kyle Pitts is simply not 100%. Pitts is out there running with an obvious hitch in his gait.”

Panthers at Lions, 1 p.m. EST (return to top)