Thorn’s Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches: Week 8

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 8. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 8 Bye: None

DL Rankings – Week 8

1. Cowboys
2. 49ers
3. Browns
4. Eagles
5. Steelers – DT Cameron Heyward was activated off of short-term injured reserve and returned to practice, although his status this week remains undecided. DT Larry Ogunjobi missed practice on Thursday with a shoulder injury but is still questionable to play.
6. Jets
7. Titans
8. Commanders
9. Chiefs
10. Packers
11. Bills – DT DaQuan Jones is likely out for the year with a pec injury.
12. Chargers
13. Giants
14. Rams
15. Jaguars
16. Raiders
17. Lions
18. Panthers
19. Texans
20. Dolphins
21. Colts
22. Falcons
23. Vikings
24. Bengals
25. Bucs
26. Ravens
27. Patriots – Edge rusher Matt Judon is on short-term injured reserve with a biceps injury.
28. Saints
29. Broncos
30. Cardinals
31. Seahawks
32. Bears

OL Rankings – Week 8

1. Eagles – RG Cam Jurgens is on short-term injured reserve.
2. Chiefs
3. Cowboys – LT Tyron Smith was limited in practice on Thursday with a neck issue after logging a full practice on Wednesday.
4. Browns
5. Ravens
6. Lions – LG Jonah Jackson missed practice on Thursday nursing an ankle injury that has kept him out of the last two games. C Frank Ragnow missed practice on Thursday with calf and toe injuries.
7. 49ers – LT Trent Williams missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday after missing last week with an ankle injury.
8. Chargers – C Corey Linsley remains out with a “non-emergent heart-related issue” that has kept him out of the lineup since Week 3.
9. Bucs
10. Texans
11. Patriots
12. Jaguars
13. Vikings
14. Falcons
15. Bills
16. Colts – RT Braden Smith missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with hip and wrist injuries after missing the last two games.
17. Bengals
18. Cardinals
19. Saints – James Hurst missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury after not playing last week.
20. Packers – LT David Bakhtiari was placed on injured reserve.
21. Rams
22. Jets – RG Joe Tippmann is expected to be out multiple weeks with a quadriceps injury suffered last week.
23. Dolphins – LT Terron Armstead suffered a knee injury in his first game of the season last week and is out for the foreseeable future. C Conner Williams was limited on Wednesday after missing the last two games with a groin injury. Williams practiced in a limited fashion last Thursday and didn’t play.
24. Seahawks – RT Abraham Lucas was placed on short-term injured reserve and is expected to be out again this week. He hasn’t played since Week 1.
25. Broncos
26. Raiders
27. Panthers
28. Giants – LT Andrew Thomas, RT Evan Neal, and C John Michael Schmitz were all limited in practice on Thursday, signaling at least them being questionable this week. Thomas has been out since Week 1 while Schmitz has been out since Week 4.
29. Commanders – C Nick Gates appears to be getting benched, with Tyler Larsen taking reps with the starters in practice this week. LG Saahdiq Charles is out this week, making way for either Chris Paul or Ricky Stromberg to start.
30. Bears – LT Braxton Jones was placed on short-term injured reserve after injuring his neck in Week 2.
31. Titans
32. Steelers

Biggest Week 8 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Eagles DL (4th) > Commanders OL (29th)
2. Jets DL (6th) > Giants OL (28th)
3. Browns DL (3rd) > Seahawks OL (24th)
4. Cowboys DL (1st) > Rams OL (20th)
5. Chiefs DL (9th) > Broncos OL (25th)

Biggest Week 8 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Chiefs OL (2nd) > Broncos DL (29th)
2. Browns OL (4th) > Seahawks DL (31st)
3. Chargers OL (8th) > Bears DL (32nd)

DL > OL

1. Eagles DL > Commanders OL

Key matchups: DTs Jalen Carter & Fletcher Cox vs. OGs Chris Paul/Ricky Stromberg & Sam Cosmi, edge rusher Haason Reddick vs. RT Andrew Wylie

Notes: The Eagles’ DL ranks sixth in pass-rush win rate, sixth in pass-rush win rate, and tied for fourth in QB hurry percentage. Rookie DT Jalen Carter is third in high-quality pressures per snap and second in pressure quality ratio. The Commanders’ OL ranks 14th in pass-block win rate, 28th in pressure percentage given up, and 32nd in sacks per pass attempt given up. C Nick Gates was benched this week for backup Tyler Larsen. LG Saahdiq Charles is out this week with an injury.

This one is fairly straightforward. The Eagles have an All-Star-caliber defensive front with the most disruptive interior force in the league through seven games in Jalen Carter with potential future Hall-of-Fame DT Fletcher Cox on the other side (who is still playing at a high level) with two edge rushers in Josh Sweat and Haason Reddick that combined with Carter have accounted for 86 total pressures, the best among any trio in the NFL. The Commanders are in a midseason crisis along their offensive line with a benching happening this week at center, an injured starter at left guard, and a QB in Sam Howell who is on pace to set the NFL record in single-season sacks thanks in large part to his deficiencies in the pocket.

2. Jets DL > Giants OL

Key matchups: DT Quinnen Williams vs. NYG LG Marcus McKethan, edge rushers Bryce Huff, John Franklin-Myers, and Jermaine Johnson vs. OTs Justin Pugh & Tyre Phillips or Evan Neal

Notes: The Jets’ DL ranks 18th in pass-rush win rate, third in pressure percentage, and first in QB hurry percentage. Edge rusher Bryce Huff is averaging one pressure every 3.6 snaps, the best rate in the NFL. Huff, Quinnen Williams, and John Franklin-Myers have a combined 84 pressures, the second-best rate among any trio in the NFL. The Giants’ OL ranks 28th in pass-block win rate, 31st in pressure percentage given up, and 29th in QB hurries given up. C John Michael Schmitz appears to be set to make his return after being out the last few weeks, while LT Andrew Thomas has a chance to play.

If Andrew Thomas can suit up, this would still be a notable mismatch of the week, although not as glaring. Thomas returned to practice on Thursday in a limited fashion after missing the last six weeks with a hamstring injury. The strength of the Jets’ pass rush starts with Quinnen Williams inside, who primarily rushes over the left guard, which would either be Marcus McKethan or Justin Pugh if Thomas returns. Either way, they are no match for Williams in isolated matchups. The next-best rushers primarily align on the defensive right side of the field, which