With Opening Day just a few weeks away, it’s time to preview each NFL awards market, starting with the big one: MVP. Before we dive into the details, always remember that when betting in NFL awards markets, it does not matter who you think should win; it matters who NFL awards voters will vote for and why.
| DraftKings MVP Odds as of Aug. 15 | ||
| Patrick Mahomes +475 | C.J. Stroud +850 | Josh Allen +900 |
| Joe Burrow +900 | Jordan Love +1400 | Jalen Hurts +1500 |
| Aaron Rodgers +1600 | Brock Purdy +1600 | Dak Prescott +1700 |
| Lamar Jackson +1700 | Jared Goff +2000 | Justin Herbert +2200 |
| Tua Tagovailoa +2500 | Anthony Richardson +3000 | Trevor Lawrence +3000 |
| Matthew Stafford +3000 | Kirk Cousins +3500 | Christian McCaffrey +4000 |
| Kyler Murray +5000 | Caleb Williams +5000 | Deshaun Watson +6000 |
| Baker Mayfield +7500 | Sam Darnold +10000 | Russell Wilson +10000 |
| Jayden Daniels +12000 | Geno Smith +12000 | Derek Carr +15000 |
| Will Levis +15000 | Daniel Jones +15000 | Bryce Young +15000 |
MVP Trends
- Every NFL MVP since 2013 has been a quarterback.
- All but two of those quarterbacks played for the top seed in their conference.
- In 2014, MVP Aaron Rodgers’ Packers were the No. 2 seed, but tied for the NFC’s best record.
- In 2016, MVP Matt Ryan’s Falcons were the NFC’s No. 2 seed with an 11-5 record.
- Ryan is the only MVP since 2013 whose team finished with less than 12 wins.
- Since 2007, RB Adrian Peterson is the only non-quarterback to win the NFL MVP.
- During that span, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson each won multiple MVPs.
- Brady and Manning each won three MVPs during that span, while Rodgers won four.
- Rodgers is the only back-to-back MVP winner during that span.
- Rodgers, Mahomes, and Jackson have collectively won each of the last six MVPs.
- Along with team success, high rankings in touchdowns, QBR, Rating, and EPA have been the most consistent statistical indicators among recent MVP winners.
- Since 2013, Cam Newton and Jackson’s win last year were the only two MVP winners to fall outside the top three in both QBR and Rating.
- Jackson’s win last year and Rodgers’ in 2021 were the only MVP winners since 2013 to fall outside the top three in passing touchdowns.
- EPA per play has been more consistent than total EPA, but both have also been consistent indicators.
- Five MVP winners with Opening Day odds of +3000 or greater have won the NFL MVP since 2013, including five of the last nine.
What We’re Looking for in an MVP Candidate
To make all of this simpler, ultimately we are looking for a quarterback that can receive the answer “yes” to both of these two questions:
- Can they lead their team to the top seed in their conference?
- Can they lead the league’s highest-scoring offense?
Whenever considering any quarterback in the MVP market, you need to be able to get the answer “yes” for at least one of those conditions to even consider a wager on them.
MVP Favorites
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